What the hell is the sun doing!?

Sorry about the title...needs to fit in and be seen!

After about a year or so of false starts, the sun seems to be finally waking up and becoming quite active again and I think we're in for a bumpy ride...not from the sun but from ATS!

Last solar maximum, ATS was in it's infancy so the sun never got much attention, fast forward to today and we'll get 2-3 threads posted up whenever a tiny little flare pops up.

People better get used to seeing geomagnetic storms heading our way because the next few years it's going to be a constant thing and frankly we don't need thousands of threads reporting on B and C class solar flares.

So, the purpose of this thread is to share proper information so that everyone hopefully understands what the sun is up to, so we don't get threads like Breaking News the Sun expelled a Monster Fireball 400 times bigger than Jupiter.

Coz in all reality the 'monster fireball' was barely a C class flare.

C class flares are rated very low and pose no threat to earth.

M and X class flares are where things get more interesting, we've had two X class flares so far this year and expect a few more in the coming months/years.

These two classes are the ones worth keeping an eye on to see what happens.

To illustrate I'll post up two graphs from the GOES X-ray satellite, this measures the X ray flux output from the sun.

It's very easy to understand and is a very good source of up to date information.

Here is the first graph, showing real time information from the satellite, it updates every 5 minutes.



Date and time is across the bottom (UTC) and the flare rating is on the right hand side (A B C M X).

The line to look at is the red line and as you can see, there have been four C class flares over the last few days.

You will also notice that there has also been a constant stream of solar wind in the B class range too.

This is all pretty normal, in fact it's reasonably quiet, which brings me to the second graph, to illustrate what things will look like when the sun really wakes up:

This is from July 2000:



The first thing you'll notice is the two X class flares and M class flares. The X6 flare triggered geomagnetic storms called the Bastille Day Event.

The next thing to notice is the stream of solar wind between the flares, it's bobbing in and around the C and M class categories.

Quite a significant difference to what we're seeing right now, but remember, it will be like this soon, so there's no need for the chicken little threads, because we've been through it all before.

I've sourced these graphs through Spaceweather.com, which is a good source of information, although a bit slow to report on significant solar activity, they still link to real time data, which can be found down the left hand side, the above graphs are found directly above the daily sun image, and looks typically like this:

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 1057 UT Apr08
24-hr: B4 0237 UT Apr08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UT

Click on more data to bring up the graphs.

Thank you!
That was very interesting!

Thanks for the informative post. The chart is pretty straightforward so it's easy even for a layman to read. That way no one can claim ignorance.

My question is, and hopefully I did not pass by it in reading, are these pointed at Earth? Or is it data from flares on all sides of the Sun?

Thanks

~Quest

This goes some way in explaining the various posts on ATS regarding weird weather patterns !
Today in britain its been predicted that temperatures over this weekend and next week coul be upto 70 degrees as opposed to the normal average temp for this time of year of around 56 degrees ?

Thanks for the refresher.

Now I can't get this song out of my head. (Thanks for putting it there Chad)

"If Chicken Little told you that the sky was falling, even if she didn't would you still come crawling back again. I bet you would my friend...again and again and again and again" -Aerosmith

Here at ATS, I would say the sky has "officially" fallen thousands of times.

reply to post by AMANNAMEDQUEST


Good question, the satellite picks up all activity, earth directed or not.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by AMANNAMEDQUEST

 

Good question, the satellite picks up all activity, earth directed or not.

I use an app called Solaris on my Droid Phone. It shows you current CME's and reference to which side is earth facing. Combined with the GOES data it's a pretty quick and accurate way to know if the S's about the Hit The Fan.

Thank you, Chadwickus- many of us have been watching these graphs and looking at info for many years, and frankly, a little tired of the "Sky Is Falling In" folks who just happened to look at something they don't really understand one day. You did a great job of explaining. Perhaps, this will quell a few of the DOOMSDAY SUN threads!

Originally posted by ProRipp
This goes some way in explaining the various posts on ATS regarding weird weather patterns !
Today in britain its been predicted that temperatures over this weekend and next week coul be upto 70 degrees as opposed to the normal average temp for this time of year of around 56 degrees ?

I am finding this uk weather wierd also. I dont ever remember it being this hot at the beginning of April!
Not complaining though! But it does make me wonder.....

reply to post by Chadwickus


Good info and wrist slap.

...The high frequencies that accompany solar flares can potentially impact/interrupt new technologies.

BUT.

The low frequencies that occur pre- and post flare are the ones that impact health and also, are related to earthquakes.

Do you know if the low frequencies are more common/significant with low-class flares? The same as with major flares?

reply to post by CastleMadeOfSand


Cool, didn't know about the AP.

There is also this site which has a load of information and links to relevant data, such as CME Arrival time prediction.

iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080...

Originally posted by ProRipp
This goes some way in explaining the various posts on ATS regarding weird weather patterns !
Today in britain its been predicted that temperatures over this weekend and next week coul be upto 70 degrees as opposed to the normal average temp for this time of year of around 56 degrees ?

Yeah where i'm at our average temperature is mid 50-s. Its supposed to be 73 degrees on saturday.

Yes sir,

Plenty of times, weekly, I see the threads pop up.

This, from the main screen of SOHO, says it all.

When the green graph is red and yellow, or the dial graph is pegged to the right, then worry.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/17a29451a726.jpeg[/atsimg]

SOHO

I forgot to say, usually when I see one of these "what the hell" threads I check SOHO ans Spaceweather before even reading the thread, but since I saw your name, I was concerned and checked the thread first.

Whew....you spooked me.

I would suggest a sticky for this thread, but the sun threads seem to pop up in just about every forum...So which one to put it in?

dis info at it's best!!! you know what is coming in 2012 and i guess you do not want people to start asking questions to soon huh?

wow TPTB are being very bold telling you not to look up everything is normal.........................

Thank you Chad. The minute I saw the title of this thread I rolled my eyes and thought, "Not Again! ", because I was just on Spaceweather and saw nothing out of the ordinary happening.

All I've got to say is "Bout time!

Wow thanks for that information very useful (PS this is from one of the doomsayers when looking at the info on SOHO :lol

Originally posted by vonhelton
dis info at it's best!!! you know what is coming in 2012 and i guess you do not want people to start asking questions to soon huh?

wow TPTB are being very bold telling you not to look up everything is normal.........................

I hope this is sarcasm.

For anyone that reads it as the opposite: Chad explained when we should be alarmed (or at least alert) to a specific sized flare.

Nope, no disinfo here. An informative post that lets anyone keep an eye out for something that could possibly disrupt communications and/or cause other effects.

Good look'in out Chad. Lots of dependable 411.

Never fear ! Magnetosphere !