posted on Jul, 27 2004 @ 03:20 AM
Originally posted by cyberdude78
Also by amphibious landing Iran can hit Isreal easily. Plus Syria and Jordan seem to hate Isreal so don't be suprised to see the world colapse
around Isreal. Iran does have a respectible navy that can pass through the Suez Canal. Most likely Egypt will support Iran or stay neutral. Since
when did Isreal have the capabilities to nuke Iran.
The principal weapon of Naval Warfare the use of aircraft. The power in the air over the middle east is Israel. The Suez would be a death trap for the
Iranian navy. Furthermore, Israel had defeated Arab coalitions 4 or 5 times in the past 60 years, and the last time (lebanon) Egypt and Jordan decided
to sit out. The time before that, Israel shattered the Syrian army and encircled the Egyptian forces, and only the threat of Soviet intervention kept
them from exploiting open roads to Damascus and Cairo.
This time Israel has the added advantages of the Merkava IV and an American force bordering the two principal threats (Iran and Syria).
Israel -WILL- go to war with the Syria or Iran at the drop of a hat, and more likely than not, they will win. Fortunately for the arabs, Israel is
suffering from a type of Vietnam syndrome. Their last war was percieved as unjust and unnecessary, and resulted in a high level of civilian
casualties. Israeli public opinion duing the conflict in Lebanon was the salvation of all of Syria, and has probably served to make Israel a little
more timid in recent years. This will end abruptly if a threat to their nation is percieved (which it certainly is when they face the prospect of a
right-wing Muslim theocracy gaining nuclear weapons.)
The worst case scenario for this situation is something like this- Lebanon becomes a Christian puppet nation and becomes a major scene of fighting and
controversial allegations of genocide come up in the UN. Syria is badly beaten and suffers a revolution. Iraq demands the US leave and the US has
little choice but to do so. Perhaps a Iraq and Syria are united by pan-arabist revolutions. Jordan is less likely to participate, but if they do they
go the same route as Iraq and Syria. If they do not follow along they will have a very interesting relationship with the US and UN because they will
require support to resist annexation by the Iraq-Syria alliance, yet it will not be politically viable for America to support Jordan too actively,
which leaves Jordan to become a puppet of Saudi Arabia most likely. Egypt is just as unlikely to participate, but if they do, the worst case scenario
would be Israeli control of the Suez, resulting in potential conflict with the UN at a later date. Iran could give the US a bloody nose intiallly
(perhaps) but shortly thereafter would get to see "shock and awe". This would look a lot like Iraq, and it would ultimately fail. I would expect
heavy Russian support and influence to a very weak Iran at the end of American occupation. There is also a danger that NATO could be seriously
undermined, especially Turkey's membership, if Turkey refused to fight Iran on America's behalf, on the grounds that the war was initiated by
Israel. This could actually have the effect of marginalizing or entirely expelling the US from NATO.
So- the worst case scenario is US leaves NATO, Israel gets bigger and stronger, Russia gets stronger, Saudi Arabia gets stronger, and most other Arab
nations lose power. You end up looking at a potential European showdown in the middle east in the future, but nothing will come of it because
historically, nations with nukes dont fight eachother. That makes it an economic question, and increases the necessity that America (and Israel) get
off of fossil fuels before it ruins there economies.