posted on Mar, 18 2011 @ 01:32 AM
reply to post by bulletproof_monk
Hey. I used to professionally trade currencies and have won many national stock trading competitions. Also predicted the stock market crash a month
before it happened last year. When you watch ti as much has i do it all kinda just seems to repeat itself. Kind of sitting back and watching waves
come in and out on a beach. Pretty much what the stock market does, s well as currency.
I think the worse things are in Japan, the higher the Yen will go. During times liek this in well developed countries people tend to take out cash,
hold onto it, not invest it, and you get a period of accelerated deflation. Same thing happened when the stock market tumbled. We went through
deflation for a short period until we began to recover.
In an economy as established as Japan, the Yen will likely do the opposite of what the Japanese stock market does. Market does poorly....Yen gains
strength, Market recovers, Yen will lose strength. I think things will balance out and recover a bit once the major Japanese businesses get back to
operation and things start to be looked at in the rear view mirror. But it may have a while to digest it. Probably after you move. I also expect a bit
of a hit to the market when Quarterly expectations come in consistently lower due to this mess. Future outlooks for earnings and revenue will be
reduced. All will just feed off each other..Less money this quarter means less money next quarter to generate revenue. So may be a year or two of
reduced economic #s for Japan just from a little bit of work stoppage and delays now. Plus it takes time to stop a company and to get it goign again.
Liek a giant steam engine. I think there is a good chance the Yen will continue to gain strength for a while as more bad news and bad earnings come
out. Unlike the Stock crash a few years ago there isn't a big need to throw a trillion dollars at it to pretend nothing happened and to screw with
the currency rates. With japan traders will accept it happened and let it take its natural course. There is a physical reason for the market dropping.
Then again it may be artificially high right now due to all the panic. But i think the Yen will slowly lose some strength, maybe bounce around a bit,
But i think it will retain a lot of the strength it has recently gained.