NASA buzzroom video! Comet Elenin -revised trajectory from .24 AU to .0004AU?! what?!

reply to post by Gliese581

My interpretation is that someone posted a nonsensical video in the buzzroom and it took a while for NASA to notice it. After realizing that people would do that sort of thing NASA has reconsidered just allowing anyone to post anything they want.

Good idea since people obviously believed that the video came from NASA because it was on a NASA website.

So, just to simplify....if the OP was correct in that Elenin's trajectory was revised to .0004AU, would that put Elenin closer to earth than it was originally supposed to be?

I thought Elenin was suppossed to be 4x the size of Jupiter? So this isn't correct now?

reply to post by Phage


The Buzzrom showed any photos or videos posted on Twitter with the hashtag #NASA. And you're probably right that they're rethinking how they decide what user-created videos to display.

Originally posted by ConcreteAngel1
So, just to simplify....if the OP was correct in that Elenin's trajectory was revised to .0004AU, would that put Elenin closer to earth than it was originally supposed to be?

I thought Elenin was suppossed to be 4x the size of Jupiter? So this isn't correct now?

Elenin will come within about .233 AU of Earth. Elenin's nucleus is probably in the area of 4km across, must smaller than Jupiter, much smaller than the Earth, and much smaller than the moon.

reply to post by nataylor


Not saying your wrong, but is this confirmed and by who?

Originally posted by ConcreteAngel1
reply to post by nataylor

 

Not saying your wrong, but is this confirmed and by who?

Well, the orbit is reported by the JPL Small-Body Database, based on 793 observations over 105 days. You can find the observations used at the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center and try fitting your own orbit, if you want to.

The size of the nucleus is estimated by the discoverer, Leonid Elenin. Based on the comet's distance and current coma size, his estimate is reasonable compared to other known comets.

You know that Planet X Movie coming out in May called "Melancholia"...Wouldn't it be wild if the kid's name in the movie was "Leo"? ...Oh wait, it is... Check it out for yourself. What do you think of this? A "Leo" discovers the killer asteroid in the movie Deep Impact. Another Leo discovers comet Elenin. There is a kid named Leo in this new planet X movie. Comet Elenin is also known as "X1". Comet Elenin will be approaching us from the constellation Leo. The Sphinx which has the body of a Lion (Leo) stares off into the night sky waiting for something to return....

From Graham Hancock: -"we have demonstrated with a substantial body of evidence that the pattern of stars that is "frozen" on the ground at Giza in the form of the three pyramids and the Sphinx represents the disposition of the constellations of Orion and Leo as they looked at the moment of sunrise on the spring equinox during the astronomical "Age of Leo" (i.e., the epoch in which the Sun was "housed" by Leo on the spring equinox.) Like all precessional ages this was a 2,160-year period. It is generally calculated to have fallen between the Gregorian calendar dates of 10,970 and 8810 BC. (op. cit., p.189)"

Ok follow me here.... The comet Elenin is supposed to have an orbital period of 11,830 years. (According to Wikipedia). That would put its last appearance on earth roughly in the vicinity of time when the Sphinx was said to have been built. Of course we can't be sure of the exact date of either, but they are close.

A lot to think about.... One more coincedence... The release date for the movie Melancholia is May 26th. "Comet" Elenin will be closest to earth on September 26th.

I have posted this before on another Elenin thread (there are so many of them it is hard to keep up, lol).

here is the link to Leonid Elenin's website, with lots of actual facts on the comet he discovered, and I think I'd rather believe him than a lot of the scare-mongers.

spaceobs.org...

reply to post by Hellhound604


He might be using a moniker and is actually not the "him" you think he is.

Originally posted by hereitcomesskippy
reply to post by Hellhound604

 

He might be using a moniker and is actually not the "him" you think he is.

maybe, but I think us amateur astronomers who are interested in the same fields, sort of are aware who is doing what, lol ........

Hello folks, i am a Dutch data analyst and i'm not a guy who get kicks from trolling or making weird statements.
What about this comet, if it really is just a "comet"?
I collected data from events occurring whenever there was an alignment between EleNin, the Earth and the Sun.
I also checked for astronomical proof by examining space observations made by world-telescopes.
Several issues kept me awake here.

The facts are:
- On 27/02/2010 Chile quake 8.8 -> EleNin, Earth and the Sun were in alignment.
This caused a shift of the earth axis.
- On 11/03/2011 Japan - Undersea quake 8.9 -> Tsunami and an increasing amount of quakes along “THE RING OF FIRE”.
Since the 8.9 quake 11th of march Japan has an average of 8 quakes with a magnitude of > 4 each day.
Both events were predicted correctly only by calculating the alignment of the EleNin with Sun and Earth.
Too bad a location was not given.
- The numerous deaths of birds and fish can (and are most likely) be caused by magnetic field disruption (navigation).
- How is it that a “Comet” with only a 3 mile diameter can have such an influence on Earth’s magnetic fields just by coming in alignment with the Earth and the Sun?
In my opinion it can't but this has happened 2 times already.
- On the space pictures taken you can see that the “comet” is accompanied by several other astronomical bodies.
- FEMA is stocking major amounts of freeze dried food (over 1 billion dollars’ worth). Why is that?
- On ssd.jpl.nasa.gov... is an orbit viewer where you can monitor the path of the comet. Only the 2 satellites STEREO A and B are not on the viewer any more.

Stereo B is scheduled to check out Elenin as stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov... states.
* Jul 25 Behind: Close approach by comet Elenin

There is/was a remark from NASA buzzroom:
“... these are my calculations, but I’ve revised the 0.24AU’s down to
0.0004617 AU’s on 21.42pm 16th Oct 2011 (pretty god dam close!)”

These were the adjustments on base of new calculations made by Russian scientists.

if it's accurate the closest distance will be 37.182 miles.
The distance between the moon and the Earth varies from around 356400 km to 406700 km at the extreme perigees (closest) and apogees (farthest). So this might well be the biggest full “moon” we will ever see.
The adjustment was explained on the site ( buzzroom.nasa.gov...), but this site is undergoing long-term “maintenance” now?

The next alignment will be on September 26 2011 so make sure you're not on a Fault-line area from the 25th till the 28th of September.

reply to post by NeoCharm


Are you implying that you "discovered" all this by yourself?

The facts are:
- On 27/02/2010 Chile quake 8.8 -> EleNin, Earth and the Sun were in alignment.
This caused a shift of the earth axis.
- On 11/03/2011 Japan - Undersea quake 8.9 -> Tsunami and an increasing amount of quakes along “THE RING OF FIRE”.
Both events were predicted correctly only by calculating the alignment of the EleNin with Sun and Earth.
Too bad a location was not given.

These quakes were not "predicted." There is a one in three chance that an earthquake of 6.0 or greater will occur on a given day. By predicting a five day "window," the odds were basically certain that an earthquake large enough to be called "major" would happen on the "ring of fire," which is where most earthquakes occur.

- The numerous deaths of birds and fish can (and are most likely) be caused by magnetic field disruption (navigation).

In such a localized way? Wouldn't all the birds and fish all over the planet be affected at the same time?

- How is it that a “Comet” with only a 3 mile diameter can have such an influence on Earth’s magnetic fields just by coming in alignment with the Earth and the Sun?

Correct; the comet is having no effect on the Earth's geomagnetic field. If it were, there would be severe disruption in radio and television traffic.

In my opinion it can't but this has happened 2 times already.

"First thought, best thought."

- On the space pictures taken you can see that the “comet” is accompanied by several other astronomical bodies.

Those "astronomical bodies" are distant stars, drawn out by the time lapse exposure. (To put it as simply as possible.)

- FEMA is stocking major amounts of freeze dried food (over 1 billion dollars’ worth). Why is that?

It's their job, and there are thousands of tornado victims across the American South who are very grateful they are doing their job well, for once.

- On ssd.jpl.nasa.gov... is an orbit viewer where you can monitor the path of the comet. Only the 2 satellites STEREO A and B are not on the viewer any more.

Why should they be, they're satellites, not planetoids.

Stereo B is scheduled to check out Elenin as stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov... states.
* Jul 25 Behind: Close approach by comet Elenin

Leonid Elenin has been lobbying for NASA to observe the comet with the STEREO array, but I'm not sure if NASA has agreed to retask them. They will probably catch a glimpse of it as it loops around the Sun anyway.

There is/was a remark from NASA buzzroom:
“... these are my calculations, but I’ve revised the 0.24AU’s down to
0.0004617 AU’s on 21.42pm 16th Oct 2011 (pretty god dam close!)”

These were the adjustments on base of new calculations made by Russian scientists.

if it's accurate the closest distance will be 37.182 miles.
The distance between the moon and the Earth varies from around 356400 km to 406700 km at the extreme perigees (closest) and apogees (farthest). So this might well be the biggest full “moon” we will ever see.
The adjustment was explained on the site ( buzzroom.nasa.gov...), but this site is undergoing long-term “maintenance” now?

The information is not accurate, it was a hoax video that wound up on NASA Buzz because it was tagged with "NASA." NASA Buzz is, or rather was, a "bot" that scanned the Web and imported any video tagged "NASA." You can read all the embarrassing details here.

The next alignment will be on September 26 2011 so make sure you're not on a Fault-line area from the 25th till the 28th of September.

Because I can guarantee that there will be a 6.00 earthquake, as happens every three days or so.

reply to post by NeoCharm


Relax, guys; on May 5, a new ATS thread was started; NASA has made the formal announcement. The buzzroom leak was approximately correct. Apparently, and I'm just speculating, they wanted to eliminate any possibility of a collision with Earth or the moon before going public.

So the right questions, now, are:

Was NASA's decision to delay the announcement wise?
Did it hurt their credibility?
Did it prevent panic?
Would world-wide stock trading have been affected by .1% probability of a comet impact a few months away?
Did anyone with inside info at NASA trade short?
Exactly what did NASA know, and when did they know it?
Who made the decision to delay the announcement?
Should there be an Congressional investigation?

reply to post by DJW001

These quakes were not "predicted." There is a one in three chance that an earthquake of 6.0 or greater will occur on a given day.

There is proof of that "prediction", even on youtube.
The fact that it was a major quake (larger than 8.0) made this prediction even more reliable.

The 6.0 that would occur any given day (on a 1 to 3 chance) is BS.
I have been monitoring the USGS since the beginning of april and the only >6.x quakes which occurred were a 6.1 and a 7,4 both in Japan. Both registered as an aftershock.
Over the rest of the Earth no quake passed 5.8.

In such a localized way? Wouldn't all the birds and fish all over the planet be affected at the same time?

Yes, in a localised way.
The magnetic field is not the same all around the Earth. (check the link)
Birds and Fish die

It's their job, and there are thousands of tornado victims across the American South who are very grateful they are doing their job well, for once.

Weird that victims of those disasters are complaining FEMA does not do anything to help them except giving loans which have to be payed back as a Gov. loan. The freeze dried food is not being touched (yet).

Why should they be, they're satellites, not planetoids.

Then why were they there in the first place. Let's wait on the pictures from July 25th.

Because I can guarantee that there will be a 6.00 earthquake, as happens every three days or so.

If i could put money on that you would have been broke.
Even in these days with increasing seismic activity a 6.0 is still rare. (6.1 and a 7.4 in a month and both in Japan)

Believe me when i say, the alignment does have an effect on us. Not with a >6.x but >8 on the Richter scale.
If you live in the US, don't be near the west coast or the New Madrid fault line in the last week of September.

reply to post by NeoCharm

There is proof of that "prediction", even on youtube.
The fact that it was a major quake (larger than 8.0) made this prediction even more reliable.

The 6.0 that would occur any given day (on a 1 to 3 chance) is BS.
I have been monitoring the USGS since the beginning of april and the only >6.x quakes which occurred were a 6.1 and a 7,4 both in Japan. Both registered as an aftershock.
Over the rest of the Earth no quake passed 5.8.

9nania also "predicted" a quake on the 31st of March that never happened. A 50% track record is little better than chance. Had she specified an 8+ quake in Japan on a specific date it would have been impressive; as it is, it is clearly just coincidence that there was such a large quake during her five day window. She would no doubt have claimed any 6+ earthquake anywhere on Earth as a "hit."

As for the statistical probability of a 6+ earthquake occurring on a given day:

Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes

Magnitude Average Annually
8 and higher 1 ¹
7 - 7.9 15 ¹
6 - 6.9 134 ²
5 - 5.9 1319 ²
4 - 4.9 13,000
(estimated)
3 - 3.9 130,000
(estimated)
2 - 2.9 1,300,000
(estimated)
¹ Based on observations since 1900.

USGS

You claim to be a data analyst; you work out the odds. Also, as a data analyst, you must be aware that a sampling of data from the single month of April is too small to be significant. Here is some more data for you to work with:

Magnitude 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
8.0 to 9.9 1 1 0 1 2 1 2 4 0 1 1 1
7.0 to 7.9 14 15 13 14 14 10 9 14 12 16 21 8
6.0 to 6.9 146 121 127 140 141 140 142 178 168 144 151 114

USGS

Since you enjoy playing with the JPL Small Body Database, you might want to find Elenin "alignments" for all these:
Significant Earthquakes of the World

Originally posted by NeoCharm

If i could put money on that you would have been broke.
Even in these days with increasing seismic activity a 6.0 is still rare. (6.1 and a 7.4 in a month and both in Japan)

There have been 123 earthquakes of 6.0 and greater this year. That is an average of slightly less than 1 per day. The longest period without such an earthquake was 6 days. I wouldn't call them rare.
earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Phractal Phil


I confused Asteroid 2005 YU55 with EleninC 2010 X1. So everything I wrote in the above post is nonsense.

How come I can't edit or delete that post?

Oldcorp Has useful info, in video! If he will just post it.


Deebo

Originally posted by NeoCharm- How is it that a “Comet” with only a 3 mile diameter can have such an influence on Earth’s magnetic fields just by coming in alignment with the Earth and the Sun?
In my opinion it can't

I think this is really the only correct thing out of all the data you attempted to correlate.

Of course, as a data analyst by profession I'm sure you're intimately aware of how any 2 unrelated things can be made to look associated if one looks hard enough...especially if it's what the analyzer wants to find.