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posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 03:52 PM
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In another attempt to dampen enthusiasm and regain a semblance of short-term control, the CME raised Silver margin requirements....again. Agent BB's with advanced knowledge of this decision were provided with another opportunity to open the precious metals discount window as we head into Monday OpEx. As usual, the fruits of this labor will be short lived.

If today's market kinda smelled fishy...now you know why.


Thursday, 24 March 2011
And Like Clockwork, CME Hikes Silver Margins Halting Surge

In tried and true fashion, just as Silver was about to viciously destabilize the global capital markets as it surged to new 31 year highs, the CME stepped in and did its usual 3-6 half life intervention by hiking initial and maintenance margins on silver futures from $11,138 and $8,250 to $11,745 and $8,700 respectively. This is merely the latest margin hike in what appears to be a neverneding series designed to reduce speculative "fervor" courtesy of endless liquidity. What it will do is merely provide a better entry point for those who by now realize that silver's next stop in the fiat endgame is $40, then $50, and so forth. Naturally, the price drop in silver caused gold to sell off too. And now that the CME accepts gold as collateral, we can't even visualize the reflexive loops that develop once the metal that is also a collateral currency becomes more and less valuable at the same time. - Link




posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 04:06 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 


the only think this does is make me buy more for less!



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 04:09 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 


So in your opinion, how long to wait to buy more? I held off today as I seen this coming. But for how long do you think?



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 04:11 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 

That is a minor margin hike percentage wise and justified from the excess volatility (average range of $1/day = $5000) but it is also the reason given for the last major correction of $5 late last year.



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 04:12 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 

I will be there at $31 scale down to buy more.....
With futures if we test $26 again.



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 04:27 PM
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On raising margens,,
I want to know who the Custodian is for these silver contracts ??? It pisses me off, they do this with no warning at all on all my other positions I'm notified of a date then they do it,,



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 06:54 PM
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reply to post by jude11
 


So in your opinion, how long to wait to buy more? I held off today as I seen this coming. But for how long do you think? - jude11


Hey jude. I can't answer your question with certainty, noone can, and often "what we think" really translates to "what we wish". I can tell you that with my trading allotments I try to let price lead, buying specific price points on the way down, and selling 'em on the way up. IMO, trying to trade tops & bottoms in this market can be harmful to your account balance, and other living things. I nibbled at a couple of undervalued Jrs today, and have bids sitting well below market on a couple of majors should we see more downside than I anticipate. Typically price remains under pressure into OpEx (sarcastically - the precious metals discount window), that would be Monday, but lets see what happens as we head into Asia tonight.

Gold's reaction to Silver margins....

Today



CME hikes Silver margins November 9, 2010


Somebody got a jump on the news


*Nothing in this post should be construed as reliable investment advice*
edit on 24-3-2011 by OBE1 because: Light Housekeeping



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:04 PM
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Originally posted by rancher1
On raising margens,,
I want to know who the Custodian is for these silver contracts ??? It pisses me off, they do this with no warning at all on all my other positions I'm notified of a date then they do it,,


The Exchange (COMEX) now owned by the CME is the party to all buyers and sellers and has to have performance bonds (margins) to ensure that the contracts are not defaulted on. Since 98-99% of futures contracts are offset prior to expiration and do not involve delivery (something people seem to forget when they talk about all of the "naked shorts" in silver.....and since the margins usually represent between 5-10% of the total cash value of the contract, the exchange has to make sure that the losers pay and dont stick it to the exchange which has to credit the accounts of those whose trades are profitable on a daily basis.



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:09 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 

FWIW: Key Reversal today in Gold (day range altho we did take out yest electronic session low but didnt close there) and a Doji Day in Silver (japanese candlestick pattern often depicting loss of momentum at the extreme like a ball at the top of its apex trajectory but sometimes just a pause).



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:11 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 


Thanks.

I'm not an investor per se. More of a holder. Just hedging against the bottoms up scenario and wanting to have some physical on hand instead of cash.

I don't buy the silver paper promises and I don't spend 10's of thousands. Just 100oz physical at a time so as not to be flushed in case of a massive drop.

In this way, as I believe a lot of people are, we watch a $1 drop and it means $100. Nothing alarming.

But on the other side, a $1 drop tells me it's a good time to pay attention and pick up another 100oz thus profiting the $100 instead.

Simple, easy and not destructive is my approach. Maybe not market shattering but it has been working for me within my affordability range.

Thanks for your input.



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:21 PM
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Probable retracements in silver:
Px / P
$36 - 80%
$34 - 70%
$31 - 50%
$28 - 30%
$26 - 20%
$25 - 10%

($37 was 90% but is now an affait accompli)
edit on 24-3-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:26 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
Probable retracements in silver:
Px / P
$36 - 80%
$34 - 70%
$31 - 50%
$28 - 30%
$26 - 20%
$25 - 10%

($37 was 90% but is now an affait accompli)
edit on 24-3-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)


Here's hoping:

$34 - 70%
$31 - 50%



posted on Mar, 24 2011 @ 07:48 PM
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reply to post by jude11
 

Yes and to $28 (30%). After a leg is completed and this one may be the commodity or index usually (according to the Elliott Wave principle) retraces to the wave 4 of the previous degree. The w4 of the leg up from late Jan is $33.57~ and the W4 of the bigger move up from the Feb 2010 low is 26.40 (basis May Silver Futures). So we cant rule out a drop down to $26+....these prices and probabilities are ceteris paribus (all things being equal) as there are extraneous factors at work in the world (controlled implosion of the dollar, natural and man made crises in the world) that can change everything. One note of caution (caveat): markets usually go further in both directions than one would reasonably expect.



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 11:10 AM
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Well, still hovering at 37. And still waiting for a sharp drop.

Anyone sensing a timeline as to when or if this will happen?



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 11:15 AM
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reply to post by jude11
 

That is the trickey part,,,,,it is still resilient and people dont like to liquidate longs going into a weekend (something might happen). We could even try to make another high in silver first (towards $39) but with gold failing to confirm (they already got the stops yesterday) and then we go down next week. It could take a couple of months,,,,maybe 21-26 May for a low. IF Silver breaches 39 and Gold goes thru 1455 then we are likely off to the races.



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 11:27 AM
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reply to post by jude11
 

As important as the price level and the time is the character of the drop. IT needs to be large and swift....it cant' be a gradual drift or no one will panic. But it can drift and then have a mini crash going into the low. A good week down with several days of multi $ drops and then hold it there for a day or two to force leveraged longs out on margin calls and to give those nervous physical longs time to liquidate....then it will come out of the hole like a bat out of hell (or a beach ball from under the water). Not a week total but a sharp fast drop the final week (out of 2 months) into the low.
edit on 25-3-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 11:50 AM
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when silver takes out 36.85 then this top is probably locked in and we wont go hjigher first. IMO.
it is not a good sign to be breaking like this on a Friday (and confirming the Key Reversal in GOLD and the DOJI in SILVER/.



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 12:53 PM
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Short term resistance at 37.20-.25 now.....
fwiw, next downside target if 36.74-.85 comes out is 36 even area.



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 04:11 PM
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The hourly chart in silver looks like a w4 to have one more leg up....we could retest today;s low first but the fact that we couldnt take out yest low (36.85) which is just above the prev high of 36.745 is bullish til proven otherwise (despite the sell off which was inevitable but a question of degree until we get decisively under 36.80 +/- .05). The first of the month (automatic monthly purchases) on April 1st (april fool's day) could be the high (but gold will probably fail). First, however we have options expiration to see what effect it has on the market.



posted on Mar, 25 2011 @ 04:34 PM
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Why buy silver ? because it will crash J P Morgan and end the Fed.

Buy silver..crash J P Morgan.

The Silver bullet.

Cosmic...





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