Renowned economist's outlook darkens on global food prospects

Renowned economist's outlook darkens on global food prospects

www.theglobeandmail.com

“We’re hitting boundaries that are very important to understand and very important to counteract.”

Chief among those is the fact that global demand for food – and the agricultural commodities used to produce it – is outpacing the growth of supplies. The onset of climate change, which affects everything from the water supply to crop yields, is a ballooning wedge that will continue to force those trend lines in opposite directions, Dr. Sachs said.

(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
www.financialpost.com
ngm.nationalgeographic.com
www.moneyville.ca

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
North Korea's food stocks running dry, UN warns

Confused as to what may be driving the revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East? Yeah, me too. It's as if no-one completely understands, but there is an undercurrent that may be the true cause... food prices.

People HAVE to eat or they die. Place high prices on food in countries where the average income per day wouldn't buy you a cheeseburger or a plate of fries and you may understand why they're upset.

A 10% jump in groceries in the western countries is an irritant to the wealthy and middle class, but it has the majority of us clipping coupons and cutting back on the niceties.

Add to the mix speculators who use the markets as a means for taking profits and you have the formula for manipulation. Remember what they did to gas prices in the recent past.

Not even going to get into Montsanto, though. I'll leave that for the discussion.

Now, back to Libya. What is causing the intensity of that conflict? Is it the oil that it has? Going from memory, about 8% of world production comes from that country and it provides Europe. But why is America so intent on deposing the dictator and what is making the rebels in the east so dreadfully determined?

It can't be that they're finally sick of Khadafi's rule... not after 40 years of it. No, there's something much bigger afoot.

Food production. What would be the impact of unlimited fresh water supplies for North Africa and the Middle East for the production of FOOD?

In 1953, the search for new oilfields in the deserts of southern Libya led to the discovery not only of the significant oil reserves, but also vast quantities of fresh water trapped in the underlying strata. The majority of this water was collected between 38,000 and 14,000 years ago, though some pockets are only 7,000 years old.

There are four major underground basins. The Kufra basin, lying in the south east, near the Egyptian border, covers an area of 350,000km², forming an aquifer layer over 2,000m deep, with an estimated capacity of 20,000km³ in the Libyan sector. The 600m-deep aquifer in the Sirt basin is estimated to hold over 10,000km³ of water, while the 450,000km² Murzuk basin, south of Jabal Fezzan, is estimated to hold 4,800km³. Further water lies in the Hamadah and Jufrah basins, which extend from the Qargaf Arch and Jabal Sawda to the coast.


The Great Man-made River Project

On a side note and from the link in the OP:

Although Canada is a small country. Dr. Sachs said Canada bears a share of the responsibility for the fact that wars are getting more investment than agriculture, the boosting of which is a well-known ground stone of development. The jobs and education that come with development are what lead to political security.

Ah... politics. Love 'em, don't you? Always ready to jump into a crisis and get up on that soapbox with their notes in hand and, with a strident voice, postulating their ideological quick fixes.

More about Jeffrey Sachs and his connection to George Soros:

• Economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of The Earth Institute and longtime recipient of Soros charity cash. Sachs received $50 million from Soros for the U.N. Millennium Project, which he also directs. Sachs is world-renown for his liberal economics. In 2009, for example, he complained about low U.S. taxes, saying the “U.S. will have to raise taxes in order to pay for new spending initiatives, especially in the areas of sustainable energy, climate change, education, and relief for the poor
www.foxnews.com...

Dig in, ATS'ers. The groaning table is set for you.

www.theglobeandmail.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by masqua


My opinion on this can pretty much be summed up within 5 words .

"... Bang . . . Nail on The Head"

Nice post S & F

Peace

In the local supermarket alot of the food is imported
we don't see much local produce here
in Ontario Canada Im buying NEW ZEALAND LAMB!!!??

really where the rubber meets the road
The old folks always said
its free and a lot closer than the store...
learn to harvest locally and keep a good water filter handy

the local indians were bark eaters...
pine is very good and nutritious too,
easy to catch
makes its own bole


PS
I would say this is a deliberatly created problem reaction solution scenerio
as Kissinger said "oil controls countries and food controls people"

the pension funds
where are they invested
porn weapons food speculation, monsanto gmo pig pharma
the rich get a little richer the poor STARVE
wait till the poor are some of the ones now speculating

As to Libya:
z10.invisionfree.com...

The usuall suspects are cornering the water resources world wide
which like fuel, also figures into food production
Libya has the mothe rof all water projects going.

that water will even more precious then oil soon.

Good thread M
I truly believe this is at the heart of the matter after natural ( and man assisted) disasters
SANDF

Now, back to Libya. What is causing the intensity of that conflict? Is it the oil that it has? Going from memory, about 8% of world production comes from that country and it provides Europe. But why is America so intent on deposing the dictator and what is making the rebels in the east so dreadfully determined?

I've been flying on this topic using a new method (for me) of not over thinking anything. Just observe and let the threads lead me to the conclusions.

The crux of the matter as far as I can tell lies in two areas.

First, the use of the United Nations to begin the operation. I believe that this is a use of the charter in order to open a door to something else. It's just a feeling I have after reading the parts of the charter that give the authority. Article 43 for some reason sticks out.

Second revolves around a trip in 2004 by three individuals to Libya. I haven't been able to source the information as yet other than one source so I'm not going to provide a link to anything. A Google search should turn up some results. Look for monies involved and follow it.

All of this - the food, the uprisings, the rising costs (oddly, grain futures have been falling fast lately) seem to point to some type of social engineering. Maybe I'm over thinking this point but it's eluding me so far. This many events all happening at the same time point to a common crux.

More about Jeffrey Sachs and his connection to George Soros:

• Economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of The Earth Institute and longtime recipient of Soros charity cash. Sachs received $50 million from Soros for the U.N. Millennium Project, which he also directs. Sachs is world-renown for his liberal economics. In 2009, for example, he complained about low U.S. taxes, saying the “U.S. will have to raise taxes in order to pay for new spending initiatives, especially in the areas of sustainable energy, climate change, education, and relief for the poor
www.foxnews.com...

I just heard that there are major law suits against most major initiatives opposing the status quo, like wind farms and solar panel sites...
thats where the money will go...like the way the money went from tobacco suits...
That and bail outs...
while again the poor starve...
I hope this doesn't lead to a wiemer republic situation

Originally posted by masqua

People HAVE to eat or they die.

Well...maybe not. People could try becoming mystics, could try reaching their psychic potential, could try evolving, and developing siddhis. One siddhi is anūrmi-mattvam: Being undisturbed by hunger, thirst, and other bodily disturbances. The mystic with that siddhi lives off of the power of the universe itself, not food.

Masqua

Interesting information and just goes to show that the Western world has become too used to having everythin they want without understanding the true value and efforts to get it too them.....

The good days of excess in the West are over and this will be a real reality check to alot of the empty heads who exsist in our societies....

I believe that we should be more self suffieicnet and non reliant on New Zealand lamb in the shops in Canada or fresh beans in the UK picked from Zambia ??

We need to learn to be able to exsist by our own endeavours....
Cheers

PDUK

Here is what i dont understand... Backyard gardening in America has gone up substantially. People are growing more of their own fruits and vegetables than ever.. Where the heck is all this food in short supply going to...that we hear isnt being bought???

The population increase must be to the extent that even with less food being taken away from the market here in the states... still ends up less for the worldwide market. Or the government is buying up massive ammounts for preservation and long term storage. I know this much... when we go to the store... the price of average stuff we buy has easily gone up a dollar or more... so we buy less... That should be the same story throughout america... with people struggling to pay their bills and put food on the table.. Does anyone know the population increase per year?
articles.cnn.com...:TECH

reply to post by billxam


somehow, I have the same gut feeling as you, especially the part concerning the UN, it's like we are watching something unfold that has been planned, concidering the atrocites in the ivory coast are much worse than in libyia and have been for a while, why didnt obama go there first? if in fact he really is all about protecting people from their own government dictators.NOT

The plan to downsize the world's population is by famine and war no doubt about it and I have taken steps to lock in lower prices for my familiy's future food supply. www.myfreefood.us... I had to go with a supplier that locked in future contracts for food at lower prices. Do you realize that the real inflation figure is approx. 20% instead of the rediculous 2% that the government is telling us. Go fill your gas tank up and go to the grocery store this will tell you the real story when it comes to skyrocketing prices and inflation. ^Y^

reply to post by masqua


The economist has actually also recently done a series of articles on this.

www.economist.com...

www.economist.com...

We need to get a handle on corporations, speculation in the markets, and population growth.

That is the simple truth. Its also the simple truth that we will not be proactive about any of those things. Human beings are just incredibly bad at seeing consequences in the future, and if they can see the consequences, acting in ways that benefit them in the long run over the short run.

As corporations continue to grow in size and political power, expect no mercy in the grocery store, and dont complain when there are no social programs to fund bread lines.

Edit to add;

Jon Stewart interviewed some prince that discussed how food prices are being used to hammer at cracks in social structure to manufacture dissent and topple governments.

www.thedailyshow.com...

reply to post by masqua


The food prices are tearing my families income up. We have had to change many factors in our lives. We are starting to learn better gardening, I know how to garden but there is more to it if we use it as a main staple, we are plantign fruit trees. We are going to start raising our own chickens, I thank god we have a well which is located atop usa`s largest aquifier. Im out near the middle of no-where with very few neighbors. I thank god I am not a city dweller. City people are going to be in trouble when all life falls apart...S&F great thread...peace

reply to post by gloomyblue707

Yesterday I went to the local supermarket, and as I was returning to my car with 3 gals. water, 3 lbs coffee, 1.5 lbs raisins, a giant can of oatmeal, and dog food (yep, that's all - cost: $35) there was a delivery truck driver loading a skid full of wildly-popular non-nutritious breakfasty "treats" (shaped like an o and glazed with sugary syrup) INTO the truck. The driver asked me if I would like some of them.

"Are you giving them away?"
"Yes, that or they get thrown away. They're a day old, and the company says pick 'em up and throw them away."

Now, I am not a sweets eater, and have purchased these items for my own consumption perhaps 3 times, when my kids were very, very small (now grown). They regularly appear near corporate water coolers in break rooms and are considered to be the best sort of treat the management can provide for the drones. !!!

But I accepted two dozen of them - because the driver was literally desperately pushing them into my arms.

"Can't you take them to a food bank or soup kitchen?" I asked the driver.
The driver's head shook with genuine sadness. "No, they make us bring them back and then toss them in a dumper."
I said, "And I suppose it has a locked fence surrounding it."
"Yes," was the reply. "People sometimes are caught trying to dig them out, and get run off."

"That's crazy," I said.
"I know," said this befuddled, frustrated, disillusioned driver with a shrug that said 'gotta do what I'm told, ya know? Gotta feed my own family'.

Dearest driver, yes, I know.
How are people starving all over - not just in MENA, but in our own cities and towns - and our corporate goodies-manufacturers are THROWING AWAY AND LOCKING UP items that, while not healthy, would still prevent a child going to bed hungry?? That would provide life-sustaining calories to the homeless?

It sickens me.
It truly sickens me.

And the plight of those of us who are forced to behave in a way we find unethical because some rich bast....bastion says so? I walked away from my last job as a low-level supervisor in a major Chicago-based, world-wide corporation because management was expecting me to behave unethically, and shut up about it. I refused to do it, and was taken behind closed doors and told:

"You don't have to agree with managements' orders, you just have to follow them, and appear supportive to management."

I said, "Well, no, I don't. I don't know how you sleep at night, but if this staffer suffers a health disaster because of your stupid policies and a 10th of a percent on your stupid 'budget' report, it's on YOU. I refuse to do it."

Now, I had never been written up, ever, and had glowing reviews until that day. Next thing I knew I was given a write-up saying I was expected to support management in every way. Later I found a folder carelessly left on my boss's desk that was stuffed with "documentation" that would later be used to "justify" getting rid of me, the only supervisor on staff who stood up for the front-liners. I quit the next day.

sigh.
Just my story, and I'm sticking to it.
This is a very screwed-up world.

Aquaponics will feed people with little land required and almost no waste.

Of course that is bad for business from a multi-national corporate perspective.

Take the power back.

I think its time for people to reorganize their spaces, and also order heritage organic seeds like I did, online. Get alot of beans and proteins as well. Potatoes contain both vit C and protein and can be grown in nice little new potato nuggests inside, and form eyes for multiplying. Can grow them in tires or buckets. Indoor and outdoor gardens, and even sprouted foods.

They're orchestrating and managing world disasters in ways that crash the food chains. Their GMO is monsterous. Their biochemicals, chemtrails and bees. BP! Japan. Not only is Japan situated under the Jet Stream strategically, but did you know the Pacific Gulf stream is right there as well, and Alaska is on the loop, and that provides most of US seafood!

Some of this can be done even in small spaces, but trout farms too would be a great idea.

here

reply to post by Danbones

the rich get a little richer the poor STARVE
wait till the poor are some of the ones now speculating

Prophetic. So far, the 'poor' are mainly corraled in 2nd and 3rd world countries with no recourse but to rail against the petty dictators who have been installed in their palaces by globalist-minded corporations. This will not remain this way. 1st world countries are now also growing a chasm between the wealthy and impoverished. The middle classes are disappearing, good paying jobs are scarce and the fastest growing sector is the Service Industry. The time will come when those requiring service will be insufficient to keep the industry going. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm finding pizza joints, KFC, Mickey D's and the Wally Worlds a bit too pricey to go to.

Libya has the mother of all water projects going.

that water will even more precious then oil soon.

Put a glass of oil and a glass of water in front of me and guess what I'm going to drink if I'm thirsty.



The world's fresh water supply is dwindling. pollution, climate change, irrigation are just a few of the negative impacts.

reply to post by billxam

All of this - the food, the uprisings, the rising costs (oddly, grain futures have been falling fast lately) seem to point to some type of social engineering. Maybe I'm over thinking this point but it's eluding me so far. This many events all happening at the same time point to a common crux.

This is what I think also. There's no doubt a 'Grand Scheme' is in the works. The U.N. scares me and, as you say, Article 43 in your link is the means to put force behind the changes they want. The Bilderbergs are frightening enough, but at least they just invest their money, not weapons of massive destruction.

Second revolves around a trip in 2004 by three individuals to Libya.

Interesting. Hope you can find details.

Originally posted by Student X

People could try becoming mystics, could try reaching their psychic potential, could try evolving, and developing siddhis. One siddhi is anūrmi-mattvam: Being undisturbed by hunger, thirst, and other bodily disturbances. The mystic with that siddhi lives off of the power of the universe itself, not food.

Somehow, I doubt that is going to work with the majority. For one thing, the various established religious structures of the world will strenuously resist allowing their congragations to switch to such Eastern mysticism. Secondly, a father watching his wife and children starve is not going to be calmly sitting under a tree (like Buddha) and promoting inner tranquility. IMHO, of course.

Originally posted by PurpleDog UK

We need to learn to be able to exsist by our own endeavours....

Yes, we do... but as a community, not individually. Cities need to be surrounded by their own food source much like the notion of a 100 mile diet. Imports from distant countries, while loading the grocery stores of the west, are diverted away from those 2nd and 3rd world countries which can't afford the shipping costs. This goes on at our ultimate peril for obvious reasons.

Originally posted by amari

I had to go with a supplier that locked in future contracts for food at lower prices. Do you realize that the real inflation figure is approx. 20% instead of the rediculous 2% that the government is telling us.

Let's hope your supplier is able to honor their contract with you. It wouldn't be the first time such a contract got broken. As to the inflation figure you mention... I'm not surprised by this. I also would not be shocked at a doubling or tripling of food costs if the trends we're seeing keep going. Climate change has ruined much of last year's crops and this coming year, if it's just as disappointing, we may see that steep increase.

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
We need to get a handle on corporations, speculation in the markets, and population growth.

No kidding.

But how do we do that without involving those same corporations and speculators? The U.N. is deep into their pockets as are most, if not all, governments.

It's going to take individual acts, but working towards community. Food should be available within easy reach and not involve infrastructures that can fail... be it via gas shortages or a downed electricity grid.

Originally posted by wlmgsmn
City people are going to be in trouble when all life falls apart

Exactly. But as long as the Burger King is open and the paycheck keeps rolling in, city folk will ignore the looming crisis.



Funny how your replies make me feel encouraged on one hand, because it's obvious you are aware of this growing dilemna and yet saddened because it all seems so hopeless.

The nice fix is almost impossible to get in place in time while the ugly fix seems to already be working like a charm. The Military Industrial Complex must be rubbing their hands in glee.

Its a very concerted effort designed to squeeze tighter around the necks of beleagured folks who are not prepared to fight back efficiently. It seems that they are trying to provoke the most base reaction, which would be revolution, or chaos.

The order cannot start until after the chaos ensues, which will breed more chaos...

We take our agricultural staples and attempt to turn it into fuel. If oil controls countries, and food and water control people, why not turn the food and water into fuel which will break the people down even more efficiently?

If Libya truly sits on enough water to turn the Sahara into a veritable oasis, somehow there will be found a way to exploit that resource and thwart what ever usefulness could be mustered from trillions of gallons of fresh, unpoisoned water, that could dynamically revitalize what's essentially a barren wasteland. We have the technology.

Reminds me of the agenda 21 and environmental sustainability. What kind of sustainability? That of the corporate pigs and whores or the kind that is beneficial towards the planet and it's inhabitants? So far, I think the planet and its habitants are the ones losing. The greed and selfishness of a few will most likely be the end of us all. If Mother Earth is truly a living entity, we all will be flushed away, lest we become the new Mars.

Originally posted by dfens
Its a very concerted effort designed to squeeze tighter around the necks of beleagured folks who are not prepared to fight back efficiently. It seems that they are trying to provoke the most base reaction, which would be revolution, or chaos.

The order cannot start until after the chaos ensues, which will breed more chaos...

We take our agricultural staples and attempt to turn it into fuel. If oil controls countries, and food and water control people, why not turn the food and water into fuel which will break the people down even more efficiently?

The author of this article uses an interesting term; agflation. The study done reveals the impact of both market and political influence bringing about a crisis. It also details (on the third graph) the effect of the 2005 Energy Policy ACT brought into play by GW Bush.

I consider this only one facet of what needs to change.

The commodity traders:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/90b0ac04a404.png[/atsimg]

As in the graph presented at the conference there is clearly a strong correlation between the level of global hunger and the differential profits of the dominant traders. Moreover, we can also see that the differential profits of the food giants plummeted when world undernourishment figures fell at the end of 2009. The differential profits have since recovered and are now reaching the same levels that were achieved during the beginning of 2008. Similarly, there is now a massive rise in global hunger as the number of undernourished people in the world looks set to increase to over one billion once again.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b1e75c17791a.png[/atsimg]

The eruption of food riots in 30 countries during the 2007-2008 highlighted the antagonism that such markup increases engender and the risk that sustaining that level of sabotage might entail. The profit share of revenues has once again exceeded the 3% mark and again there is an outbreak of global tumult. This is not to say inclement weather conditions have not played a role in these two food crises. However, as Michael Watts has argued in relation to his work on famines in Nigeria: “climate risk is not given by nature but by ‘negotiated settlement’” as each society has institutional, social and technological means for coping with risk. And we might add that the terms and conditions of ‘this settlement’ are increasingly dictated by the dominant agricultural commodity traders.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/dadc8e63bfb7.png[/atsimg]

As can be seen, up until recently the prices of crude oil and palm oil were negatively correlated. However, after 2005 their price movements have had a very tight positive correlation. This dramatic change was probably in part brought about by 2005 Energy Policy Act that was passed during George Bush Junior’s presidency. It pledged huge subsidies for the ‘alternative energy’ sector and stipulated massive increases in the amount of biofuel to be mixed with gasoline. This proved to be a real fillip for the emergent food-fuel complex. There has been even more favorable legislation passed since then. And it now seems that palm oil is priced in the same way as crude.

www.yorku.ca...

Is our dear capitalist system actually making things worse?