The Final Warning to Tokyo

reply to post by ThousandIslandSunny

I am most definitely concerned about what is coming next. Tokyo is now lined up vertically AND horizontally to the activity, and it just can't be good, no matter how you slice it.

Why can't I be definitely concerned without getting accused of relishing the prospect? So now I can't post in my own thread and make observations of the activity because it offends you? You at the right site?

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
4.3 quake very close- I believe that one may be in Tokyo, or just north of it.

www.jma.go.jp...

Zorgon, I'd say the last thing they need is a repeat of 1923. But just look at that quake. Just look at it.

Japan must have a special breed of seismologist: they're all blind. :shk: I swear it's getting to the point that maybe I SHOULD go shouting this from the rooftops. The quakes are NOT stopping. There has clearly been a serious upset to the area. Any 3 year old could see this.

"Look Mommy, the quakes are getting very close to us now."

"I know sweetie, but our great scientists with masters degrees will make it stop. Right before they hit us."

"But Mommy, that's what you said two weeks ago, and they're still getting closer."

"I know sweetie, but we must trust in Science."

"But Mommy, those mean scientists and their mistakes with the bad nuclear stuff are going to kill us!"

"I know sweetie, but we will be safe. I won't let any of that stuff touch you."

"Oh ok, Mommy."

"Mommy, what is that...that....Mommy! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...................................................!"

True American, this is where you lost me, my dear. Thing is, there ARE real children here in Japan. Real scared children, with parents who know there are risks. Children who REALLY REALLY did say goodbye to their family when the big quake struck and cried REAL tears of fear for family members who took a while to get home. Real children, that have REAL mothers who really do love them very much indeed.

You are arrogant, making predictions, when noone knows. Saying `oh oh, wouldnt like to be them`, without thinking that real people are having to make risk assessments that might well mean the difference between life and death.

If you are in the prediction business, you may do well to remember that when those predictions do not come true, and if people listen to them and take them seriously, it may very well cause MORE upset to those childre, more suffering to those people, than staying calm and seeing what really is happening.

What you wrote, and what i quoted above is FOUL beyond decency. It is disgusting to me. Your arrogance is disgusting. This is not some game, this is people`s lives.

From what Ive seen, people on this site are bright and questioning and have humility. They are seem to be a caring bunch. Sure YOU are on the right site?

Dont. Just dont. Im not in the mood for silly little boys, believe me.

You know what you say to children who are scared? You know what you say and do even if you are terrified yourself? You tell them that everything is ok, that they will be safe, even if you do not know that, because at that point in time you have no choice.

I have NO choice. They have no choice.

So instead of screaming while your world slides and bucks around you, you smile and read them books under the table, hug them close and tell them not to be scared. I am not stupid. People here are generally not stupid, but we have jobs, and mortgages, and nowhere to go.

So cut the arrogance, and admit your predications were off to start with. Have a bit of humility from your position of safety, say that it is hard to say when this is giong to happen, or if these news quakes signify nothing, or if indeed Tokyo is imminently in for a big one. Or else show me your science.

Well,

..at 7:40p.m. yesterday on Tuesday we felt a 2 to 3 second quake which was a very rapid shudder. We know that when it is a shudder, the epicenter is very close and shallow. It was so fast though, most people didn't notice it. But everyone in my office at the time noticed. I was in Meguro, Tokyo.

..today at about the same time there was another quick shudder, about 1 second. This time I was in Western Japan near Saitama.

But so far most of the quakes are still centering in the Tohoku area.

I imagine that if Tokyo has any serious damage of any kind or Fuji shoots up ash, that this place will become a ghost town. That's provided we have this warning at all. Japan's economy will be devastated. It will be just like after the war.

Now I'll ask again. Do any of you think that the eruption in Iceland, the mega tornadoes in the U.S., the single rare tornado in Chiba, Japan and the rare tornado in New Zealand, the storm flooding everywhere -- all related?

Also, please read the story about how Fudai, Japan survived the flooding because one town mayor invested in a 50 foot flood gate wall. Everybody thought he was a fool, but he saved their lives on March 11th.

reply to post by ren1999


He did save lives because he remembered his history and knew there had been tsunami there before. I know all about him. There is a difference between putting up sea defences because a tsunami has happened before and making wild predictions about an event which will probably happen eventually, but noone knows exactly when it will happen.

There WILL be a big quake in Tokyo some day. That is all we can say. Like that mayor could say `there willbe a big tsunami some day`, he didnt try and predict exactly when.

Everyone knows Tokyo will probably get a big quake in the end, but mocking those of us still here, and running round like chicken little with no evidence that I can see is not helping anyone.

And Ill call bull# on the quakes yesterday, I did not feel a single one, and believe me Im nervy.

Originally posted by ren1999

Fuji is not going to shoot up ash any time soon. If you look at the volcano monitoring sites, Fuji is quiet. So that is not a worry for now. Look at it online on streaming cameras. It is silent as it ever is.

I

Originally posted by ThousandIslandSunny
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Earthquake prediction is barely a science, let alone an exact one. There is an 80 percent chance of a big one in Tokyo/Ibaraki happening over the next 30 years. The Tohoku-Kanto oki has set off aftershocks and probably put more stress on the kanto fragment, and the plates that pass through Tokyo.

Thing is noone can predict if these are foreshocks of something big, or aftershocks, or just ripples, let alone exactly when this event is going to happen. I am not stupid, I know there are risks, everybody here understands there are risks.

Try not to sounds as if you relish the prospect of the place where I and a lot of other people live, being reduced to rubble, eh.

So, if you say that EQ prediction is an unpredictable science how can you state that there is an 80% chance of a big one happening in the next 30 years??!!! It`s like the 80% chance of rain!!! How does it differ with the 70% chance of rain? It either rains or it doesn`t!!
I have been hearng about the possible and overdue Tokai EQ since I came to Japan, almost 20 yrs ago....

True American is not relishing any prospects you mention, nor is he hoping, Im sure , to see this country be reduced to rubble. He is just concerned and giving his view on the basis of the tremors and quakes that are happening along the plates.

His deductions are probably more concrete than those who give you the stats of 80% in 30 years....I can tell you that too!!

reply to post by ThousandIslandSunny


Not bull,
This one was on Tuesday, everyone in my office felt it. It was about 1 to 3 seconds long.
4.6M, depth: 35km 24/5/2011 19:18

This one was on Thursday.
4.8M, depth: 59km 26/5/2011 19:56

reply to post by ren1999


The 80 percent chance of a big Tokyo quake within 30 years prediction was made not by me, but by the Governmental Earthquake Research Institute. Here is a link to an article mentioning their report. If you read Japanese, let me know and Ill send you the Japanese link. www.bloomberg.com...

It was the data on which Kan based his decision to shut down the Hamaoka nuclear plant. Here is a link to that article. www3.nhk.or.jp...

This risk has been put between 80 and 87 percent, from the articles I have read, and if I have understood the report in Japanese fully.

Im not into math, but their math is there for people to check.

Also, the disgusting mimicing of a Tokyo mothers words to her children certainly seems like relishing the prospect of the quake to me.

You know when people predict the end of the world, it leads to others doing things in panic, that are not good for them, and not founded in reality. Predicting this, and being wrong, as this poster has been, and then predicting again, like it is a fun little game is fearmongering. Im all for being aware, but not for propagating fear.

Yes, there are lots of aftershocks, yes that quake was big. Can we pin point it to a date and time? Not as far as I know, and certainly not from anything I have seen here.

As for the 4.0 in Fukushima, I doubt you felt it all the way away in Meguro, and I certainly did not feel it in my bit of Tokyo, but if you say you did, fair enough. Thing is it was not a big window rattling everyone pay attention quake. It was an aftershock.

Sorry if this was posted already.

Japan's recent magnitude 9.0 earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami, relieved stress along part of the quake fault but also has contributed to the build up of stress in other areas, putting some of the country at risk for up to years of sizeable aftershocks and perhaps new main shocks, scientists say.

The magnitude 9 quake appears to have influenced large portions of Honshu Island, Toda said. At particular risk, he said, are the Tokyo area, Mount Fuji and central Honshu including Nagano.

physorg.com

This article seems to agree with your original thoughts of Japan TA.

reply to post by mugger


Thanks for that article. And from the same article:

"In addition to the megathrust surface to the north or south of the March 11 rupture, we calculate that several fault systems closer to Tokyo have been brought closer to failure, and some of these have lit up in small earthquakes since March 11. So, in our judgment, Central Japan, and Tokyo in particular, is headed for a long vigil that will not end anytime soon."

Perhaps one day it will set in to the citizens of Tokyo that they are sitting on a cluster of ticking time bombs that are starting to go off. It's just not a good place to be. There are safer places to live. When your life is endangered as such by your immediate environment, for those affected it MUST become a number one priority to exit the situation for more favorable ground. It's not about choice. It's about necessity. And those that do not heed the warnings risk severe injury or worse.

Even with that article, I remain surprised that no mention is made of the especially precarious situation in which Japan finds itself. It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or a seismologist for that matter, to figure out that living on top of the juncture of four tectonic plates is a particularly dangerous place to be to start with. But once they start acting up, AND deadly radiation is released? No brainer. Get out.

If you can't, you can't. Understandable. And for that I have no solution. Sorry. Real sorry. There is nothing I can do. I do not have any resources. I could give up my internet and send you 30 bucks a month. Not gonna happen. I used my time, my research and my money paying for that internet to advise you best I could. So when it happens, I can at least know that I tried. If that's not enough, then so be it. I will burn in Hell I guess.

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Japan has stood for a long time. There are temples here and castles which are 1200 years old. Tokyo got bombed to nothing in WW2, otherwise there would be older structures in Tokyo too. Japan is not continually shaken back to the stone age, if it were it would not be the advanced prosperous place it is. Quakes like the one in March are and remain very rare. That is a fact.

Everyone who lives here can feel that there are a lot of quakes after that huge quake. We know this. We know, we live with the fact and always have lived with the fact that Tokyo is over due a big quake. It is a fact of life. Japan builds for this, prepares for it as best we can.

The nuclear issue, the government should have emptied Fukushima right at the start. They didnt, and that is on their conscience. Tokyo however, is not `highly irradiated` at the moment. We are far enough away that whilst it is nerve wracking, this is not the `last chance` to get out, nor was it over a month ago when you predicted wrongly that Tokyo would be reduced to rubble.

I have not asked ANYONE to help me, apart from my family. I want nothing from anyone nor have I asked, and Im offended you made out like I did.

I have no problem with you saying `I think Tokyo is going to get shaken`, I do too, just I dont think I can say WHEN, I also think that my apartment is strong enough to withstand it, and I have a good evac plan and am well equipped. It is the WAY you said it. You do realise people have children, moving like that needs MONEY, a lot of it, when you have a family, and you need a job and somewhere to go to? The super rich who can go at a moments notice are gone, unless they have work commitments here.

Mimicking a TOkyo mother trying to comfort her child, and mocking that person and their situation will NOT win you any friends, and people here will nto listen to you after that. Try putting your ideas forward with no sensationalism, a bit of humility and a little bit of calm, then maybe you would not get people`s backs up against you.

You are not going to burn in hell for trying to help, but try to help if that is what you want to do, do not propagate fear in a sensationalist way. Have a bit of humility for mother nature. You dont know when the big one will be, noone does right now.

Thing is, if people are going to use their precious resources to run, titles like `last chance` are going to upset and panic people. Call the thread `Im concerned that Tokyo is going to get a big quake=

Try this - you can see how you would fare if there is a tsunami, and set the size.
I don`t know how reliable it is but according to this, where I live, would be flooded even with a 3 metre tsunami!

You can change the settings and test it on other parts of the world too....

flood.firetree.net...,140.2762&z=7&m=20

reply to post by Sarahko


Im in a slightly better situation than you, Sarah, going by that calculator.

Also be aware that that caluculator shows what would be under water if the water rose.

It is my understanding that Tokyo Bay actually protects from tsunami to a rather large extent.

It was hard to find a map labelled in English, sorry for the fact it is for sea world!



www.google.co.jp...://www.kamogawa-seaworld.jp/english/img/map_14.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.kamogaw a-seaworld.jp/english/index2.html&h=274&w=343&sz=49&tbnid=ZUu0W2u7-09A5M:&tbnh=96&tbnw=120&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMap%2Bof%2BTokyo%2Bbay%26tbm%3Disch%26tb o%3Du&zoom=1&q=Map+of+Tokyo+bay&usg=__aStjLlyBx8GR6wV4MlsiDfaS_qQ=&sa=X&ei=CpThTd_-OISivQP92oGFBw&ved=0CCQQ9QEwAQ&biw=1259&bih=534&tbm=isch&tbo=u&star t=0#tbnid=ZUu0W2u7-09A5M&start=3

The inlet to Tokyo Bay faces south west and that there is 90 degree
turn to the northwest, followed by another 90 degree turn to the northeast.
Tsunamis travel in roughly straight lines or hug coasts.Tsunami do not make turns or bounce off coastlines.

Tokyo itself is at the back of the Bay almost 70km from the mouth which
is quite narrow (

Millions of fish die near Philippine volcano. Is this a warning sign?

www.dailymail.co.uk...

There has been lots of very low vibrational shaking all day yesterday and part of today in Tokyo.

This rumbling and vibration could be coming from coal burning under the ground.

There is no doubt that volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and some very large tornadoes are all related.

I also suspect that fish and bird deaths are either related to a sudden change in temperature or the release of poisonous gases due to underground volcanic and earthquake activity.

It sickens me that some seismologists lack the energy or interest in studying any hypothesis that might make earthquake prediction easier.

If a large aftershock hit Christchurch 4 months later, will a large aftershock hit Japan next month?

reply to post by TrueAmerican
I have a question, I would like your opinion on ? When I saw on the news, two days ago, that ChristChurch New Zealand, was having quakes again, I thought " Holy Crap ". Japan's 9, and subsequent chain reaction, followed the last batch of quakes there. So my question to you is, could this a new re-triggering ?