posted on Nov, 16 2011 @ 08:07 AM
reply to post by TrueAmerican
I hate to say it but I am more concerned about the situation in that region now than I was months ago. Just my feeling and with no scientific
justification at all. I sincerely hope that they do not get a massive quake any time soon, because wintry conditions would make it far more difficult
for homeless survivors than in warmer weather.
In the past I did quite a bit of reading online about the 1923 quake, and while there is plenty of information about the main event itself and the
aftershocks, there seems to be very little about any foreshocks. In fact, I have not found any specific references to any, suggesting that if they
occurred they were either a fair way out to sea or not very powerful -- a somewhat different situation to the March 11 Japan quake, where (as you
know) there was a strong foreshock in the mag 7 range only 2 days prior to the mainshock.
From a scientific/historical standpoint, back in 1972 in an article in Tectonophysics
, Suyehiro and Sekiya stated:
Very large earthquakes can also take place without any immediate foreshocks. The great Kanto earthquake of 1923 was not preceded by any immediate
foreshocks. However, the seismic activity in the general region became abnormally high from one year prior to the earthquake.
Source: an abstract from Science Direct (dot) com
Unfortunately, due to the massive March 11 quake on a different but related subduction zone futher up Honshu's east coast and its own subsequent
aftershocks, I'd suppose it is hard to define if the quakes in the region under discussion can all be considered as aftershocks of that event, or if
they are possibly foreshocks of another megathrust quake. My own feeling is that while they could well be a mixture of both, the quakes on or near the
boundary you've indicated (and especially near the triple junction) might well indicate the latter.
It's pretty much a given in both the Japanese scientific community and among the general population that there will be another huge quake in that
region one day, but again, my hope is that it doesn't come in the colder months.
edit on 16/11/11 by JustMike because: a really stupid typo