Christchurch Counciller announces potential for another 6 to 7 Magnitude within next 12 months

....and yet more:

Dr Quigs

NEW SCIENCE UPDATE ON 2011 CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE FOR PRESS AND PUBLIC



Seismic fear mongering or time to jump ship?

Since the September Mw 7.1 earthquake, GNS scientists have been using aftershock statistics-based models to ‘forecast’ the expected range of aftershocks of given magnitudes. Not to be confused with earthquake ‘predictions’, which require specific magnitudes, locations, depths, times, and methodological reproducibility estimates to be useful, this forecast model is based on a modified version of the long-established Omori’s Law for aftershocks, which states that the rate of aftershocks is proportional to the inverse of time since the mainshock. Thus, depending on the values of parameters specific to certain regions, whatever the odds of an aftershock are on the first day, the second day will have approximately 1/2 the odds of the first day and the tenth day will have approximately 1/10 the odds of the first day. These odds can be summed over various time-scales, and the longer the time scale, the higher the probability, even though the probability decreases with time.

The Royal Society

The Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisor, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, and the Royal Society of New Zealand have been working with the New Zealand science community to help with public understanding about earthquake prediction and future earthquake risks for Christchurch and New Zealand as a whole. Together, they have released an information paper today.

There is a link to the .pdf download which is well worth the read.

That's good information right there, aorAki.

It's a shame you're such an acerbic bugger that no one takes any notice.



*This post was brought to you by Stone's Mac.
It's part of how I get through the post-quake trauma.

reply to post by aorAki


Good to have your input.

The main point about this post was more the way it was annouced/handled by the MEDIA. They seem to enjoy scaremongering but have the audacity to attack others that do the same (Ken Ring).

Not defending KR but I can't stand the double standards. From the people I've spoken to locally since the 'news', it's a hot topic and most people were very upset by seeing this announcement.

Keep up the good work.

Yes, I agree regarding the Media's handling of this announcement.
They do seem to be after sensationalist headlines more than informing people.

Hope you and yours are safe...there was a nice little 3.6 this morning around 7:30, nothing major, but it still gets the adrenalin going!

reply to post by aorAki


Yep, we're managing okay but the 3.5 last night was only about 2km's from us.

Interesting thing that I've noticed and have told others, is that about 2-3 days before a 5+ aftershock, I get a real strange 'energy' sensation in my body (unfortunately am experiencing a strong energy sensation at present).

As soon as a 5+ hits, I feel fine again, until the next pre-quake build up.

I've been correct several times now and as you appear to be well experienced with quakes, I wonder whether you've ever heard of anyone else experiencing similar sensations?

I do wear a Scalar Energy Pendant, so maybe it's possible that it's helping tune me into pre-quake magnetic stress?

This is a good explanation of what they've been doing.




I used to think I could be prescient of earthwards...especially in the '90's when I used to clean buildings and would get a weird feeling every so often (dizzy/shakey) and would tell people there would be a felt earthquake within two weeks(for example), but since the September 'quake this hasn't happened for me beyond the underlying/background feeling of something stirring...interesting though,and within the realm of 'quack science',but not instantly dismissible by me (even though I'm a Geologist) as I can empathise
with the feelings having experienced them myself...I don't know why I don't anymore,as such, though I do on most evenings hear what I describe as a semi sub audible rumble that is manifest. The Earth here is active, that is for sure....

A mate of mine in New ealand.. shrugs it off as " we are the shaky Isle"

Its a moral that you will get hit again, some bigger, most not so.

Cuppa tea is probably your best bet, or get outta Dodge.

Originally posted by mungodave
A mate of mine in New ealand.. shrugs it off as " we are the shaky Isle"

Easy to 'shrug it off' when you didn't lose a mate or two....nice one,West Islander.

Sure, "shakey isle(s) that's a given,and we haven't had the Alpine Fault rupture yet...it's overdue,or thereabouts.It depends on where it ruptures and the length of rupture as to how catastrophic it will be,but rest assured,it will be catastrophic to some.

We're not the only 'shakey isles'. We do have complex fault geometry at the plate boundary.

I refuse,however,to live with a Fortress mentality.

I prefer to live,with knowledge of the Earth's potential, but not in fear.

I do feel for my pets however. They can't rationalise it like we can. Poor buggers.

Originally posted by mungodaveCuppa tea is probably your best bet, or get outta Dodge.

Riiiiiiiiiiight...so where do we go? Any suggestions?


Personally,I'm not leaving.These are exceptional and exciting times. I'm not going to Hamner (Hope Fault),Wellington (plate boundary) and am here to stay as I am tangata te wai poenamo.



Tell me more about this 'scalar pendant',SpaceJockey1




my heart is here, my spirit is here,my blood is here.

reply to post by aorAki


Hey..I meant no disrespect to you.

Didnt know you lost mates there.

My condolences.



My point was more to the resilience of Kiwis.

I stand by that.

Mungo

It's o.k.Mungo, We ARE resilient...it just gets hard at times and my liver is paying a small price as a coping mechanism...How's life in the West Island? Apologies for my acerbism...coping mechanisms manifest in many ways. I'm just glad we have few poisonous creatures as well!

Originally posted by aorAki
It's o.k.Mungo, We ARE resilient...it just gets hard at times and my liver is paying a small price as a coping mechanism...How's life in the West Island? Apologies for my acerbism...coping mechanisms manifest in many ways. I'm just glad we have few poisonous creatures as well!

edit on 2-6-2011 by aorAki because: (no reason given)

I have always thought we should be one proud and diverse nation,

having learned of both the English occupation of both these southern lands, and (# my #ed key doesnt work)
the story of our AN*ACs.


But that is for another thread.

Western Island fairly soaked from 4 days rain, but life is good.

Mungo

reply to post by aorAki

Tell me more about this 'scalar pendant',SpaceJockey1

Thanks for your feedback aorAki. The Scalar Energy pendent is created from natural minerals (99.9% Germanium) found in volcanic lava, that are fused and bonded together at a molecular level, using advanced Korean nano technology.

It emits 'scalar' energy (Tesla discovery), that interacts with our bio-energy field, providing a number of benefits. One being to help protect the body from harmful electromagnetic waves (microwaves, radio waves, cell etc).

If you want to know more, I can send you details via IM, or if you're in Christchurch I can show you some tests where you can experience the immediate changes, upon wearing one?

I might pop in sometime

Survey reveals previously unknown fault structures in Canterbury

^ This just in.

It will be interesting seeing the full report.

reply to post by aorAki


I'll have the coffee ready

Yes, the latest news just confirms that we are now living in a highly active earthquake period.

At least things seem to have settled down over the last few days...but I do remember thinking exactly that, just before Feb 22nd.

Take care and keep us informed of any news.

Yeah its too bad some people just read the headline.
Deeper in the story was that Christchurch will experience the same level of earthquake risk now as places like Wellington, Taupo, New Plymouth and Tauranga do.

Hey look on the bright side, there is a 75% chance there will not be a Mag 6-7 quakes in the next 12 months.

Lets start re-building

Just had a 5.5 aftershock, which is the 6th largest since the 7.1 in Sept 2010...wouldn't like to be a builder working on any damaged buildings right now.

I was about to start brushing my teeth and got out of the bathroom pronto! This one rumbled strongly for a lot longer than many of the previous ones.

At least my pre-quake 'sensations' have eased off now

Wow. seems like he got that one right ,.
what was it a 6.0?

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


We ended up getting a 6.3 an hour after the 5.6 (upgraded from 5.5)!

Another SCAREY experience and they're still predicting the we could have another on between 6.0 and 7.0

Been getting that nasty PRE-QUAKE experience in the last 12 hours.