In store for the US: How's your Mandarin?

Disclaimer: For those that don't know me, I am not an economist. Not even an accountant. I don't so much as play one in my mind. I rely on TurboTax for my tax filings. This puts me on a par with many of you and by his own admission, the current United States Secretary of the Treasury. Thus, one might say I know little to nothing about this topic aside what I read or hear in the MSM.


Here are a number of current reports that I think are intimately related to the future of the United States.

The first from the Wall Street Journal "Market Watch"

The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

This next piece from December of 2010 and from a website promoting survivalist products and gold and so we read this knowing fully those influences on the writer and article. With that in mind...

Why Are The Chinese Gobbling Up Gold Like There Is No Tomorrow?

The following from Reuters in March:

China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold

From that report:

He added that Chinese firms and households had purchased more than 300 tonnes of gold last year, and that it would have been hard for the government to buy any more with foreign reserve funds.

And somewhat related, this from NPR:

Gadhafi's Gold

From that report:

This is one of the big reasons why some people like physical gold: It's this valuable thing that you can actually hold in your hand. Unlike savings and brokerage accounts, gold can't disappear with a few taps on a keyboard.

And finally, this from December 2010:

The 2011 Housing Market Outlook: Unsettled, Underwater and Unsold

From this article:

Some real estate analysts foresee another three years of price declines as the massive inventory of underwater and foreclosed homes is slowly sold off, and we need look no further than the basics of supply and demand to understand why: Analysts estimate that as many as 12 million more properties will be put up for sale over the next few years. If about 4 million homes are sold annually, then it would take three years to clear the backlog.

reply to post by Hemisphere


I just read this report, and while I can honestly say that I am shocked at how quickly they will be surpassing us, is anyone really surprised?

I mean, I'm just a 20 year old without a whole lot of economic knowledge, but I am certain that this is exactly what one should expect when the most populated nation on the planet goes through their industrial revolution. The fact of the matter is that the United States makes up roughly 1/20 of the world population while China is at about 1/6.
China has almost 5 times as many people as their are in the United States, so in theory, if they were as productive and efficient (and I am in NO WAY suggesting that we are efficient by ANY standards) as we are, they should have an economy 5 times as large as ours.
They have hundreds of millions of people living in absolute poverty with no freedom, no democracy (again, I'm not suggesting that we have that either) and hundreds of problems of their own.

It would be even more shocking if China DIDN'T surpass us, honestly. I'm really not too worried though, seeing as how an individual in China brings in less than $4,000 a year on average.
With their one child policy creating a situation where 2 parents need to rely on 1 child to support them, their population is going to age rapidly like Japan's. This will create additional problems as well. Their military is outdated and compared to ours, is not a threat. Who knows what the future will hold in that regard, but who knows what military secrets we have locked away?
Frankly, I'm not scared, this is to be expected.

They ain't making any more of the stuff. - Will Rogers on buying land.

What is the conspiratorial premise in all of this? I see it this way, the US dollar is on the verge of collapse. (We will all know just a bit more on if and when in the coming week.) The housing market is already in shambles with reports that better times are not on the horizon. Many predict home values to go lower with more foreclosures. The Chinese already own much in the United States as well as holding our debt. They are encouraging (have been for years) their citizens to buy into gold and silver as hedges against inflation rather than purchasing homes/real estate. If the dollar were to collapse (further), many Chinese would be in excellent position to purchase homes and land in the United States. Americans have not taken advantage of the housing glut in this country because of the continuing poor economy and further devaluation of the dollar will only continue that trend. The Chinese will be well positioned to take over the United States, not by military force but by frugality, patience and foresight. "Hoist with our own petard"‎.

They will eventually need to expand the housing and job opportunities for their growing population. We didn't see this coming?

From October 2007:

China's housing crunch

February 2011:

China's Low-Income Housing Shortage

From this article:

Looking at the bigger picture, China's government is motivated by the goal of social harmony in the Chinese society. It knows that if it does not achieve this goal, there will be social unrest and protests. This is the goal behind the "protect 8" policy of maintaining at least an 8% growth rate in the annual GDP.

That goal will not be met on an overcrowded, polluted and somewhat denuded Chinese mainland. Just my humble opinion.

reply to post by enlighteneddante


Thanks for posting, I'm sorry I was unable to get the whole premise of the thread posted before you commented. This despite having my second post at the ready. Such are the vageries of posting threads on ATS. Especially those with numerous links, external texts and such.

Originally posted by enlighteneddante

It would be even more shocking if China DIDN'T surpass us, honestly. I'm really not too worried though, seeing as how an individual in China brings in less than $4,000 a year on average.

With their one child policy creating a situation where 2 parents need to rely on 1 child to support them, their population is going to age rapidly like Japan's. This will create additional problems as well. Their military is outdated and compared to ours, is not a threat. Who knows what the future will hold in that regard, but who knows what military secrets we have locked away?

Frankly, I'm not scared, this is to be expected.

Some excellent points. That said, you've supported my contention that their military is not a threat, their economic savvy is. Their currency could possibly become the world standard as the dollar collapses. Our land of opportunity could become their land of opportunity by default, pardon the expression.