If Yellowstone ever blows, what are the odds of survival if you live nearby?

Originally posted by Mactire
If we're talking super volcano then I'd say zip.
Ever seen that scene in 2012?



It would be worse than that.

edit on 23-5-2011 by Mactire because: (no reason given)

Yeah... but I still have hopes of surviving. I know it's impossible. But I don't like to think in absolutes!

reply to post by Denco


The answer to your question is about 32 minutes into the following video...

In Denver? Nah I think you have probably a 30-60% survival chance.

Your main worry would be just ash fallout contaminating your home's air system.

Not only would it contaminate the air in the house, it will leave residue on everything all over the place. It will clog the air filters probably rather quickly, and it can damage countless other systems laying about. Anything that dust hurts, ash is going to obliterate I am afraid...

reply to post by Denco


Then you're like me. Someone else posted a thread the other day about "If you were faced with the end of the world, would you bother to try and survive?"
I answered that I didn't care if it were a thousand foot tsunami, I don't have it in me to just watch like a deer in headlights while I was consumed by whatever doom was coming my way. I'm gonna survive... or die trying.

I thought Krakatoa was the biggest volcano to go (that we know of). However, it seems that Tambora, Indonesia was the biggest.

Tambora erupted in 1815 killing 92 000 people making 1816 the year without a summer as the global climate effects were felt. Aerosols from the Tambora eruption blocked out sunlight and reduced global temperatures by 3 deg C. Europe missed a summer, and India had crop failures following the Tambora eruption. 100 cubic km of magma was erupted. Ten thousand people were killed immediately from the pyroclastic flows and the eventual toll due to starvation and disease may have been as high as 117,000. The eruption caused a tsunami with a wave height of 10 m.

Article found here.

Here are the top ten.

Yellowstone is in the top five ancient volcanoes according to the same site, being 10 times as large as Tambora. Yikes.

An eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera would be a mass extinction event.

Originally posted by Mactire
reply to post by Denco

 

Then you're like me. Someone else posted a thread the other day about "If you were faced with the end of the world, would you bother to try and survive?"
I answered that I didn't care if it were a thousand foot tsunami, I don't have it in me to just watch like a deer in headlights while I was consumed by whatever doom was coming my way. I'm gonna survive... or die trying.

Amen my friend. And IF we are going to go out, it better be from a freaking natural disaster and not by our own hands (war). I'm going to be insanely angry in the afterlife if I go out by a terrorist attack.

Originally posted by Segador
An eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera would be a mass extinction event.

I think it may vary.

A smaller eruption, say 2-3x the size of Tambora, would be survivable.

But something 10-15 times larger? Yes in the long term situation it would probably become a mini-ice age like the article above suggests.

Volcanoes don't always erupt with the same ferocity as they did the last times. It all depends on topography and chemical composition of the magma, levels of pressure built inside, etc.

The geologists probably have facts and figures ready to go that would tell us exactly what kind of size this eruption may be. But I still think it's variable and undetermined even if supplied with a large data set to do calculations with.

If Yellowstone is anything like the Toba eruption over 70,000-years-ago, we are in for a world of hurt. The Toba super volcano nearly wiped out the whole human race.

Toba catastrophe theory

The related catastrophe theory holds that this supervolcanic event plunged the planet into a 6-to-10-year volcanic winter, which resulted in the world's human population being reduced to 10,000 or even a mere 1,000 breeding pairs, creating a bottleneck in human evolution.

I would not want to be around when monster awakens beneath Yellowstone National Park. I can't even fathom how bad the devastation would be? I guess if it goes up, the best place be is somewhere else. Scores of deaths from the explosion, ash deposits, and a nuclear winter; the living could quite possibly envy the dead? I don't prescribe to the doom and gloom being thrown around lately, but this scenario gives me the creeps more than any.

Want to know exactly what the U.S. would be like if Yellowstone ever decided to go off? Watch the movie 'The Road'. If I'm not mistaken, that was the circumstance which caused the world to die in that film.

Originally posted by saltdog
reply to post by cloaked4u

 

It would probably trigger major earthquakes with all the magma and lava fliing out of the ground, the pressure on the plates would change and it could easily be an end game for all of north america...then would it trigger sunami waves to wipe out other coastal areas in asia, europe, africa and south america??

It wouldn't be something that we would recover from for several generations..or ever.

i know

reply to post by clay2 baraka


Hey thanks for posting that video.

It contains all the educated info one could want to answer the thread title question properly.

But perhaps the key was when Jake explained that best they can tell, the magma chamber is only at ~10% melt- when they estimate that 50% melt is needed for the pressure to be sufficient enough for a genuine super eruption.

And for this reason, I think we can all take comfort in the fact that IF an eruption were to occur there in our lifetimes, due to the low melt percentage the eruption would most likely be smaller, much smaller. Hopefully not much more than Mt. St. Helens or perhaps a bit bigger. But not on the scale of the eruption that occurred 2.0 million years ago- the biggest by far, so far. THAT would be insane, and yeah, millions could die, or worse.

But every indication modern science can come up with is saying that it is just not likely. And the fact that eruptions have been getting smaller each time help to further lessen the threat Yellowstone poses.

Now ladies and gentlemen I have a tendency to be alarmist like many here- and I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. Better safe than sorry, right?

But one thing that has me breathing a bit easier on the threat posed by Yellowstone is simply to study the place, the indications, and stay on top of Yellowstone updates issued through the YVO.

Here is their latest:

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY MONTHLY UPDATE
Monday, May 2, 2011 2:58 PM MDT (Monday, May 2, 2011 20:58 UTC)


YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW #1205-01-)
44°25'48" N 110°40'12" W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN

Earthquake Summary: During the month of April 2011, 91 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone National Park region. The largest was a magnitude 2.2 event on April 13 at 7:11 AM MDT, located about 15 miles southeast of West Thumb, YNP. A small swarm of 24 earthquakes was recorded on April 14, located about 5 miles east of West Thumb, YNP, with magnitudes ranging from M 2.0 to M -0.1. For a map of recent earthquakes, please see:

www.seis.utah.edu...

Ground Deformation Summary: The period of caldera uplift that began in 2004 ended about one year ago. Since then, the caldera has been subsiding, though seasonal deformation from ground water changes may temporarily mask the trend. Please see: www.uusatrg.utah.edu... for a map of GPS stations in the Yellowstone vicinity. For a graph of daily GPS positions at White Lake, within the Yellowstone caldera, please see: pboweb.unavco.org...×eries=raw.

Sure she grunts, moans, inflates, deflates, and even pounds her foot with earthquake swarms, but until all the conditions become ripe, the chances are she represents not anywhere near the danger that is thrown so loosely about by fearmongers like me. Because I will admit to having been one of them, and to a degree still am. Just to a much lesser degree now that I put some time into learning about it.

The real danger the park poses is the always present threat of smaller, but yet still locally deadly hydrothermal explosions, which are not magmatic in nature. And of course the possibilities of landslides from earthquakes- which is what proved to be the most deadly after the big quake of Hebgen Lake. That's what did the killing, not the volcano or any hydrothermal explosions...

Science can definitely be a means to temper fear. I suggest in this case any who doubt do some research on your own so that you too can live with Yellowstone comfortably- and even make it through the next sure earthquake swarm to come soon- intact and not worried.

reply to post by Denco

Is there any chance for survival?

No chance in hell if it's a full force eruption and your close to it, as in, if your in the state and within a couple hundred miles of it.

The whole of north america would have problems from the eruption such as mass deaths from food shortages do to the ash which would block out the sun and cover everything and every farm field in ash killing crops and plants alike even weeds would not grow. And the ash would get into everything so no driving around and flying around for a while, but all of that and more is waiting for the lucky ones, who are not close to the eruption and a couple of states over, the ash would even reach around the world though in less devastating ways, and possibly cause a little ice age for a couple of generations.

Heres a short vid depicting what it could possibly look like. And what north america would look like after it blows, basically covered in ice because of all the ash that would block out the sun in north america, and drop the temperature around the world a few degrees.


But of-course there is more then one super-volcano out there around the world. If you were to search the web you would be able to find were they are but heres Wikipedia on some of them. Supervolcano

reply to post by Heartisblack


it would also take the life of the planet

If someone had a nice ranch near Yellowstone that they didn't want to take care of for fear of their lives and they are looking for a good caretaker, someone who gardens and loves dogs, then look me up! I would live right up next to Yellowstone because if it did blow I would be first in line!

I live in Colorado as well but I'm not going to fear Yellowstone blowing up. Where exactly is a safe place to live where there isn't threat of volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. Live your life and enjoy...stop worrying about the next catastrophe that might happen.

Originally posted by taccj9903
I live in Colorado as well but I'm not going to fear Yellowstone blowing up. Where exactly is a safe place to live where there isn't threat of volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. Live your life and enjoy...stop worrying about the next catastrophe that might happen.

edit on 24-5-2011 by taccj9903 because: typo

The uk is pretty safe lol