Bizarre events are actually very probable

I decided to post this in the Gray Area as it is a personal theory and is applicable to all fields of study.

It's also rather short and sweet:

Consider the probability of a bird flying into the window nearest to you in the next 10 seconds. Very little, yes? How about the neighbour's dog starting to bark? More of a chance, but still an uncommon occurence. Now try to think of as many possible things you can imagine that could happen in the next minute... you could just keep thinking, right?

So, the probability of these occurrences to happen, per minute, is very very low, but that vast amount of possible things that could occur is ridiculously high, nay, infinite. Therefore, the chance that strange, bizarre, co-incidental things will occur in your life regularly is actually rather high, I believe.

Somewhat paradoxical, no? Discuss.

I don't see any paradox in what you said.

All you said was:
There are a earn infinite amount of things in the world that could happen at any one point in time, so the chance of something happening is always 100%, or 99.999% if you're going to be picky.
But individually the things still have a very low chance of them happening at any one point.

And all I really have to say to that is, so what? Where is the theory in that?

It is a paradox in that improbable events are improbable, but collectively, it is probable that an improbable event will occur. Do you see?

Im gving birth to the Multiverse in the early morning, Im walking through it on a single path per instant defining my own Universe in every single choice.

reply to post by RenegadeScholar


Are you saying that there are so many unlikely things that could happen in the next minute or so that at least one of them is bound to happen?

reply to post by FurthestStar


Yes, yes I am.

There is an old saying that a 1 in a million chance happens 10 times every day in New York City.

Originally posted by RenegadeScholar
It is a paradox in that improbable events are improbable, but collectively, it is probable that an improbable event will occur. Do you see?

It doesn't matter how many possible events there are, it doesn't increase the chances of those individually "improbable" events happening.

They will still be as improbable.

If I have one event that has 0.0001% chance of happening, and another unrelated event with the same 0.0001% chance of happening, you don't say there is a 0.0002% chance that one of them is going to happen, because the events are unrelated and have no effect of increasing each others probability.

They will always have a 0.0001% chance of individually happening no matter how many other improbable things you have that could happen.

Yes, but I'm not talking about the occurrences individually. I am saying that collectively the chance of something improbable happening is probably. You misunderstand me.

Hiya..
strange coincidence... i just started a thread on the proabability of coincidence that is releavant to this thread I think, here is the video I posted.

Originally posted by manmental

Hiya..
strange coincidence... i just started a thread on the proabability of coincidence that is releavant to this thread I think, here is the video I posted.

Haha yeah, I noticed I said a similar thing on your topic... coincidentally! haha

This is actually quite brilliant! It is also the basis of the Heart of Gold Infinite Improbability Drive:

Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy Wiki

Infinite Improbability Drive

The Infinite Improbability Drive is a faster-than-light drive. The most prominent usage of the drive is in the starship Heart of Gold. It is based on a particular perception of quantum theory: a subatomic particle is most likely to be in a particular place, such as near the nucleus of an atom, but there is also a small probability of it being found very far from its point of origin (for example close to a distant star). Thus, a body could travel from place to place without passing through the intervening space (or hyperspace, for that matter), if you had sufficient control of probability.[1] According to the Guide, in this way the drive "passes through every conceivable point in every conceivable universe almost simultaneously," meaning the traveler is "never sure where they'll end up or even what species they'll be when they get there," therefore it's important to dress accordingly.

reply to post by RenegadeScholar


I think you are right.

Lots of people = lots of chances that an odd coincidence will occur - and there are lots of people in this world.

law of truly large numbers (coincidence) "That a particular specified event or coincidence will occur is very unlikely. That some astonishing unspecified events will occur is certain. That is why remarkable coincidences are noted in hindsight, not predicted with foresight."--David G. Myers

The law of truly large numbers says that with a large enough sample many odd coincidences are likely to happen.

law of truly large numbers - coincidence

We also live long lives, which means the chances that in all that time something odd won't happen are quite low.

In the context of ATS, which is full of "odd" coincidences, and where people often like to say they are "joining the dots", there are so many dots that you can create any picture that you want.

Some more links on the subject:
Laws of Freak Chance
The Power of Coincidence Some Notes on Psychic Predictions
Top 15 Amazing Coincidences - The List Universe

i think Forrest Gump summed it up well: shiat happens.