All space weather personnel called in...

This is a rather scary article I found. I am not quite sure what the impact will be on earth and maybe one of our more astronomy minded members would have more detail as to what we can expect.

"Kp Index Goes Off The Chart__"literally"...07/27/04
by Mitch Battros (ECTV)

I just received a call from Bill Murtagh who is the top forecaster for
the Space Weather Center in Boulder, Colorado. He told me the Kp index has gone off the charts and all SWC personnel has been called in. There is a great concern of a second CME heading towards Earth. There is a real and present danger of power grids going down. I am also told Dr. Ernest Hildner, director of the SWC, is on his way to Washington DC at this very moment.
Bill Murtagh has informed me our interview scheduled for tonight may
have to be postponed due to urgent circumstances. As a result, I have Jim
Berkland
standing by for tonight's show. This will
work
out well as Berkland has hypothesized a connection between solar events
and earthquakes.

Kp Index Chart :
www.n3kl.org..."

www.sec.noaa.gov...

"AURORA ALERT: Sky watchers should remain alert for auroras because a geomagnetic storm is underway. It began around 2300 UT (4:00 p.m. PDT) on July 26th when a coronal mass ejection (CME, movie) hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact triggered intense geomagnetic activity, which was sustained through the night by a south-pointing interplanetary magnetic field."

www.spaceweather.com

[edit on 27-7-2004 by Mynaeris]

Mynaeris,

Pretty much what the article says.
Sometimes powergrids have problems, there could be some
power outages. Nowadays, with the amount of warning we get,
Most satellites can be put into a "safe" mode. Which minimizes the
chances of damage (not always though).

It's worse, when there is a one-two punch.
The Earths magnetic field doesn't get to recover, and more particles can make
it to the atmosphere. Thus the chances are greater for power outages etc..

If you've never seen the Aurora Borealis, this increases the chance.
I have some photos from last year, when we were pummeled one after another, by some pretty big CME's..Mayeb I'll post a good one later?

M-Class Solar Flare

Satellite communication problems possible, headache/bodyache to those who are sensitive to it. Auroras possible, Radio interuption possible,
Powergrid failure possible. alot of possibles, we will have to wait and see!

john



Stratospheric Warming Alert

ALERT: X-ray Flux exceeded M5

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100000pfu

muir.spasci.com...

www.sec.noaa.gov...

www.spaceweather.com...

www.sec.noaa.gov...

Can I ask you for a link for where you got this article?

Well, if you look at the Spaceweather site, you'll see that the storm is already fading. It doesn't look as though the KP index went totally off the charts, there.

It hasn't passed yet:

www.sel.noaa.gov...

Cheers

JS

Here's little about geomagnetic storms:
www.space.com...
To get an idea of the strength of the 1859 storm, you have to wade into nT's for a moment.

A space storm's impact is measured in nano-Teslas (nT), Brekke explained. The lower the figure, the more powerful the storm. A moderate storm can be around -100 nT; extreme and damaging storms have been logged at around -300 nT.

The 1989 coronal mass ejection that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada measured -589 nT, Brekke said. The 1859 perfect storm was estimated to have been -1,760 nT. Brekke used three exclamation points in his e-mail delivering that number.

www.viewzone.com...
www.geocities.com...
www.agu.org...

Going up and down...

sec.noaa.gov...

SEC has updated with this warning....what the heck does it mean?

July 27 2058 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected

I predict no major disasters within the next few days. Just relax, it's just a little storm. A hundred years ago no one would have even known if we were having a massive geomagnetic storm unless there were lights in the sky. Hmmm, lights in the sky, that might be something to watch for and get excited about. It would be nice if I could see that.

Originally posted by orionthehunter
I predict no major disasters within the next few days. Just relax, it's just a little storm. A hundred years ago no one would have even known if we were having a massive geomagnetic storm unless there were lights in the sky. Hmmm, lights in the sky, that might be something to watch for and get excited about. It would be nice if I could see that.

Our dependance on electonics is much greater now than it was 100 years ago

Anyone know what the readings were on that extremely strong storm that happened last november?

Originally posted by chrisnolefan
Anyone know what the readings were on that extremely strong storm that happened last november?

Well, there was one really massive X flare back then.

sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov...

We haven't come anywhere near that yet, but people are saying this is one of the longest of most intense CME events in recent history.

Right now, solar wind speed has reached 924.0 km/s and there's a new warning for a K index of 6.

That last november's CME was directed away from Earth.
If it had hit Earth... well, I think someones would have had to kiss goodbye for many satellites and power networks.



www.space.com...
he strongest flares on record, in 1989 and 2001, were rated at X20. This one is at least that powerful, scientists say. But because it saturated the X-ray detector aboard NOAA's GOES satellite that monitors the Sun, a full analysis has not been done.
The satellite was blinded for 11 minutes.
1989 CME knocked out Quebec's power network.
Last November's flare was X28 and scale isn't linear.

This might be most powerfull "observed":
www.space.com...

Solar Activity being related to earthquakes, I've never heard such a crazy idea in my life.

Originally posted by Rock Hunter
Solar Activity being related to earthquakes, I've never heard such a crazy idea in my life.

"After a solar storm strikes the Earth a geomagnetic storm erupts. The increased magnetic field strength of the magnetosphere pushes down on the ionosphere, which pushes against the oceans. It is due to the electromagnetic properties of sea water that the oceans become temporarily heavier. The extra heaviness of the sea water, coupled with the daily tidal forces of the Sun and Moon cause greater than normal forces to press against both the eastern and western boundaries of the Pacific Plate, but more so the western boundary in the South Pacific Islands region." - www.terracycles.com...

Originally posted by chrisnolefan
Anyone know what the readings were on that extremely strong storm that happened last november?

I think that one was off the charts of the instruments that were observing them from SOHO. It was like a class X25-30 i think?

Hmm. Learn something new around here every day, I do.

Solar flares tend to be subjects of extreme fear in many circles. I'd like to track this one (what its strength is and so forth) and perhaps get some good links explaining evertying... and let's document its effects.

And the next time someone shrieks "OMG!!! SOLAR FLARE WILL TURN EARTH TO TOAST!!!" we can point them to this thread and say, "have a look at the benchmarks, eh?"