Frankly no one knows how to end situation…
Beyond ability of Japanese authorities to contain…
Best guess on how this ends?…
There is going to be a bigger breach than we have already seen in 2 and 3…
Workers will be evacuated…
We will see at least two core meltdowns and two spent fuel pool fires…
It will end very, very badly, that is what I actually think is going to happen…
This will take weeks, months to contain it in best case…
Originally posted by thegoods724
us is safe thats good
Originally posted by TheRedneck
reply to post by Silverlok
Ummm, that's a good point.
I think I was the first one in this thread to use the term 'partial meltdown', in an attempt to clarify the stage between intact rods and corium... but in reality, it is not a technical term; I made it up on the spot. Now TEPCO is using it?
Are they reading this thread to find out what to do next?
On the outside chance they are...
Originally posted by randomname
this fearmongering is why people end up dying.
"These things play out over a long period of time, longer than people would think," Allen said. "You have an earthquake that lasts maybe a minute, a tsunami that lasts maybe 15 minutes. But these things could go on for months. You could lose all six of the reactors."
If workers are unable to get additional cooling water into the reactor vessel, the molten fuel core will collapse into the water in the bottom of the vessel. Eventually the heat from the decaying fuel would boil away the water that's left, leaving the core sitting on the vessel's lower head made of steel.
Should that happen, "It'll melt through it like butter," Allen said.www.knoxnews.com...
I never heard that. I heard it would reach the US but the levels would be too low to worry about.
Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are
Of course they can't contain it. They can't even contain the fact anymore that they can't contain it. Remember when they said there wasn't a chance that the radioactivity would reach the U.S?
That applies to people outside of Japan, yes. but not inside Japan.
And when they said everyone was too worried?
Maybe they said that, but I missed it, I heard them recommend evacuations.
And when they said evacuations weren't necessary?
Originally posted by -W1LL
reply to post by amongus
its to HOT near the sites to start any kind of work.
radioactive = HOT
and temps that high will not let concrete cure correctly first thing that needs to happen is cooling and then containment.
concrete takes time aswell you must do it right. theres so much prep that goes into it re-bar forms. and who knows if there a working concrete plant in japan after the damage?
A while back I mentioned that the black smoke that was rising from one of the buildings (#3 I think) could be decomposing graphite. At the time, it was believed that there was no graphite in this design; now this seems to indicate there was. It sounds believable to me because graphite is rugged, tolerates extreme heat, and has a low coefficient of friction (it's slick), making it an excellent seal material for most conditions. Under intense neutron bombardment, however, carbon can become carbon 14 through neutron absorption, which then decays by beta radiation to nitrogen... a gas. Graphite can also burn, and that combination could lead to carbon in the smoke... black smoke. That black smoke could have been graphite after all. Now, if that is true, that would mean the corium was able to drip out of the seal holes where the graphite once was, and the smoke marked the exit of corium from the reactor vessel. TheRedneck
Originally posted by TheRedneck
reply to post by DancedWithWolves
They are refusing independent testing as well. At what point is a company not allowed to refuse?
Apparently when independent testing shows apathetic, genocidal agendas.
Here's what seems to be happening as we type: Reactors #2 and #3 are in full meltdown. Reactor #1 is probably in partial meltdown. The radiation levels inside the cores is likely in the hundreds of Sv/h. In the units where there are leaks in the condensers (#2 and #3), the water in the single cooling loop is being pumped in and out by tidal forces, sloshing back and forth between the turbine room and the condenser, each located on a different side of the reactor. The leaks are probably due to extreme pressures and temperatures that occurred earlier in the system due to the meltdown. The pump is acting as a stopper of sorts while it is shut down, restricting flow through it. The leaks in the turbine rooms are causing high tide to pump radioactive water into them, while low tide draws that same radioactive water back into the ocean. Any cooling from this effect is minimal, since the reactors themselves are breached and cannot contain pressure.
The reactors are not venting amounts of steam that would be expected from this operation; therefore the reactor vessels themselves are not the main source of potential radiation. The melted cores (corium) are probably sitting on the floor of the containment areas, happily melting their way through the concrete. The heat being produced from this is superheating the air, carrying radioactive particles up through the damaged vessel (creating the radioactivity in the water) and out the damaged roofs into the air. There it combines with radiation being given off the spent fuel pools, and that cloud of invisible radiation I mentioned earlier is thus still growing and shifting with wind patterns.
Tokyo is going to be inundated with radiation as soon as the air currents decide to move that direction. Any rainfall during such an event will be highly radioactive. I predict we will soon see mass panic.
The ocean is being contaminated with probably more radiation that the turbine buildings, due to the lower elevation. Ocean currents will be carrying this radiation out to sea, where it will begin to dissipate. Some amounts may reach other shores, however, and I believe this is the reason why the reports of disaster training were earlier mentioned. There may soon be something deadlier than sharks in the waters.
Worse, if the corium is melting its way through the floor of the containment, that containment is only slowing down the problem. I believe once the corium hits the water table underneath the concrete, there will be a steam explosion. The size and direction of this explosion will determine just how widespread the resulting radiation will be. I suspect Unit #2 will be worse than #3 in this respect, as the building is more intact and better able to hold some of the initial pressure.
I now also believe the 'neutron beams' earlier mentioned outside of Reactor #3 were coming from the turbine building. There are obviously leaks form the main lines, and these leaks are allowing neutron release from the tritium and deuterium contained in the water. Somehow this is being focused, but at this time I am unaware of the exact mechanism. I suspect it has to do with the pressures and geometries involved around the leak(s).
Watch for intermittent reports of more steam, occasionally prolific amounts, as the corium begins encountering soil. Also expect the radiation levels in the turbine rooms to continue to grow, as well as the reports of seawater contamination. There may be lulls in the readings as the corium cycles from cooling to heating and back, but these should be temporary before a new and unprecedented spike in intensity.
TEPCO knows all this already. They are trying to escape liability by convincing people that the levels are safe as long as possible. As I see it, their only hope at this point is the destruction of Japan. Otherwise they will be held responsible for a disaster that would bankrupt the largest governments on the planet. That has already been made clear to them. Their modus operandi to this point has been to withhold as much data as they can, and to attempt to use the cyclical nature of their readings to minimize the amount that they must release. Their readings will continue to be skewed in this manner. Only when people begin dying will the true scope of this disaster become known.
Again, Tokyo should be evacuated, immediately. Do not remain in Tokyo. Things can change with the change of the winds, and it will not get better for a long long time.