Zogby Poll has Kerry at 48% and Bush at 43%

A new poll shows Kerry isn't really adding that many voters but he has made more persons undecided.

The poll took place between Jul. 26-29 and was conducted via telephone interviews to 1,001 likely American voters.

Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy
(CPOD) Jul. 31, 2004 � The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards holds the lead in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby America. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers, while 43 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Eight per cent of respondents are undecided.

I still don't know if Kerry will win, he can't seem to pass the 50% mark.

50% or more in modern terms is a virtual mandate. Unlikely for anyone.

But yes the poll (taken the week of the convention; all pre- Kerry's speech) does show some move from Bush toward undecided (about 3 points). Though not toward Kerry.

That would be your que Libertarians.

I think when the RNC happens, Kerry will get more votes. Bush's lack of public speaking prowess will hurt him, and the speakers that at the convention won't represent Bush's agenda (they will be moderates, to try to appeal to moderates) and the media will remind people of that.

Don't ever ever EVER trust the polls.

They are but a "guideline" and the margin of error normally eliminates all semblance of authority.

I'd be interested in seeing a poll now that Kerry has given his speech.

According to Drudge, the network ratings for the DNC were pretty high the night he spoke (the rest of the week got very low ratings, but one would expect that). His speech was good. My questions are - did the undecideds watch it and will they view him as a moderate as a result of the speech?

I think Bush will give a good speech at the RNC too. He's usually pretty effective in his delivery of pre-scripted material. But his speaking skills stink when 'off the cuff', and I bet he'll get creamed in the debates.

Originally posted by Nerdling
Don't ever ever EVER trust the polls.

They are but a "guideline" and the margin of error normally eliminates all semblance of authority.

They do at least give us some idea of how the rest of the population feels.

Right now, it seems like it will be a really tight race.

AceOfBase says

Zogby Poll has Kerry at 48% and Bush at 43%

A new poll shows Kerry isn't really adding that many voters but he has made more persons undecided.

You haven't cited the poll information that is really damaging to George Bush. Here is a summary from Holden at Eschaton. The first paragraph is a quote from the Zogby website.

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team's attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.

The ugly details-

Among Hispanic Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%

Among Southern Voters:
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%

Viewed Favorably in the South:
Kerry 55%
Bush 55%

Approve of Bush's Job Performance in the South: 44%

US Headed in the Right Direction in the South: 43%

Among Young Voters (18-29) :
Kerry 53%
Bush 33%

Among Single Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%

In the Red States:
Kerry 46%
Bush 48%

In the Blue States:
Kerry 50%
Bush 38%

Among People Who Did Not Vote in 2000:
Kerry 50%
Bush 25%

atrios.blogspot.com...

Unfortuately this poll doesn't mean anything because it is negated by our idiotic electoral college system. The majority of people could vote for a candidate, but his opponent with less votes could win because he or she gained more electoral votes... A shame really.

Originally posted by HoonieSkoba
I'd be interested in seeing a poll now that Kerry has given his speech.

Here's a Newsweek poll from the 29th and 30th:

Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy:
...according to a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates released by Newsweek. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democrats, while 42 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Three per cent of respondents would support independent candidate Ralph Nader and vice-presidential contender Peter Camejo, while six per cent are undecided.

Support for Bush seems to be dropping.
Still a few months away from the election though.
Plenty of time for the numbers to change.


[edit on 1-8-2004 by AceOfBase]

Originally posted by AceOfBase
Support for Bush seems to be dropping.

Don't you mean support for Kerry seems to be dropping?


From the article:

the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

Ouch. That's gotta hurt.


[edit on 1-8-2004 by gurnio]

Originally posted by gurnio

Originally posted by AceOfBase
Support for Bush seems to be dropping.

Don't you mean support for Kerry seems to be dropping?


From the article:

the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

Ouch. That's gotta hurt.

The Gallup website shows Kerry leading among registered voters but not likely voters:

Gallup:
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the Democratic Convention in Boston, finds that the presidential race remains close, with President George W. Bush receiving 50% support among likely voters, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 47%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry leads 50% to 47%.

768 persons is a really small poll group compared to the Newsweek (1,190 ) and Zogby (1,001) polls.

[edit on 1-8-2004 by AceOfBase]

[edit on 1-8-2004 by AceOfBase]

I understand your point AofB.

Just showing that polls can be constructed to show almost anything...

At this point in the election cycle, I think its unwise to put too much stock in them.

You may or may not agree with me, and that's fine.

It can become extremely unproductive to argue about poll numbers.

[edit on 1-8-2004 by gurnio]