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"The universe is probably littered with one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision."
Originally posted by Saint Exupery
Yet another reason why I love xkcd.
For the record, there were 12 men. Three have died, leaving nine.
"Pete" Conrad (Deceased - Motorcycle accident)*
Alan Shepard (Deceased - Leukemia)
Jim Irwin (Deceased - Heart attack)
*Conrad is my hero: Naval aviator, test pilot, astronaut, set an endurance record (8 days) ,was the first person to perform orbital rendezvous less than one orbit after liftoff, flew the highest manned Earth orbit ever (850 miles - into the lower Van Allen Belt, performed the first precision landing on the Moon, performed a risky space walk to save the Skylab space station. Known for his raunchy sense of humor and zest for life, at age 69 he missed a turn at high-speed on his motorcycle. The End. Now THAT'S a life!
Have you ever heard of a thing called "context"?
Originally posted by IamJustanAmerican
Please read the thread title again.
The moon is not "another world".
Yes, that's exactly what I used to think. And you're right that the dramatic expansion of the sun will occur in the several billion years from now. And I think you're overestimating the effect of the moon moving away. Yes it will have an effect, but not as dramatic as the sun, I suspect.
Originally posted by Illustronic
reply to post by Arbitrageur
The moon receding away from earth could have a faster effect to cool earth's tectonic activity than the sun expanding, which really won't happen until the sun is on its death march, during its last billion years
Just that 10% increase in the sun's output over the next billion years will have a devastating effect on the Earth. They go on to confirm what you were saying will happen much later:
Once the solar luminosity is 10% higher than its current value, the average global surface temperature reaches 320 K (47 °C). The atmosphere will become a humid greenhouse leading to a runaway evaporation of the oceans. At this point, models of the Earth's future environment demonstrate that the stratosphere would contain increasing levels of water. These water molecules will be broken down through photodissociation by solar ultraviolet radiation, allowing hydrogen to escape the atmosphere. The net result would be a loss of the world's sea water in about 1.1 billion years from the present.
So what you said is true, however my point was, Earth will be mostly uninhabitable for humans long before that happens, so we probably have less than a billion years, not billions. Not that it will affect us personally, but it would be nice to think our species might be able to survive the death of the Earth, and go on living in another colony elsewhere.
The most rapid part of the Sun's expansion into a red giant occurs during the final stages, when the Sun is about 12 billion years old. It is likely to expand to swallow both Mercury and Venus, reaching a maximum radius of 1.2 astronomical units (180 Gm). The Earth will interact tidally with the Sun's outer atmosphere, which would serve to decrease the orbital radius. Drag from the chromosphere of the Sun would also reduce the Earth's orbit. These effects will act to counterbalance the mass loss by the Sun, and the Earth will most likely be engulfed by the sun.
Peraonlly I particularly liked the actuarial allowances at the end of the graph.
Regarding "Water world" Earth, yes and no. Yes models show the possibility the polar ice, glacial ice including the Greenland ice sheet could melt, significantly raising the sea level to the point it would put a large part of the current state of Florida underwater, as well as similar low-lying areas. But it wouldn't be a complete water world:
Originally posted by Illustronic
Oh yes, it is my own (maybe flawed) assumption that earth would become a 'water world' long before a desert dry rock–the death of man. A layman's logic of heating would support that. It could be very short lived but consider as the water rises, the atmosphere thickens, and that aids to block the increasing solar heating, (no AGW debate here) should internal heat of the earth cool from a reseeding moon, at a faster pace than the sun heating, may even-out, sort of? But you show numbers to suggest I'm wrong, which is intriguing.
My house is at about 125 meters above sea level. So if sea level rises 75 meters, worst case scenario, my house will still be 50 meters above sea level.
If all the icecaps in the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 60-75 meters (200-250 feet)