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At MAX: JP Morgan will default on silver within two months LIVE UPDATES

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posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:38 PM
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Ok, so I've been doing a lot of "silver sleuthing" recent and put a number of things together with a startling result:

JP MORGAN WILL DEFAULT ON ITS SILVER CONTRACTS WITHIN TO MONTHS FROM NOW.

Here's the story:

Silver was $30 an ounce on about 2/12/11 and hit $40 today 4/8/11, and that growth was severly hampered by middle east unrest. GRAPH

Also, the zerohedge article states that JP Morgan has 30,844 troy ounces of silver left in it's vaults, eough for SIX CONTRACTS.

ZEROHEDGE

It took 8 weeks for silver to rise $10. The growth is exponential but even if you keep the growth rate flat, it will be $50 by June 3rd 2011. I'm sure the big CEOs have ways to weasel a month (but not more than two) of time before this who thing comes crashing down.

But here's the best part:

Once it goes over the all time high of 1980 ($49.45 I believe), there won't be anything stopping it as nobody has any Silver above that price to sell back into the market to cause pullbacks.



Most likely this massive short squeeze will be sooner than then, as this estimate is VERY conservative. (don't want to make a fool of myself like other people do on ATS.)

As I write this silver is $41.93. I has gone up almost 50 cents since I started working on this thread

Even if more world civil unrest slows the metals markets, by June 3rd JP Morgan will have defaulted on it's silver.

I look forward to your comments as you poke holes in my argument
(the best part!)

Added links will go here:
Silver's imminent exponential price cycle

edit on 8-4-2011 by Skerrako because: Link


Silver's imminent exponential price cycle
edit on 14-4-2011 by xpert11 because: mod edit at member request




posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:51 PM
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40.96 Now Baby. DOWN WITH JPM! Buy a silver eagle, save america!



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:51 PM
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reply to post by Skerrako
 



no hole poking from me.. i bought 1000 ounces back in the old days,, getting ready for Y2K.....

getting ready to sell....... i need the cash for "other"
" purchases



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:52 PM
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JPM does have the option to cash out on the options and not deliver the physical goods, granted at a 25% penalty, but very few individuals or institutions, except large consumers of commodities, take physical delivery of them at the end of the term. However, knowing JPM is up $hit creek, the investors could demand the physical asset and make out like bandits on the cash out.

Let this be a lesson to anyone who owns gold or silver: TAKE PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF IT. Don’t trust some worthless piece of paper telling you its safe in some vault in Switzerland or New York.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:57 PM
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I picked up my last piece back in December for $2 over spot. Im set for a while and glad I got my dad in on it too. He caught the bug back in 05 and has set aside a nice spot in his safe for his silver.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 03:57 PM
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reply to post by SirMike
 





Let this be a lesson to anyone who owns gold or silver: TAKE PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF IT. Don’t trust some worthless piece of paper telling you its safe in some vault in Switzerland or New York.


Yes, put it in storage at a local place! (With good security). There are some vaults in Canada that store your precious metals and certify the physical bars and bullion.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:04 PM
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Originally posted by Skerrako
reply to post by SirMike
 





Let this be a lesson to anyone who owns gold or silver: TAKE PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF IT. Don’t trust some worthless piece of paper telling you its safe in some vault in Switzerland or New York.


Yes, put it in storage at a local place! (With good security). There are some vaults in Canada that store your precious metals and certify the physical bars and bullion.


When the SHTF your not going to have time to run to O' Canada to get your coin. Keep that stuff locked up in your safe at home that is bolted down to the ground



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:06 PM
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reply to post by Skerrako
 


Even a safety deposit box would work.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:15 PM
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Originally posted by SirMike
reply to post by Skerrako
 


Even a safety deposit box would work.


I wouldn't trust a bank to hold your goods. All it takes is one "bank holiday" or a new confiscation scheme and you're SOL.

There's a lot to be said for a good ol' fashioned hole in the ground.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:20 PM
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Here in my area I get it at market spot. Got a few hundred ounces in mixed ingots and coins when it was $30. Didn't take a rocket scientist to see where it was going to go.

Dunno if this is on topic but why do these idiots keep doing this stuff to themselves? I gotta get better at picking what bubble they're going to inflate next. Hoping it's something like beer.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:49 PM
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When the SHTF your not going to have time to run to O' Canada to get your coin. Keep that stuff locked up in your safe at home that is bolted down to the ground
reply to post by camaro68ss
 


Speak for yourself......I live in Buffalo
. I literally can run to Canada if I need to.

Full disclosure though, I have all of my silver physically.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 04:53 PM
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Originally posted by billxam
Here in my area I get it at market spot. Got a few hundred ounces in mixed ingots and coins when it was $30. Didn't take a rocket scientist to see where it was going to go.

Dunno if this is on topic but why do these idiots keep doing this stuff to themselves? I gotta get better at picking what bubble they're going to inflate next. Hoping it's something like beer.


Im only 24 and just started looking into the FED and banking like 6 months ago. GOD i wish i looked into these stuff when i was yonger. No one was around to tell me. I would have bought up all the silver i could at $4 an ounce. I would be a rich man



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 05:31 PM
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Added link showing Silver's exponential price feedback loop

LINK



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 05:37 PM
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I only have three pounds or so stashed in silver coins of mixed ancestry....
The bulk are \us and Canadian.(a few chinese)
Im wondering how do you figure the worth of them actually.....
Ive been told US = 90% and Can = 80 % silver by wieght of the coins...
Can anyone confirm this?
The few siver ounces i have pure bars, how do yall think this is gonna spend>?
Carry a hacksaw around and chunk off pieces?
Theres not gonna be a whole lot of it around to use for trade, so there will have to be some way of standardising the exchange method.(Between silver and whatever...)
Say in grams?
That way a guy can take his time and chunk grams off at home to pack with him....save the sawdust too!
.



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 07:06 PM
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Originally posted by camaro68ss

Originally posted by Skerrako
reply to post by SirMike
 





Let this be a lesson to anyone who owns gold or silver: TAKE PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF IT. Don’t trust some worthless piece of paper telling you its safe in some vault in Switzerland or New York.


Yes, put it in storage at a local place! (With good security). There are some vaults in Canada that store your precious metals and certify the physical bars and bullion.





When the SHTF your not going to have time to run to O' Canada to get your coin. Keep that stuff locked up in your safe at home that is bolted down to the ground


Good idea!

Say, what is your address again?




posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 08:39 PM
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reply to post by stirling
 


www.coinflation.com

Nothing better than finding an old quarter when given change these days



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 09:09 PM
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The question is how much of their short position do they have left.....a few months ago I saw where they had covered half (in the $31 area as I recall) and that estimates were that at their rate of coverage per $1 rise in silver it would take them to $42 to get out....That # is probably higher now since it is going up faster....but probably no more than the old high in silver (unless they are covering at a lesser pace or selling more short into it to try to hold it down). I also understand that they spun off their commodity trading division into a hedge fund but it could default (a la Long Term Capital in the late 1990s - short bond futures and other financial deriatives). They could also opt for the 25% cash penalty currently being used at the exchange to settle in cash and not deliver the silver. They could also keep covering their shorts while partially hedging in options and other means. (I understand that they had made cash arrangements for silver directly from some silver mines.) Long term silver is going much higher but in the short run it depends on how far this short squeeze goes. If there is a default by the shorts then the Comex is supposed to make good on the contracts (as an exchange/clearinghouse they are a party to both the buyer and seller)...so if it comes down to JPM or its spin off defaulting which could put the exchange in jeopardy of defaulting then they (comex) could do what they did when the members where trapped short by the Hunt Bros in 1980....change the rules. In 1980 they made it liquidation only and raised the margins to over the full value of the contract....the market collapsed. In this case they would likely change the delivery to cash settlement (like for stock index futures) and thus allow JPM et al to settle in cash. The market would still go up long term but it could correct severly first once the shorts settled up.
edit on 8-4-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)
edit on 8-4-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 8 2011 @ 09:44 PM
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I read the zero hedge link (opening post) and the blogger suggested that the sellers of At The Money (ATM) Calls would have to hedge in the physical market but that would not be a liquid hedge (premiums, storage, etc) so since an at the money call short is a synthetic futures contract they should buy futures to hedge (and likely did today judging by the market action). Markets often accelerate going into the weekend (up or down depending on the recent trend as losers are forced out). So the question as to the current action is....is this a shot term blow off or the start of a hyperparabolic move a la 1980? We have blown thru fibonacci #s. etc on this rally as if they didnt matter but for the record 42 is 2 x fibonacci 21 which is defacto 21 from the 2008 high area and approx fibonacci 34 + the late 2008 low (in the fibonacci 8+ area).



posted on Apr, 9 2011 @ 03:42 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


Yep I read that the same was happening at the end of March, banks were paying up to $50 and ounce because of the intense backwardation. The general consumer will see that price soon, most likely within a month, but definitely before June 3rd. Check this out:




For 2011, the Survey calculated that implied investment demand rose from 120.7 million ounces in 2009 to 178 million ounces in 2010, a 47.5% jump! But these are acknowledged fudge factors. I have seen other estimates of 2011 investment demand as high as 240 million ounces.


This link is a good read:

Silver Demand



posted on Apr, 13 2011 @ 09:18 AM
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JPM reported better than expected earnings this morning,,,making $25.8 Billion for the 1st Quarter. Maybe a) they are not as short anymore as traders assumed or b) they have hedged those futures shorts via forward cash contracts and other derivatives (ie exchange traded options). Either way they dont appear to be going broke.....






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