If Monterrey falls, Mexico falls - Analysis in Mexico Cartel War

This article is supposed to be an analysis about how important Monterrey is in the cartel war.

Special report: If Monterrey falls, Mexico falls

The first part of the article talks about someone being threatened by one of the cartels. It goes on to say this

In just four years, Monterrey, a manufacturing city of 4 million people 140 miles from the Texan border, has gone from being a model for developing economies to a symbol of Mexico's drug war chaos, sucked down into a dark spiral of gangland killings, violent crime and growing lawlessness.

Already drug killings have spread to Mexico's second city Guadalajara and while Mexico City has so far escaped serious drug violence, the capital does have a large illegal narcotics market. If the cartels were to declare war on its streets, Monterrey's experience shows that Mexico's long-neglected police and judiciary are not equipped to handle it.

Bolded the most important part of that paragraph.

"If we can't deal with the problem in Monterrey, with all the resources and the people we have here, then that is a serious concern for the rest of Mexico," said Javier Astaburuaga, chief financial officer at top Latin American drinks maker FEMSA, which helped to spark the city's industrialization in the early 1900s.

Bolded most important again. Calderon pledged more federal support to the city, but then the article says this.

But the day-to-day reality is a violence that is out of control. Just over 600 people have died in drug war killings in and around Monterrey so far this year, a sharp escalation from the 620 drug war murders in all of 2010.

And the year isnt half over yet...

The dead include local mayors and an undetermined number of innocent civilians, including a housewife caught in cross-fire while driving through the city, a just-married systems engineer shot dead by soldiers on his way to work and a young design student shot by a gunman in the middle of the afternoon on one of Monterrey's busiest shopping streets.

In addition to the amount of dead, many have gone missing at the same time.

More than a thousand people have disappeared across Nuevo Leon state, of which Monterrey is the capital, since 2007, according to the U.N.-backed human rights group CADHAC, which says they were forcibly recruited by the Gulf and Zetas gangs.
Human Rights Watch has documented more than a dozen forced disappearances over the same period that it says were carried out by soldiers, marines and police working for the cartels.

Mexico's best police have been infiltrated by the cartels to

They've dumped severed heads outside kindergartens and killed traffic police as they helped children cross the road. In a matter of minutes, they can shut down large parts of the city by hijacking vehicles at gunpoint to block highways with trucks and buses to allow hitmen to escape the army. Police, once considered Mexico's best, have been infiltrated by both gangs.

On two consecutive days in April, a record 30 people were killed in shootouts, mainly hitmen and police, but also a student who was run down by a fatally wounded police officer trying to escape gunmen.

The article is a very long read if anyone wants to read it. To sum the entire thing up, if Monterrey falls, Mexico has lost, or is just a thread from losing, the war on the cartels

Almost 40,000 people have died across the country since late 2006, and in Monterrey, the violence has escalated to a level that questions the government's ability to maintain order and ensure the viability of a region that is at the heart of Mexico's ambitions to become a leading world economy.

Interesting, S&F

America NEEDS to legalize drugs!

Maybe it's idealistic but it's being done in Portugal.

Portugal

Sorry, I don't want to de-rail or hijack ur thread

I just find it absurd, of course before taking power away from massive drug cartels by legalizing wouldn't ever happen before US declares this not only a problem for Mexico, but a National security threat and intervene in some way.

Seems like more violence with our southern neighbors is inevitable

reply to post by buni11687


Only a matter of time before the fourth front of war is opened for the US on a major scale. I hope it isn't so, but their are to many egos in play with this one. Secure the borders and stay on the sidelines, they'll be asking for help before to long.

reply to post by TDawgRex

Only a matter of time before the fourth front of war is opened for the US on a major scale.

Its problably only a matter of time until the US starts sending "special teams" to Mexico. Im sure they already have CIA and DEA already there but wouldnt be suprised if they sent some military personel there.

Heres a bit more from the article that I think is pretty substantial

Victims' families interviewed by CADHAC reported two cases of mass kidnappings of 40 to 50 young Mexicans during raids on working class districts in Monterrey in July 2010 and a string of individual cases over the past four years, often of men aged between 18 and 20 years old

Twelve of Nuevo Leon's rural towns are without any local police as cops have quit after brutal drug gang attacks.

Apparently, the best way to solve the situation is to ignore it.

U.S. officials admit privately that Monterrey's best hope is to contain the violence and get it off the front pages.
And there is still a lot of denial.
"Is there a problem? Yes there is, but it is a problem between the cartels, not against society," said Mayor Fernandez in his office, adorned with paintings, in San Pedro.

See? No problem, its just between the cartels, theyre not robbing, killing, mass graves, and stealing peoples kids......

reply to post by buni11687


I'm sure they are there. But their hands are tied due to ROE and political considerations. Most Mexicans do not consider the US as their friendly neighbor to the north historically.

reply to post by buni11687


The US has too much to lose by sending military units to the region. Not only the lives lost, but the mindset that would send to the public and the gangs.

The public would lose ALL confidence in their government, if they have any left. And the cartels would see it as a possible "declaration of war" which could open the US to the wars in a way never before seen or imagined.

I think the only way that will happen is if it escalates here first.

But great article regardless. Some important statistics there. Scary stuff. S&F

Great report.

Mexico is in big big big trouble.

What the US could do...

BRING BACK THE TROOPS. PUT THEM ON THE BORDER. LEGALIZE ALL DRUGS.

But of course that won't happen since the CIA loves their drug money and the government loves the violence to justify the police state and at some point will probably use the cartel violence to try to ban guns. It's just a matter of time before cartels start going crazy like in Mexico in the US... the corruption of cops in the US is almost as bad as Mexico nowadays.

reply to post by Vitchilo

It's just a matter of time before cartels start going crazy like in Mexico in the US... the corruption of cops in the US is almost as bad as Mexico nowadays.

Plus, Joe Arapio arrested a few of his own officers a few days ago because they were involved with the cartels in human trafficking/drugs/ect....They have already infiltrated our police, but they havent gone crazy yet, like they have in Mexico.

Just like you said, there's simple, easy solutions (I agree with them).......but this is the US.....not gonna happen anytime soon.