Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 , page
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Topic started on 22-3-2011 @ 08:57 PM by Romanian

Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated.


Source:
www.sciencedaily.com...



The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year.


So, from 2014 it will be impossible to increase the global oil production, and we will see a constant decline of the global output. 2014 is not very far , so we will see who is right and who is wrong.


reply posted on 22-3-2011 @ 09:25 PM by brewing
reply to post by Romanian



Well as long as we aren't drilling in America than we are at the mercy of those that do. So yeah...we probably are close to peak production. I live near the Gulf so once I can't drive my car to work anymore I can always call in and then walk down to the beach and watch the dolphins swim by.


reply posted on 22-3-2011 @ 09:28 PM by duality90
Originally posted by Romanian

Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated.


Source:
www.sciencedaily.com...



The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year.


So, from 2014 it will be impossible to increase the global oil production, and we will see a constant decline of the global output. 2014 is not very far , so we will see who is right and who is wrong.



Forgive me for not reading the quoted article (it's quite late here and I'm off to bed after this), but what is meant by 'conventional' crude production? The technology in the industry has been changing and evolving in the past few years allowing the industry to drill further and deeper than ever before. That, coupled with the fact that we appear to be able to take crude from oil sands (as in Canada - albeit at a currently inefficient rate of energy input) means that production and exploration have been proceeding as normal, if not at an increased rate, the past few years.



reply posted on 22-3-2011 @ 09:29 PM by duality90
Originally posted by brewing
reply to
post by Romanian



Well as long as we aren't drilling in America than we are at the mercy of those that do. So yeah...we probably are close to peak production. I live near the Gulf so once I can't drive my car to work anymore I can always call in and then walk down to the beach and watch the dolphins swim by.


haha. I don't think the American economy could continue to function with significantly reduced oil reserves, not only because of the need for oil and gas in manufacturing, but also (and principally) because everything is so spread out in the states these days (suburbs et c) the people would never be able to get to work, unlike here in the UK and Europe where it is possible to get around without a car, even if you don't live in a large city or near the city centre.


reply posted on 23-3-2011 @ 04:49 PM by Romanian
reply to post by Flavian



I guess it is Hubbert if I remember the name of the guy well. He predicted the US peak with good accuracy . The peak on a global scale happened in 2005-2008 however it was not obvious if this was enforced by the recession , or we talk about the real deal. 2014 is in 3 years so we have trouble ahead for sure...


reply posted on 23-3-2011 @ 05:24 PM by Romanian
reply to post by stirling





The Canadian oil stuck in the sand is equivalent to 15 years of global consumption (or 400 years if Canada would use it at the rate of todays economy). Regardless of the environmental impact, I am sure this will be extracted to the last drop. However id does not change the peak theory at all, the calculations are including the tar sands in Canada and other countries. The fact that we actually extract the oil from the sands is proof we reached the peak - otherwise we would get easier to extract oil.


reply posted on 23-3-2011 @ 05:59 PM by Gradius Maximus
reply to post by Romanian



Local oil is always cheaper then shipping it over seas - regardless of how hard it is to extract.


reply posted on 24-3-2011 @ 10:35 AM by Flavian
reply to post by Romanian



Yeah thanks, think you are right with Hubbert. And definately right about us being in trouble. I mean we depend on oil for everything don't we? Even food which is a worrying thought!
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