Must Read: STRATFOR Releases Timeline And Reasoning For "Libyan War Of 2011"

I've enjoyed reading STRATFOR for a few years now, but since their analyses are normally unavailable to non-subscribers I haven't used them as a source but once, despite the fact that they have the smartest people on the planet working there and they are nearly always right.

Today, they have released an analysis of the Libyan War that is free and available to anyone. Here's a taste:

War commences with two sets of attacks. The first attacks are decapitation attacks designed to destroy or isolate the national command structure. These may also include strikes designed to kill leaders such as Gadhafi and his sons or other senior leaders. These attacks depend on specific intelligence on facilities, including communications, planning and so on along with detailed information on the location of the leadership.



Attacks on buildings are carried out from the air but not particularly with cruise missile because they are especially accurate if the targets are slow, and buildings aren’t going anywhere. At the same time, aircraft are orbiting out of range of air defenses awaiting information on more mobile targets and if such is forthcoming, they come into range and fire appropriate munitions at the target. The type of aircraft used depends on the robustness of the air defenses, the time available prior to attack and the munitions needed. They can range from conventional fighters or stealth strategic aircraft like the U.S. B-2 bomber (if the United States authorized its use). Special operations forces might be on the ground painting the target for laser-guided munitions, which are highly accurate but require illumination.
CLICKY CLICKY FOR AWESOME SAUCE

Did that teenage 4-Chan garbage REALLY just fly out of my fingers?

Getting back to serious biznizz, I wonder if they are right again. If they are, say "Bye Bye" to Moammar. Stick a fork in him, cause he's DONE.

reply to post by OldCorp


I wasn't aware that Congress passed a War resolution making our participation in this war legal. Damn it, nobody is seeming to notice this fine point.

Where have all the adults gone??

Thanks for sharing. It was a good read. it would appear the real worry regarding this conflict is who, or what nation is going to put boots on the ground after the defense infrastructure is softened. Very complicated subject, so many factors and variables to account for this early in the 'game'.
And now it would appear that the Lybian Government is arming a million of his people for the precursor of a ground invasion.www.abovetopsecret.com...

Thanks for the link, Stratfor, along with Janes Information Group offers a great (and unbiased) assessment of military actions worldwide.

Another benefit to the imposition of a no-fly zone is that it forces Gaddafi's forces to hunker down while the opposition forces can solidify their positions. It puts them on a more even footing, and if they can be supplied and armed by the Arab League members/coalition forces, this will be the ground army to take out Gaddafi, assuming that air strikes don't kill him.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere, is back in '86, the US flew airstrikes against Gaddafi, one of which killed one of his sons. (this was when he drew his "line of death" across the Gulf of Sidra). After that Gaddafi became much less belligerent, and started to dig massive underground bunkers and tunnels (which he claimed were for water pipelines). The suspicion was that these were really for storing arms and troops out of our air power's reach. I don't see this being mentioned in any of the strategy write-ups as a concern, but I'm sure it is. With the Bunker buster bombs we have I suppose they're still vulnerable.