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NEW SCIENCE UPDATE ON 2011 CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE FOR PRESS AND PUBLIC
Seismic fear mongering or time to jump ship?
Since the September Mw 7.1 earthquake, GNS scientists have been using aftershock statistics-based models to ‘forecast’ the expected range of aftershocks of given magnitudes. Not to be confused with earthquake ‘predictions’, which require specific magnitudes, locations, depths, times, and methodological reproducibility estimates to be useful, this forecast model is based on a modified version of the long-established Omori’s Law for aftershocks, which states that the rate of aftershocks is proportional to the inverse of time since the mainshock. Thus, depending on the values of parameters specific to certain regions, whatever the odds of an aftershock are on the first day, the second day will have approximately 1/2 the odds of the first day and the tenth day will have approximately 1/10 the odds of the first day. These odds can be summed over various time-scales, and the longer the time scale, the higher the probability, even though the probability decreases with time.
The Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisor, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, and the Royal Society of New Zealand have been working with the New Zealand science community to help with public understanding about earthquake prediction and future earthquake risks for Christchurch and New Zealand as a whole. Together, they have released an information paper today.
Originally posted by mungodave
A mate of mine in New ealand.. shrugs it off as " we are the shaky Isle"
Originally posted by mungodaveCuppa tea is probably your best bet, or get outta Dodge.
Originally posted by aorAki
It's o.k.Mungo, We ARE resilient...it just gets hard at times and my liver is paying a small price as a coping mechanism...How's life in the West Island? Apologies for my acerbism...coping mechanisms manifest in many ways. I'm just glad we have few poisonous creatures as well!
edit on 2-6-2011 by aorAki because: (no reason given)
Tell me more about this 'scalar pendant',SpaceJockey1