Lies and Statistics, and a Thread that's not about the Certificate

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posted on Apr, 28 2011 @ 03:21 PM
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Many of you probably hope the Obama remains a one term President and never gets a chance to fully finish his 11th dimensional chess game of Socialism where Executives, bankers, and mega corporations continue to make exorbitant profits while the middle class collapses under the weight of taxes that haven't been this low in nearly a century.

Unfortunately for some of you, Obama will probably win a second term. This isn't due to some blinding love I have of Obama: it is simply due to various statistics and facts that are either a) historically accurate or b) evolving to enable a second term. This is the first thread I'm going to do here on why it is likely he will be re-elected; in the spirit of being cool I will also do a thread on how he can be defeated.

The MSM and its 24 hour news cycle would have you believe that the race can still be competitive. And while I guess it can be if certain stars align, it is probable that it won't be.

First, the facts on incumbency:

1. The bully pulpit. El Presidente Che Obama has the power of the bully pulpit and his President hat is always on. As a singular entity representing 1/3 of our government, Obama commands a lot of attention, 24/7. The media salivates over his every word (this is true regardless of party), so he can pretty easily set the agenda. See the birth certificate issue

2. Infrastructure. OFA! Where's my brown shirt? Obama already has a massive campaign infrastructure in place, as well as a grass roots fundraising structure through Actblue and OFA that will allow him to probably raise $1 billion or more in funds for the race.

3. Incumbency. Fact is, incumbents are usually re-elected. Unless some major crises that the President bungles happens, or the economy tanks, or we don't raise the debt ceiling (some of which many of us talk about wanting to see but none of which many of us really should want to experience), incumbents usually enjoy a +5-6 average rating compared to their challenger. And depending on the crises, it can actually help Obama. Right now, all of O's challengers seem pretty lame or unelectable.

4. Electorate. Sorry guys, the 2010 electorate is not going to be the 2012 electorate. Odds are it will look like the 2008 electorate, if not more so due to demographic changes. There aren't old white babies replacing the old white voters who put the smack down on Democrats in 2010, but there is an ever-growing pool of minority voters replacing them. Not good when you consider that a Democrat usually wins the Hispanic vote by a 3:1 margin and the African American Vote by a 10:1 margin. Also, youths support Democrats heavily, regardless of their race.

When your voter base is the part of the population that's getting old and kicking the bucket, your electoral success is going to be limited, and plus, those youth and minority voters historically don't vote in midterms, but they do vote for President. And plus plus, Republicans have done a really good job on alienating anyone that isn't older, whiter, straighter, richer paradigm.

Now super awesome visual aids!

Here is the 2008 map:



What is the best possible map for Democrats? Here is my projection if Rs nominate a completely unrealistic candidate for the office (Newt, Trump, Palin). Or if the Republican has a major gaffe/scandal:



As you can see not much changes - but Montana, Missouri, South Carolina, and Georgia flip. Honestly, these three are tossups to me right now even without a bad Republican candidate, but I think nominating a loon (like Trump) would definitely put them in the Democrat's corner. These four states have all been trending left as the minority populations boom and the rural and blue collar white population steadily shrinks.

Now here is a map representing the bare minimum Obama would need for re-election:



There are three key states in this map to Obama's re-election: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Nevada. If he loses any of these three states and all the rest remain Republican, he loses the Presidency. The fact is, he isn't likely to lose all of those states plus one of those three. Colorado, Nebraska's Omaha district, New Hampshire, and Virginia all have a good chance at remaining Democratic to me. Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a Republican since 1992, and even in 2010 Republicans couldn't sweep Nevada. Unless Marco Rubio is the VP pick, I think Florida goes to the Democrats as well.

So, if you take a step back and look at the statistics, the trends, and actual electoral map, it's pretty easy to see how Obama's re-election isn't just probable, but likely. Larry Sabato, a noted elections scholar, has his 2012 map up and while he does his best to sound fair, Democrats start out with 247 states that lean their while way Republicans have 180. That's a big hill to climb if you're a Republican, and probably why no one serious has really come out to say they're running. Sabato's article here.

Well, there you go! If anyone is interested at looking at these maps and wanting an explanation of why I think a state will go the way it will go, or if you disagree, let me know! I'd love to discuss it.

Oh, here's my prediction:



South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri are tossups to me. New Hampshire only flips if Romney is the nominee. South Carolina may be in play because of the DNC convention, and Florida is in play because it has a bunch of old people and a bunch of young minorities, and not much inbetween. Missouri is a purple state that has been trending blue, and almost went last time. As you can see, even with these tossups, Obama still easily breaks the 270 needed to win.




posted on Apr, 28 2011 @ 05:06 PM
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Yay! An actual election thread in the election forum! S&F just for that.


At this time, unless something earth-shattering happens in the coming year, I think your predictions are just about right. It will be interesting to look back at this thread and see how you do.

I think Obama will win simply because of the fracturing in the Republican party. Some will vote R, but I think many will vote Independent.
edit on 4/28/2011 by Benevolent Heretic because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 30 2011 @ 09:23 PM
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reply to post by Avenginggecko
 


While I disagree with a lot of your personal analysis, it's a nice collection of information and some great food for thought.

Thanks for a good read.



posted on Apr, 30 2011 @ 09:25 PM
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Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic


I think Obama will win simply because of the fracturing in the Republican party. Some will vote R, but I think many will vote Independent.


Which is likely by design to make sure they dont win,as they did in 08 and as the Dems likely did in 04 with Kerry.



posted on May, 2 2011 @ 09:12 AM
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Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
Yay! An actual election thread in the election forum! S&F just for that.


At this time, unless something earth-shattering happens in the coming year, I think your predictions are just about right. It will be interesting to look back at this thread and see how you do.

I think Obama will win simply because of the fracturing in the Republican party. Some will vote R, but I think many will vote Independent.
edit on 4/28/2011 by Benevolent Heretic because: (no reason given)


I agree. I think you can pretty easily split the party into two groups: deficit peacocks and social conservatives. The peacocks are the Mitt Romney wing of candidates that support policies like Paul Ryan's horrible budget while the social conservatives are the Palinites of the nominees. One of the reason Huckabee typically does better in Republican primary polling and with the general populace is because he seems to be the closest candidate to pleasing both sides of the party.

Most of the candidates are going to make one side happy at the expense of the other. Obviously, the social conservatives aren't going to be elated with a mormon like Romney as a candidate, and every moderate Republican is going to reconsider casting a vote for Trump or (God forbid) Palin.



posted on May, 2 2011 @ 09:13 AM
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Originally posted by incrediblelousminds
reply to post by Avenginggecko
 


While I disagree with a lot of your personal analysis, it's a nice collection of information and some great food for thought.

Thanks for a good read.


Thanks for the comment. Do you agree with the projections? What do you think the outcome of the election would be?





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