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New Estimate for Alien Earths: 2 Billion in Our Galaxy Alone

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posted on Mar, 22 2011 @ 11:41 PM
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reply to post by caf1550
 


nay sir, don't expect even anything like Earth to develop. Evolution is not linear. have you ever looked at the work of Nemo Ramjet? Some the the most plausible life forms out there. Dinosaur life, in fact, is more likely to harbor intelligence like that of ourselves. It is a fluke of nature that we even developed.

There will not likely be any human like out there. You are likely to find an intelligent jelly fish first.

In fact, what is good to know, is that we will be likely able to send probes at warp speed to the nearest solar systems by the 2060s or so. Believe it or not but we know today how to do it, we simply don't have the money nor care to do it. When it becomes productive however, someone will.




posted on Mar, 22 2011 @ 11:50 PM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


so you don't believe we will find a species like ours, atleast in our lifetime? interesting indeed



posted on Mar, 22 2011 @ 11:55 PM
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reply to post by caf1550
 


There is a very very very low chance that we will by chance pass by somebody that looks like us. An exact copy? No. There's a few possible routes through evolution to get this form. But that does not guarantee this form. Take a look at Earth. Of the hundreds of millions of species that have come and gone, only 2 are upright bipedal animals. Ourselves and penguins. Only one is intelligent.

We are far more likely to find intelligent crows and raptors, sea creatures like dolphins, or elephants and other species. Some civilized and well established. Finding an upright bipedal humanoid? Very very unlikely.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 12:06 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


now what would your definetion of intelligent life be.

would you say that they would have to evolve over time and develope a language, use tools, create cities and start with farming and move on

or could they be like dolphin or whale intelligent where it has been shown that they are pretty smart when it comes to species on this planet.

i agree with you when you say that we will most likely not find humaniod species like us, but just because we developed this way doesn't mean that life can't be intelligent in another way.

and just to back up one of your earlier post about how only a handful of planets in the milkey way could harbor intelligent life i give you the Drake Equation

In 1961, University of California, Santa Cruz astronomer and astrophysicist Dr. Frank Drake devised the Drake equation. This controversial equation multiplied estimates of the following terms together:

The rate of formation of suitable stars.
The fraction of those stars which are orbited by planets.
The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system.
The fraction of planets where intelligent life develops.
The fraction of possible communicative planets.
The "lifetime" of possible communicative civilizations.
Drake used the equation to estimate that there are approximately 10,000 planets in the Milky Way galaxy containing intelligent life with the possible capability of communicating with Earth.[42]

Based on observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, there are at least 125 billion galaxies in the Universe. It is estimated that at least ten percent of all sun-like stars have a system of planets,[43] i.e. there are 6.25×1018 stars with planets orbiting them in the Universe. Even if we assume that only one out of a billion of these stars have planets supporting life, there would be some 6.25×109 (billion) life-supporting planetary systems in the Universe.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 12:21 AM
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reply to post by caf1550
 


Handful of humanoid intelligence. life is very likely in every single solar system with multiple planets. It is very likely on Mars, Venus, and Europa, and somewhat likely on Jupiter Saturn and a few moons. in our solar system alone.

The fact is we remain the only species on our planet with this level of intelligence, but that does not mean that a less intelligent species could not get as far as us. In fact, statistically we are more likely to find species like Neanderthals in space.

This is the most interesting thing. We are an exponential unstable species. Far more stable linear species, that develop NOT from imagination and iteration, but from trial and error and repetitiveness, would be far more stable.


In fact, it's hardly even plausible to meet a species with human levels of intelligence. But they will still be in space and out there in the galaxy. They just develop far more slowly and more stably than us.

Many people assume that because we are at the top that we will only find intelligence like ourselves. In fact, what is far more true is that we very likely are the most intelligent thing in the universe, but NOT the most stable, nor the most likely to get into space. We don't exactly know what happened 50,000 years ago when our species was born. What we do know is that the human form has existed for many eons longer than the human species. We, through whatever fluke of nature, got this far in intelligence. And factually speaking we are probably the only ones with it ever. It was simply a mistake. Not a bad one, not a good one. Just simply what made us us.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:04 AM
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Originally posted by NewEmpire816
This is kinda old news but very interesting


THIS IS NOT OLD NEWS UR INSANE. This new article was posted on Space.com yesterday or 2 days ago since its past 12:00 where i am now but still. Get your facts straight this is a new ESTIMATE



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:07 AM
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Originally posted by xShadow13
reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


I love the image of the earths in a spiral. 2 billion is a lot of alien earths but do you realize how long it would take to get there? The light beams coming from the A.E.s are probably thousands of years old, and they could all be destroyed.


Where do you crazy people get this information from i never said we were able to travel there soon? Are you insane. I'm just stating the fact that these planets are possibly very common and we can travel to them but its probably centuries if not thousands of years past our current tech



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:10 AM
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Originally posted by StaceyWilson
Thats just awesome , it really is .
But .... i agree with some posters here , and ill take it further in saying , can we take a pause and think about what we are doing here , do we really want TPTB leading us to another earth (which might have an indigenous people..Avatar) , Do we really think our current Political figures will ever stop Mining , Will we purge the New Earth of all its Resources as well ? Will the Bankers control everything ?
Unless an advanced race chooses to slip you and everything you need and love to these earths , these planets would just be an extension of This Earth , as it stands currently , something i wouldnt wish on any planet

edit on 22-3-2011 by StaceyWilson because: (no reason given)


Don't be so pessimistic. We can overcome our human nature eventually maybe through evolution we will become a more sentient and moral species. Were just going through a phase. I'm sure most advanced civilizations experience this. Don't be so quick to JUDGE



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:16 AM
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Originally posted by Gorman91
reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


Please do not assume that means civilization. From a basic estimate:

it took 4.5 billion years to get to us. We are one of some 6-10 humanoid species, the only one that survived.

2 billion goes down very fast. Even if we are around average age for a world, and we can guess between 14 billion to 2 billion for life forms, we then end up with roughly 1.25 billion world with life at our phase. We than also get around a 10th of those with humanoid recognizable intelligent life. (this based off the diversity of intelligence here on Earth. Of those 120 million or so, we then cut out about another 7/8, because of so many failed humanoids on Earth. Of those some 15 million, only about 20% will survive through plague, war, and disaster, this being based off the fact that only really China and Southern Europe were anywhere called civilized for most of history. Other factors bring us down to a mere couple million with distinctive humanoid civilizations. And we can just assume most of them are not going to be good folks. There are other factors one could argue that bring it down more.

In the end, we're looking at a total of some couple thousand planets with people and civilizations ranging from Clueless Neanderthals to nice folks like you and me.


The ignorance amazes me from one planet you can't get real numbers about the amount of civ's existing on other planets until we get much more habitable planet in the study will i listen to someone babble about numbers.

BEE, DOLPHINS , ANTS, WHALES These are all quite sophisticated semi-sentient lifeforms. We were just a fluke You can't go on spouting how often it happens on habitable planets when we only have Earth as a source to get data from. WAIT till we investigate other habitable planets... which will be in thousands,hundreds of years or even longer...



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:17 AM
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Originally posted by Gorman91
reply to post by caf1550
 


There is very likely 1 billion civilizations in the galaxy right now. The question is, are they familiar? For if they are not, we may not fully understand how not to get into a war or offend them.

That said, probably only 3 or so are actually galactic civilizations. You're not going to find star wars or star trek civilizations. You're going to find them maybe in 3-5 solar systems. Sure they'd have explored thousands of solar systems, probably by probes, but they are only going to be physically present on a few dozen planets in a few solar systems.

Look at our own society? The more we value life and the more we grow technological, the more we want to sit back, relax, and talk. I tell you this. It's very likely the first civilization we meet is going to be a holographic recording of a civilization that died off eons ago, but lived on in a computerized world sort of. We will be talking to the digital souls of those whom died off eons ago.

The aliens of our science fiction, and in particular, our own ufology nonsense, are not only physically impossible in many cases, but they are simply not plausible from a purely common sense logical analysis of our own society and other animals out there.


I agree with you on this completely.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:21 AM
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Originally posted by Gorman91
reply to post by caf1550
 


There is a very very very low chance that we will by chance pass by somebody that looks like us. An exact copy? No. There's a few possible routes through evolution to get this form. But that does not guarantee this form. Take a look at Earth. Of the hundreds of millions of species that have come and gone, only 2 are upright bipedal animals. Ourselves and penguins. Only one is intelligent.

We are far more likely to find intelligent crows and raptors, sea creatures like dolphins, or elephants and other species. Some civilized and well established. Finding an upright bipedal humanoid? Very very unlikely.


We must also keep an open mind about possible plasma based life forms and life in space on dead planets not orbiting stars. There was a recent article about rogue planets being able to heat themselves warm enough to support life from the heat of their core... Also maybe possible life on gas giant planets. We don't know alot yet there is still alot to learn the possibilities seem endless



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:22 AM
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reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


In truth and theory you are correct. But we have become sophisticated in know enough to begin estimating what's probably out there. We know now that we are lucky to find ourselves on a world like Earth. because Earth is vastly ranging in situations and climates. Thus, we can extrapolate to some degree what's out there.

Hell, you may find sentient or cellular stars, filled with plasma based reactions, competing with each other in a vast nebula environment.
edit on 23-3-2011 by Gorman91 because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:23 AM
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reply to post by caf1550
 


The Drake equation is actually Quite laughable theres much evidence nowadays like what this article is on that makes the Drake equation Redundant/Obsolete Please do not mention it ever again because its a pessimistic way at looking at life's abundance in the universe >



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:29 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 



Imagine the type of life bearing worlds that are possibly able to bear life if we keep an open mind

Possible life bearing worlds Types from Modern Strict Science
-Earth like planets
-Super Earths
-Mars Size and smaller (with sufficient Atmosphere and Magnetosphere)
-Moons of various sizes around Gas Giants
-Desert Planets
- Ocean planets
-Ice planets
-Lava planets
-Gas Giants ( Possibility of life lets keep an open mind)
-Rogue Planets (Planets without a sun)
-Dwarf Planets/Asteroids (Possible Hollow sections with habitable space inside of it if the size isn't sufficient to sustain Magnetosphere and atmosphere)
- Unknown types we don't know yet
-Possible Plasma planets( Just a Theory)



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:36 AM
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reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


My only objection is lava planets. Just not really good for any type of life. There are buffer zones where life can hold on, just not that good.

I actually am working on a kind of animation dealing with the first manned warp ship from Earth.

It's exciting to know that in fact within our lifetime, technology will allow for probes to get to FTL speeds.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 02:13 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


How do you know about this FTL (Faster than light) TECH?. Can you tell me where your getting this info from
please do share



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 02:22 AM
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reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


Actually it's from a way back when I talked with the late JKrog08 and a few other scientific minded people. I presented the idea and let them look at it. Some said maybe, but all agreed it had potential. When I eventually started a topic on it a long time ago, some rejected it, but not for any defined reason.

Since that conversation, it's been updated in some degree. To explain it from a simple perspective, E=mc^2. Light can generate gravity. And because E=mc^2, light is far better at doing it than mass. Using concentrated light to generate a gravity well, once can place this to the front and back of a ship of some sort. In the front, the more energy you input, the most gravity gets generated. In the back, we do the same, but also spin the unit generating the gravity well as well, at a rotation axis perpendicular to the forward generator. At a certain speed, this generates an ergosphere. The ergosphere generator falls into the gravity well faster than the ship generating it does. This makes the ship gain speed from gravity acceleration. By extending this ergosphere around the entire ship, and canceling out the gravity waves the ship itself is occupying, the ship can be encased in an ergosphere while itself remains at normal relativity. This lets the ergosphere fall into the gravity well faster than the speed of light,even though the ship itself is not going at FTL. There you have it. Warp speed.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 02:25 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


YOU ARE A GENIOUS
. WE NEED TO BRING THIS TO NASA SLIPSTREAM JUST LIKE IN THE HALO NOVELS or STARTREK. ETC We need to do this i always believed that the slowing of time when going near speed of light or faster was purposely like that so we could not age when traveling to other systems far away at high speed. Or maybe that wouldn't work with your theory but oh well we'll be cyborgs that can live forever by then



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 02:27 AM
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reply to post by XRaDiiX
 


Not genius. Just good at taking what is known and organizing it into a coherent structure for a platform to invent on. many have theorized the same. Only thing is the power needs are huge. maybe if you could use a resonance frequency to change the flavor of quarks you could generate antimatter to fuel it, but who knows.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 03:24 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


The LHC generated Anti-matter google it. I read an article about light having mass a while ago ever since they i always believed that light had mass.. modern day physics is seriously flawed!




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