*UPDATE* Jim Berkland (Geologist), W Coast Quake window starts March 19 2011 *ATS Experiment Added*

Originally posted by frozenspark
The only prediction that came true here on ATS was some dude saying he had a dream about Japan having an earthquake. No specific date or details were given.

Well, Japan is in the area that has earthquakes often, and its a waiting game before a big one strikes. With so many horrible "predictions" on this website, it is no wonder that someone's ambiguous, half-assed "prediction" came true.

I can say I have a dream that U.S. will have an earthquake.. sometime in the future. Eventually it will happen, and if it happens soon I will be heralded as some kind of prophet.

I'd like to address your comment if I may.

Your preaching to the choir as far as I'm concerned with regards to the numerous predictions that almost anyone can make and post it up and eventually someone is going to hit one of these right on the money. You'll have to trust me when I say I too am very skeptical to many if not almost all of them.

The reason why this gentleman intrigues me is that he is using science as his 'model' for a template, it's not a dream or a premonition or Hocus Pocus. Jim is a former United States Geological Society Geologist, a man of science, not of fringe beliefs. Does this mean that he has found the Holy Grail for a working model template? Absolutely not, but he has had a good "hit" ratio and may have stumbled on a way to add factors that we would shrug off as an every day occurrence. Hence our trying to perform a bit of an experiment. As I have said, I 'logically' can not conceive (in my mind) how certain factors can be associated with certain events. But as a researcher, I can not exclude data simply because I do not understand it.

To further illustrate this line of thinking..

My Mother and Grandmother (when she was alive), both could not wear watches of any kind. Why you may ask? Well, they would stop working (this is back in the day of wind up watches obviously). Our family would give them watches as gifts and within minutes to hours, the watch would cease to work. It didn't matter the make or manufacture, they just would simply stop running. Now after 10 or 11 watches being given all with the same end result, even the most skeptical must ask as to why that might be. Now one might say that it has something to do with the person's electrical or magnet fields (or other theories we have heard). but the bottomline is that the event did occur and our family learned not to give watches as gifts anymore, LOL. Now if it was limited to just watches, that would be one thing, but other devices seem to also be affected when they were nearby (IE: electrical devices, wireless phones, etc.).

Now I can not explain why that happens, but as sure as there is wind that I can't see but can see it's affects, I have to accept that information/data. And that is all were attempting to do here in this experiment. Although we may not believe that just because an animal acts strangely and that it may be due seismic activity in an area, we can't toss out that data simply because we don't accept it or understand it. We also have the Moon that affects the tides, just because I may not 'exactly understand' how it's able to affect the oceans, does not mean that I throw that data out because of my inability to fully grasp it.

We are in an area here that isn't Hocus Pocus, it more of a puzzle that we can't quite yet get all of the pieces on the same table. It's quite possible that one scientist/researcher has a few factors that seem to work sometimes, and another is using other data and factors. But it's only after gathering as much data as and information that we can that we can see where it takes us. Even in meteorology, a weather man can only announce (from the data gathered) if it's going to rain or be a sunny day. How often is he correct, is it all the time right on the money?

That's all were attempting here, were not trying to create more fears, were attempting to understand whats perhaps the precursor actions on Earth to some of these events. Wouldn't it be great if one day scientist could say for a fact that they had a 'working model' that could help predict when an earthquake might happen? Would it be 100% all the time? Unfortunately, just like meteorology, I think that there would be hit and misses, but there at least would be that data. And if a region or community had that information and it saved lives, would that be a justifiable reason to proceed in trying to find connections prior to a seismic event?

Again, I can't thank everyone enough for offering up your personal data for the experiment. And to those that have joined up simply to be able to post on this thread, I give a hearty "Welcome To ATS", were glad you lurked before, but are even happier now that you've joined our community. Were unlike any other forum as we have the best of all worlds here, we have the best of those that believe everything they hear, the best of those that are skeptical of everything they hear, and the best of those that don't care what the subject is, they'll find a way to debunk it, and then there are the others.. LOL. Obviously I made that a bit humorous sounding, but really, we have every genre covered. It sometimes resembles a Circus for the amount of varied content, but there is also a plethora of information in here for those that seek it. So again welcome newcomers!

OK, I'm going to get back into researcher mode and glean through some of the data I'm receiving by email.

"""EDIT TO ADD"""
It appears that I did not follow up completely on the prediction by Jim. The full statement was that a window between March 19th through the 26th were the ones to be especially vigilant on. I apologize again as I thought I had done all my homework prior to the posting of this thread, sorry, I had a human moment.. I have also had this apology bumped to the front page and the title reworded.. again sorry


Below is the video where Jim Berkland explains the Seismic Order for this window

Here is an announcement I just got for a show our friend Angela Joiner has with Jim Berkland.

Thursday, March 17 · 7:30pm - 9:00pm
www.inceptionradionetwork.com

Geologist Jim Berkland and former Japan resident Hiromi Sharp will join Angelia on Thursday night's The Joiner Report to discuss the tragedies in Japan. Berkland has made a new prediction of a West Coast earthquake around March 19-26. Japan suffered the biggest earthquake since records were begun 140 years ago. The 8.9 magnitude earthquake has been upgraded to a 9.0. It struck the northeast coast on March 11, generating a 33-foot tsunami that swept away everything in its path and killed an estimated 10,000 people. Countless numbers of farm animals and wildlife were also destroyed. It decimated much of Sendai City. To add to all of nature’s devastation, a volcano erupted in southwest Japan, sending hundreds fleeing from falling ash. Tsunamis have spread through the Pacific Ocean to Hawaii and California. The present disaster adding to the country’s woes is man made, as there is now a race against time in averting a nuclear meltdown as radiation levels surge outside two nuclear plants. The event has created global economic chaos as all three major stock indexes slumping Wednesday. Berkland, a noted geologist, recently appeared on Fox News to discuss the planet’s disaster after disaster and has years of in-depth study to predict these happenings at a high percentage success rate. His "Ring of Fire" Quakes pictured. (www.youtube.com...) He has worked as a geologist since 1958 with the U.S Geological Survey, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and Department of Interior. After receiving his doctorate, he taught at the Appalachian State University in North Carolina and was the first County Geologist in Santa Clara County in California. After retirement, Berkland began to study the common factors that occur prior to a natural disaster such as tidal forces associated with the sun-moon alignment as well as other natural phenomena. He began making predictions based on his studies and has had an 80% success rate. Hiromi Sharp presently lives in Los Angeles. She was born in Hawaii and resided in Japan for 20 years. As with many of the culture in the United States, she still has ties in Japan with 12 cousins. There is constant contact with her relatives about their safety. None of the extended family lives near the reactors; howevr there is still the threat. She will discuss some of the trials the country is experiencing and steps being taken for its citizens’ safety. Tune in to The Joiner Report, Thursday evening, 7:30 p.m.-9:00 p.m. CST (8:30-10:00 EST) at www.inceptionradionetwork.com. It will be an informative broadcast on the happenings on our planet. The virtual chat room will be open for questions and discussions.

We might want more detail and information that would afford us.

ZG

We're in this seismic window now, as its two evenings before the full moon, and there is a leeway of several days on each side of this.

reply to post by ZeroGhost


I really had to stop reading your post. It seems to me all you are doing is trying to use "big words" in a an effort to show people some sort of intellect that you think others will think is some sort of higher thinking and therefore think highly of you. Sorry. Not that person. Please. No fancy words. This isn't a writing exercise. It's a simple reply.

Can you please articulate the parameters such real confirm-able "proof" would entail?

WHAT?! Stop looking in the dictionary before replying to threads.
You failed to read my post and failed to see that I in fact did say what type of proof, or example if you want, to his predictions. Did he draw something ? Did he write it down previous to the events ? Did he record them via audio or video prior to ?

Does that articulate the parameters such real confirm-able "proof" would entail?

I'd like to add that me and mom have very bad headaches today. Don't know if this has any correlation, but maybe . Just wanted to contribute.

Originally posted by frozenspark
The only prediction that came true here on ATS was some dude saying he had a dream about Japan having an earthquake. No specific date or details were given.

Well, Japan is in the area that has earthquakes often, and its a waiting game before a big one strikes. With so many horrible "predictions" on this website, it is no wonder that someone's ambiguous, half-assed "prediction" came true.

I can say I have a dream that U.S. will have an earthquake.. sometime in the future. Eventually it will happen, and if it happens soon I will be heralded as some kind of prophet.


Many ATS users are really sad.

edit on 17-3-2011 by frozenspark because: (no reason given)

this is what i've been saying all this time, of course there's proof of a big earthquake, we are on the San Andreas fault and i already know we're gonnna have a big killer one, but no one knows exactly when, seems all these people "predicting" are doing it just because they're attention whores and because it's edgy now. what happened with the pole shift on march 15th? what happened with the solar flare? nothing happened, if something happens and im alive i will eat my pants.

reply to post by SMR



It's not just you. It is the emerging self hatred and distrust the controllers want us to have so we will destroy each other and save them the trouble.

You asked for "proof" but did not define such.

What you said (or insinuated) was that unless they prove to you somehow they were being honest, or were correctly evaluating themselves or they were not to be trusted. How mean spirited is that!

Let's trust first from now on. Trolls and creeps, disinfo posts reveal themselves soon enough. You can bet on that. Lots of smartys here.

Sorry I ranted on you, I am just concerned we are turning on the best thing the human race has working for it and all the power to determine our progressed future. You might know who that is. First line of Americas Declaration of Independence.

'We the People".

Count yourself as one and love your neighbor, and I will promise to do the same.

There are very talented and intuitive people here with very valuable information for us, and of course a very few scared sickos too. Please don't scare the gems off or insult their integrity because of your fear they are lying. They are gifts to us and might help us survive the future. In fact, we are all important to that positive end...or, begining.

You and I both need to practice "The Golden Rule."

"Do on to others as you would have them do on to you."

If I have any integrity myself, I should apologize. I do.

Let's not muck things up here. It's a good thread. Right?

B1,

ZG

(No big words were used in the dissemination of concepts in this post.) OOPS!

My dad is also a geologist, 50 years with the USGS in California. He's a seismologist, specifically the Cascades, but also does work nationally and internationally.

I sent him the link to the video and got this response - just adding it to the thread:

Let's start w/ the reason for predictions & forecasts: To protect people & property from harm from some natural phenomena. This means that forecasts & predictions must be made before the event & be creditable so people are willing to take some action to protect themselves. The scientific methods used to predict & forecast events must be repeatable for future events with some degree of precision.

Example: The weather forecast for Atlanta today is a 10% chance of rain of up to 0.1 inch. The elements of this forecast are an exact location (Atlanta), a narrow time window (daytime today), probability of occurrence (10%), & severity (0.1 in)., the forecast was made before the forecast event. With this forecast people can decide if they want to protect themselves by taking an umbrella when they go out.

On to EQ prediction of the World Series EQ. As I remember Jim Birkland's statement on the EQ was made a day or two before the EQ. Is this a tight enough window? Maybe. Depends.

Exact location: As I remember the prediction was specific to the Bay Area. The EQ's epicenter was 75 mi south of SF. Is this a close enough location? Depends on your point of view. Certainly not if you lived in Gilroy or Watsonville.

Probability of occurrence: I don't remember whether he did this or not.

Severity: Magnitude 3.5 to 6. He missed this on by a mile. The EQ was as I remember a M 6.9 or about 30 times more energy than his upper prediction limit of M6. What action would people have taken based on his magnitude limits? Well, for a 3.5 to 4.5 M quake no action would have been necessary. 3.5-4M EQs in CA are pretty much background & happen all the time. What's really important is not the magnitude, but severity of shaking. A M8 quake 500 km directly under you is one from which you will probably not feel any shaking at all. As deep EQs under Argentina show.

Predictability: Jim B. has forecast several more EQs without the predicted quakes taking place. As have several others. Their "success" rates are very low. Certainly not high enough to make decisions on not running trains, advising people to stay home, etc. The success rates are too low to be creditable.

His method of predicting EQs (alignment of the Sun & Moon basically) has also been subjected to statistical analysis for EQs around the world & large historic EQs. Not a high enough probability has been found to base creditable recommendations of what to do for the possible time window to stay safe. So far it's a bit like crying wolf too often.

Animal predictions: As yet no one has figured out what pre-EQ physical phenomena (if any) animals are sensitive to. Or how to sort out their sensitivity to changes in the weather from what ever's signals they respond to before EQs. It's hard to make a case for creditable animal prediction without knowing what is causing them to react. Then there is the problem of breeding ever more sensitive animals generation after generation so they could become better predictors.

reply to post by mosheh24


Been having it off and on for weeks that twitching will drive ya nuts. It can be linked to serotonin syndrome but I would have to be taking some meds for it to be that.

Hi, ihad very sleepless night the day japan was hit, didnt know anything till next evening.. that night Was cloudy and windy and i was gazing from the window in the early morning, thinking about earths emotions..

since few last days, i got troubles to get on paypal or email.. on diferent computers in two diferent cities..

just info from me,
take care

reply to post by ns9504


In any case, I would error on the side of caution, as opposed to ignoring out of hand.
Understanding geophysical phenomena teaches how uncertain all nature is. There are millions of relationships that can potentate or diffuse the possibilities or pathology of an event.

Severities and effects vary depending on the location of the quake, depth, placement, strength and where the wave hits and is reflected or enhanced by large rock deposits, absorbed by areas of liquefaction, and many other combinations of subsurface geology.

Each event is almost completely unique. Even from the same fault. Uncertainty is the only certainty, but in the absence of specific information, I will go with probabilities based on observational science Jim is incorporating in his study, including tidal, solar or effects observed in animals and people seemingly sensitive to low wavelengths or some other undiscovered indicators like gravitational or electromagnetic and piezoelectric emissions.

Jim has a sober predictive model that takes many things into account. He cannot know everything, and he would be the first to admit that, as he is a good scientist. The crust and composition as well as how plate tectonics actually works is still a mystery for the most part, but we are dealing with a mounting of probabilities. While there is no predictive 100% model, Jim has a method better than any other I have seen and will take that to the bank until I find better.

ZG

He makes some extremely valid points! I remember the San Francisco Quake and I recall the mention of his predictions. It was, of course shrugged off shortly thereafter as coincidence.

Just as the tsunami approached the coast, I pondered the thought of all the weight from the Pacific water causing our side of the plate to shift as well. His theory on tidal induction makes complete sense, and for safety purposes, I would recommend we be on alert as far up as Alaska.

Originally posted by Katie
reply to post by RisenAngel77

 

Do you think enough have listened yet? The ones in power your governments who is listening? They want to change the idea of marriage in America which is a BLESSED nation. WOE TO THEM.

IT IS honor thy father and mother. IT IS NOT honor thy father and father. IT IS NOT honor thy mother and mother.

Quite fitting I guess since that's the day of the "Super Moon".

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


Likewise in Michigan...that and fish-flies. Maybe a snowstorm or two. Thank God, though I hate fish-flies with a burning passion.

reply to post by JohnnyAnonymous


Found this interview of Jim Berkland at chemicalovercast's SKYWATCH youtube channel : www.youtube.com...

Found the link following ATS Annoymous posting at: www.politicalfailblog.com...

Great level of discourse on this site.

Another earthquake just hit in the Gulf of California near Ahome, Mexico. 4.5 this time. Starting on March 12 (day after Japan earthquake) there was a series of earthquakes in that same spot and the strongest was 5.5. They're all listed on this page and shown in red. As I said this may be a precursor to the predicted California earthquake on Saturday.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I took the liberty of posting the video that "1PlanetarySister" posted above (and thank you for that link). the interview isn't the best of sound quality, but you'll get the gest of it



Also Jim was being discussed on Examiner.com by Terry Hurlbut on his blog and the rundown is pretty much the following here Risk of another earthquake greatly increased and these four risk factors include:

1. The moon will be not only full, but at perigee. In fact this will be the closest perigee that the moon will have for the next five years. Experts have recently had to accept the role of tidal forces in the triggering of earthquakes. (See Maya Tolstoy et al., “Breathing of the Seafloor: Tidal Correlations of Seismicity at Axial Volcano,” Geology, Vol. 30, June 2002, pp. 503–506.)

2. The next day will be the vernal equinox, which produces the equinoctial tides, another stressor on account of the earth's axial inclination.

3. The California coast has recently seen a massive and unexplained fish kill. Such fish kills, and aberrant behavior of pets and livestock, have been remarkably accurate earthquake predictors (though not of 100 percent predictive value). In fact, twice the usual number of dog and cat owners reported their pets missing prior to the Loma Prieta event.

4. Finally, the Ring of Fire has already seen three other earthquakes: in Chile, New Zealand, and finally the Sendai event. In the belief that such events follow a pattern, Berkland believes that the San Andreas Fault might be due. This was the fault involved in the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906.

Oh well! I'm within walking distance to King Harbor - - hope I survive the weekend.

I know we are overdue for a large Earthquake - - but I have been hearing that for over 60 years. You can't stop living your life.

I have heard Jim Berkland on C2C. He seems very credible.

here is a map of the recent earthquakes in the Gulf of California

earthquake.usgs.gov...

The Pacific Plate runs right through the Gulf of California. The fault along that gulf is connected to the San Andreas fault. yes, something big is coming.