reply to post by SecretsUnfold
I partially agree with what you are saying SecretsUnfold. I agree that the Western media has been derelict in its duty to provide accurate coverage of
this event. And I have personally witnessed ridiculous displays of ignorance by so-called "experts" pulled in by the Western media to cover this
I've also seen Western media up to 24 hours out-of-date because the news from 24 hours ago was more sensational than the news of the day.
Moreover, I will be totally surprised if criminal charges are not brought against individuals who have perpetrated hoaxes on some alternative media
sites. Mostly I think its just general ignorance, but there have been some deliberate hoaxes perpetrated around the web, for who knows what reason.
But when I look at the Japanese media and watch these press conferences I definitely don't go away with the feeling that the Japanese government is
providing completely accurate information. In fact, I've observed some very stage managed performances and deliberate evasion of important questions
from journalists. As much as they do need to prevent mass panic, and they also can only speak to their own portfolios, these facts alone don't account
for the radical supression of the truth that we seem to be seeing.
I don't personally believe there is any risk whatsoever to Americans in the US. There are three primary reasons for this:
* Chernobyl was a far worse explosion and fire than has happened or can happen in Japan. At the time of Chernobyl there was not a significant effect
on the health of people in the US (people in Europe were affected).
* The US has deliberately detonated over 1000 nuclear weapons since they were invented. Most of them have been detonated in tests *in the US*. It
might be argued that this testing has affected the health of people in the US (radiation levels are twice the world average in the US I believe,
though I don't know if the atomic testing contributes to this). But if hundreds of nuclear weapons explosions in the US, including above ground tests,
didn't radically affect the health of US citizens, then a little fire or hydrogen explosion all the way over the pacific in Japan is certainly not
* We already know the effect of a *nuclear explosion* (much worse than a mere detonation) in Japan on the health of citizens of the US. Consider
Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There we have a situation where nuclear fallout really occurred at a significant level and was ejected right up into the
atmosphere. The tiny (in comparison) problems at these reactors pale into insignificance. Remember that something like 20,000 people *at least* died
of radiation sickness due to exposure to radiation and fallout in Japan because of these events. So far no one has died from radiation sickness in the
current crisis (a couple of people have died from the explosions on site). Yet what was the effect of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the health of US
Having said all that, I simply don't understand what is going on at the Japanese reactors at present. Pissing water at them is simply going to have
very little effect. I don't claim these calculations are correct, but from my limited understanding here's what I get:
The spent fuel pools require about 1500 tonnes of water to cover the fuel rods. We must assume that they are nearly empty at least for one of the
The helicopters delivered about 7 tonnes of water each, most of which missed the reactor (some of the evaporation from elsewhere on the building may
help, but frankly that's wishful thinking). Let's be generous and suppose that 15 tonnes of water actually made it to the pools.
There were what, 11 fire trucks, each spraying 5 tonnes? (Figures someone). They can be accurately aimed from 30 feet (?). Let's be generous and
suppose 50 tonnes of water.
Another problem. At 100 feet the radiation level was what? 80 mS? It falls off as the inverse square of the distance, so at 30 feet its what? 800 mS?
Well above the acceptable level. So how are they going to get close enough to accurately aim this water again?
We also know the fuel is probably emitting about 1MW of power. That's 3.6 GJoules of energy over an hour. It takes about 2.6 MJoules of energy to
evaporate 1kg of water. So every hour, a tonne of water is evaporating.
So every day, half the water they are spraying is evaporating again. So they're getting maybe 25 tonnes of filling every day. Time to refill the pool?
Now, I'm being fast and loose with the figures here. There's also heat being carted away by conduction and then radiation from the building into the
very cold atmosphere in Japan at the moment, and many other factors. But even so, in my opinion, this pissing into the wind is nothing more than a
desperate attempt to do something, anything, or even the only thing they can do.
The only chance they have, in my opinion is to restore power to the plants and to repair the damage to the failed water recirculation system at *all*
of the reactors.
So the idea was they were putting in a Hard Wire (presumably a transmission line) to the plant from the grid elsewhere to restore power. Now to repair
the reactors they've gotta get in there? How they gonna do that with the radiation so high?
So you tell me? Is everything under control here?
Now someone said that they have in fact restored power to the plant? See here's the thing. Either this is true, in which case CNN is responsibly not
reporting it for fear that panic will not ensue, or its false, in which case its disinformation, and we should look into the source of that
disinformation. So which is it? Sources please.
My guess/gut feeling is this is how it will play out. There will be a "massive" release of radiation from at least one of the reactors. The evacuation
zone will extended to 80-100km. The region within 10-20km of the reactors will become a radioactive wasteland for years, or people will live there
knowing the risks.
Eventually they'll try to pour sand and boric acid onto the reactors, but this will not happen tonight or tomorrow or probably any day this week.
The effect on the US in the worst case scenario: recession due to the world's third largest economy being pulled into a recession as a result of the
greater crisis. The radiation effect on health of US citizens? Zero.
Now I want to stress that despite the apparent "calculations" above, it's all based on faulty data, my completely inadequate computations which I did
not even check, and all the rest is *purely speculation*.
I'm posting it here because it is my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong. But even if I am not, there shouldn't be panic anywhere, including Japan. It is a
very serious situation, and I hope that I am in fact behind with updates and that they have indeed restored power and that things will not deteriorate
further. However, at least last night, when I last looked in detail, things didn't look that rosy.
edit on 17-3-2011 by XtraTL because: Fixed a
badly worded sentence
edit on 17-3-2011 by XtraTL because: Mispeeling