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Gold and Silver are Poised to Sell Off Monday (Post No Fly Attack)

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posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 09:36 AM
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Dollar rally is failing....but the metals just rallied back to where they should fail again. However, a sell off today (and that was from the expected higher opening not from Friday;s close, btw) needs the dollar to rally to give it some fuel on the downside today in the metals (a sell off in crude oil would help to facilitate it as well). Now that the markets have been open for over 2 hrs if we make new highs now (essentially opened at the high and rolled over) then it wont happen.




posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 10:10 AM
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i dont think there is any sales in any of the gold, silver and oil. the only thing saling off it the $$$$



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 10:47 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


You haven't got money riding on this on the Forex have you?

Hope your stop loss is healthy!



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 11:47 AM
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Gold and Silver completed a possible 5th wave failure elliott wave pattern in the last half an hour and this is bearish as long as the recent highs hold.



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 11:49 AM
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reply to post by JakiusFogg
 

not in the dollar index per se - just probing the short side of the metals.



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 11:55 AM
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Look for an intraday Low in Gold and SIlver around 14:30 EDT (solar-lunar turn time) that corresponded with a turn time at 08:10 (which was the high of the day - prior to NY opening).
edit on 21-3-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 11:59 AM
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It doesn't seem to be happening today. Really wish the price would drop sometime this week, as I plan on purchasing 5-10k in silver by the end of the month. I may hold out another week or so in hopes that it drops a dollar or two, but am not counting on it.



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 12:11 PM
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reply to post by unityemissions
 

I took another look at the longer term chart of the dollar index (currently around 75.72). From an Elliott Wave perspective the low is not in. It probably finished iii:5 and needs a 2 day rally back to 76.40~ and then a 3-5 day drop into 74.70-75.00 (half way between the Nov 2010 and 2008 Lows)....then a big rally back to 81 +/~. We are on the precipice....but it probably will not implode this time. And the PMs seem content to wait for that USD rally.

edit on 21-3-2011 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 12:20 PM
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Anecdotally, I told a particular acquaintance to buy silver 3 years ago in the $12 area (coming off of the mid $8 lows) he did not buy....late last week he told me that he was going to basically go "all in.": We are up 3x that level. Fwiw, typically this type of buying comes in at a high......(not that this is "the high" but it is time for the 'johnny come latelies' to experience a "gut check.").



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 02:19 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


Yeah, but they'll get it all back...That's if there's a sell off. Which I don't see, at least not yet.

Between OPEC selling off 9% of their US holding, PIMCO dumpig all of their holdings, Japan may not be buying anymore bonds in the near future, and if my theory hold any water, will probably sell some...or a lot...There's a lot of pressure on the dollar right now, so I'm not seeing gold and silver in for a sell off just yet.
edit on 21-3-2011 by projectvxn because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 07:36 PM
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My very first purchase was at the low November '08, and I've been incrementally purchasing ever since. I plan to continue buying until the collapse is about to be realized ... maybe 2-5 years out, and then purchase land where I think is best to raise a family in the following years.



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 08:57 PM
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Should have picked up some Uranium stocks on the Japan dip

As they say, be fearful when other's are greedy (gold) and be greedy when others are fearful (uranium)



posted on Mar, 21 2011 @ 09:15 PM
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The sell off from the ny open to close was only about $10 and we never traded lower on the day (silver held up even better) but the potential was there given the time elements (incl spring equinox). Look at the summer solstice last year - we dropped about $38 that day (and it didnt line up with a 3 yr cycle, etc). The chart pattern looks like we could be in for another leg up after the recent correction but the alternate count was that it could be an EW "B" wave given the timing elements.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 09:59 AM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
The sell off from the ny open to close was only about $10 and we never traded lower on the day (silver held up even better) but the potential was there given the time elements (incl spring equinox). Look at the summer solstice last year - we dropped about $38 that day (and it didnt line up with a 3 yr cycle, etc). The chart pattern looks like we could be in for another leg up after the recent correction but the alternate count was that it could be an EW "B" wave given the timing elements.


Lol - not content with not only being completely wrong, but you are falling back on more hocus pocus Elliot Wave rubbish to try to cover tracks.

The problem with Elliot Wavers is, on sites like this, there indeed probably is some susceptible people who - without knowing the atrocious track record of EW, or is that a 'perfect record' of being completely and utterly wrong - that were anyone to follow such advice and actually trade on this kind of forecast, they could or would be seriously out of pocket now.

Not only was there "no big sell off", but gold is now only a few dollars off all time record prices. Gold closed up on Monday, and up again Tuesday, and looks like it should close up again today.

As mentioned before, EW completely eschews fundamentals, and therefore is so out of touch with market gyrations that were anyone to take advice from an Elliot Waver, you'd be broke in no time.

If you are going to make big predictions on the back of such a persistently wrong scam such as EW, you really should include a warning up front too of the true track record of EW and the snakeoil men behind it - who have been calling for a "big sell off in gold" for the past few years and past several hundred dollars, and would have lost untold money for party-faithful traders, not to mention losses in opportunity cost for metals buyers waiting for this big drop since 800 gold.

You might think I am being harsh, but if you consider that even if there is maybe one person who took your advice and shorted gold (against all logic and fundamentals), they would now be seriously underwater - and that is not really cricket - every EW post should include a counter post warning people of its miserable track record.
edit on 23-3-2011 by cloudbreak because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 12:02 PM
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Deja Vu all over again cloudbreak.....

SELL GOLD & SILVER NOW: SHAKE OUT NEXT WEEK!!!

The OP never addressed his last failed [sensational] prognostication...

before issuing yet a another.

Trying to pinpoint interim tops in this market is a mugs game, which is why veteran chartistas never risk issuing date specific top calls. What we have here is an amateur attempting to achieve guru status with one lucky post. Very risky in terms one's of credibility, and a costly lesson for anyone foolish enough to trade their recommendations.

In case anyone missed it, on a closing basis, Comex Silver gave us a new 30 yr high yesterday closing @ 36.35, and a new 30 year intraday high today.

*Not advice*



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 12:20 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 

The call was for a one day sell off that was muted in gold (~$10 from the higher opening altho it did close near the lows) but failed in silver (altho it did sell off ~ 50cts before rallying to a new intraday high and closed firm). The price action despite the potential based on 8, 3 yr and 9 mos cycles did not reverse but the potential was there..... (as it was when it sold off $38 last June 21st on the summer solstice). It was a tradeable day in the gold (silver has a stronger fundamental dynamic but it was vulnerable if gold dropped significantly). I have to say that the fact that these metals just stalled at these cyclical points and are now poised for new highs (silver already has done so this am) is quite bullish when gold confirms with a new high over 1445.70. BTW, the US Dollar has rallied today (up ~ .50) but the metals are on a tear. 37.20-.25 in silver is a technical (mathematical) area but it is in new highs for the run. Gold is back into resistance and if it makes a new high it will add fuel to the fire. If silver pulls back to the former recent highs (36.745) then I would expect it to hold and then rally to 39. BTW, I was looking for 39 by the supermoon/vernal equinox but it didnt happen so I made the call based on the time not the price (which it didnt get to).
39 = 3 x fibonacci 13, 31 (last major high) + fib 8 = 39, 26 (last major low) + fib 13 = 39....above that there is 42 which is 2 x fib 21 and we are close to the 3 yr anniv of the 21+ high in 2008 so there could be a resonance off of 21 (ie x 2). So....39-42 is the next Major Target area in Silver but we are still at the former Major area in Gold (which was the 1980 high of 850 - the 1999 low of 255 flipped up to 1445....that same measure in silver is 21.35 down to 8.36 flipped up which is 39.34. But there is no longer a good time parameter to reach it like there was for the supermoon and the equinox.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 12:30 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 

Please dont treat me like I am some perennial bear. I stood up in the middle of an Introducing Broker commodity firm that I was co-founder of when the price of silver hit $3.515 and announced (I was doing the Elliott Wave analysis) that we are witnessing the all time low in silver from this point on.....for ever. I purchased a lot between 3.90 and 5.00 and then didnt buy hardly any again until it dropped to the 9 dollar area during the 2008 sell off (I was a little early but didnt want to let it get away)....basically going all in. Also bot gold in the 350-370 area and again at 720 and 840 in 2008. But you have to admit that we have come a long way,,,,,and it always looks most bullish at the top. I am also on record (but probably not on this forum) as calling for $145-160 in silver and 3500 in gold in current dollars but those figures can go much higher if we get hyper inflation. The market is vulnerable to a final shake out which will leave the little guys in the dust and out before they take it up on a currency change. I have a friend (co-founder of brokerage firm before I left several years later) who rode the 1980 market up long 40 bags of ($1000) silver to the top and all the way down again....he never sold which was a shame.....but he is still long and has added eagles over the last decade. Buy and Hold works if you can be that patient.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:20 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


And I'm the King of England.

Look, bottom line, you're analysis is flawed. Anyone that followed you off a cliff at 30 Silver missed a 20% move. Those that were dissuaded from acquiring a new position at that level, are now faced with paying an additional 20% just to get in, and they still run the [increasing] risk of a correction from current prices.

The road to 37 is paved with failed top-callers and the folks they take-down with them. Always quick to seek the glory...revisit their successes...while never acknowledging their failures.

Some people have real money at risk here...enough already...please.

*Not advice*



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 01:31 PM
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reply to post by OBE1
 

I have a core holding from a single digit average....but have lightened up on physical scale up (esp in the area of silver being up tenfold to 36+). I will buy back scale down from 31-28 and if we get a stock market debacle like 2008 where everything goes down and silver goes between 23-26 I will leverage it up (looking for 58-62 by tJanuary of next year).
If gold makes a new high then I will have to pay up to get back long 100% again. Sorry you are not long from $5 and are looking for $500 by the end of the year.



posted on Mar, 23 2011 @ 11:46 PM
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Originally posted by OBE1
Deja Vu all over again cloudbreak.....

SELL GOLD & SILVER NOW: SHAKE OUT NEXT WEEK!!!

The OP never addressed his last failed [sensational] prognostication...

before issuing yet a another.

Trying to pinpoint interim tops in this market is a mugs game, which is why veteran chartistas never risk issuing date specific top calls. What we have here is an amateur attempting to achieve guru status with one lucky post. Very risky in terms one's of credibility, and a costly lesson for anyone foolish enough to trade their recommendations.

In case anyone missed it, on a closing basis, Comex Silver gave us a new 30 yr high yesterday closing @ 36.35, and a new 30 year intraday high today.

*Not advice*


Indeed OBE. I do not have any problem with people extrapolating from charts per se, but it's another thing when it is said with authority and WITHOUT any such disclaimers or in total disregard of fundamentals.

EW has proven that time and time again its costly - if not downright bankrupting - history, for anyone silly enough to subscribe to it without taking fundamentals into account. Sadly, there are many who still uphold the faith, purely on account of the undivided authority by which Prechter et al issue Elliot Wave calls.

Oh well, some people I guess have to learn the hard way.

Not saying I am any better judge of markets, but as I said, I would always consider fundamentals first before historical chart patterns. Patterns are a consideration, perhaps, but not something to trade on on their own.

Chances are, there well could be someone thinking of a short, and posts like the OP's could have pushed them into executing it. You could say well...it's up to the trader of course to do his own due diligence, but still...disclaimers and counter posts highlighting the flipside are only fair.




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