Dodged a solar bullet.

Proton flux level comparisons of Bastille Day Event vs X2.2 on February 15th

Charts at NOAA's SEC site:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Here's the chart for the Bastille Day Event as noted by Phage:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6a0c05dcf138.gif[/atsimg]

Here's the chart for the recent X2.2 flare:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e38a5de266cd.gif[/atsimg]

Other factors include speed of discharge. The X2.2's CME was traveling from 500-600km/sec when it arrived and the Bastille Day Event clocked in at 1100 km/sec. See post on speed calculation significance here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

ACE Real Time Solar Wind Data page:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Now the live simulation of our earth magnetosphere seems to have gone dead...

www2.nict.go.jp...

the readings are flat (too flat to be actually real)

Any comments or ideas on this?

reply to post by turek

Note on front page of: www2.nict.go.jp...

All of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet.

Those visuals use ACE data and are designed more for laymen and the general public aka eye candy for the masses to ooo and aaah at.

Here's a more accurate chart of the same data:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Main page, as noted in my previous post:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by Regenmacher
reply to post by turek

 

Note on front page of: www2.nict.go.jp...

All of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet.

Those visuals use ACE data and are designed more for laymen and the general public aka eye candy for the masses to ooo and aaah at.

Here's a more accurate chart of the same data:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Main page, as noted in my previous post:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

edit on 19-2-2011 by Regenmacher because: (no reason given)

Thx for the links. Though I am still not sure why the readings went flat.. Never happened before.. Guess I will just aaaahh on that

Originally posted by turek
Thx for the links. Though I am still not sure why the readings went flat.. Never happened before.. Guess I will just aaaahh on that

edit on 19-2-2011 by turek because: (no reason given)

Second hand information is prone to more errors. Data is not flatlining from the ACE site, so the Japanese either be taking a nap or their graphical software is heavily rounding off the data.


As for never happened before, check the archived movies:
www2.nict.go.jp...

Great thread I know how scientific you are respect!

disappointing those hoping for an auroral display.

hmm disappointing indeed will you notify us when it does?

reply to post by Phage


Something is definetly up with the current events in our solar system. Really seems like some other space object is contracting the whole galaxy or something..

Way cool pics OP thanks

Originally posted by Regenmacher

All of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet.

Those visuals use ACE data and are designed more for laymen and the general public aka eye candy for the masses to ooo and aaah at.

Here's a more accurate chart of the same data:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

ACE does not appear do be functioning correctly, I may be wrong but since last night it seems to have gave off some data that doesn't match. I'm seeing if I can find more about it. If that's malfunctioning then any other system that relies on t would be too. From about this time last night the speed shot up and the bz and bt flatlined out. It's quite unusual.

reply to post by pazcat

Status is nominal. Proton density is extremely low. Magnetic field very stable.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by pazcat
ACE does not appear do be functioning correctly....

You should of been watching when solar minimum peaked in 2008. It was like watching grass grow.

Looks fine to me and relatively calm now.

There's more than just 6 hour graphs and they have ascii tables too.

It seems though that some of the readings have not matched up with the WIND satellite though.
On ACE with the bt field so static and elavated the bz should have more movement in it.
Or so I have been told.
pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov...

Originally posted by Phage
This burst of electromagnetic energy was produced by complex interactions between conflicting magnetic fields reaching across the region and between the individual sunspots within it.

Are these complex interactions predictable and/or normal? And what was different about these interactions compared to previous bursts?

Originally posted by pazcat
It seems though that some of the readings have not matched up with the WIND satellite though.
On ACE with the bt field so static and elavated the bz should have more movement in it.
Or so I have been told.
pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov...

That site uses data from the Themis STEREO spacecraft, not ACE.

Vastly different locations and orbits for both STEREO sats and the ACE sat.

But that is the point isn't it, if one is not working rigt you cross reference it with another system and check.

reply to post by cluckerspud

Normal...yes they happen all the time. That's why there are solar flares. It's sort of like a short circuit of the magnetic fields. The more separate fields in close proximity to each other the more likely it is to happen.
To give you an idea of what we're talking about, here's a representation of the large scale fields on the Sun right now.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8ada055a196e.jpg[/atsimg]


Predictable...the solar scientists are still trying to figure that part out.

reply to post by Blaine91555

Originally posted by thorfourwinds

Time is getting short.

Thoughts, anyone?

Greetings Earthlings, Assorted Guests and member Blaine91555:

Thank you for your time and consideration of the message.

While I can appreciate your hoity-toity attitude apparently brought on by the exhuberance of finally being set free by the truth contained in the message, I trust you are not merely toying with the messenger (which would make one suspect of your motivations). Are you admittedly here in this reality a poser/COINTELPRO blatherskite assigned to waste bandwidth and time?

Psychological Warfare From the Outside: The FBI and police used a myriad of other "dirty tricks" to undermine progressive movements. They planted false media stories and published bogus leaflets and other publications in the name of targeted groups. They forged correspondence, sent anonymous letters, and made anonymous telephone calls. They spread misinformation about meetings and events, set up pseudo movement groups run by government agents, and manipulated or strong-armed parents, employers, landlords, school officials and others to cause trouble for activists.

Please do not further waste any more time by attempting to shoot the messenger. So be it, because, as you noticed, "Time Is Short!" (If you have a differing opinion - wonderful! Prove your hypothesis or at least provide some sort of supporting evidence to back your play so the rest of us can see where you get your ideas. We welcome all positive input. As so aptly stated one of the most popular and vociferous advocate-for-the-truth OP's: "Truth isn't found, its realized!" - Human_Alien.

In general, governments routinely rely on hoaxes to sell their agendas to an otherwise reluctant public. Our government too uses hoaxes to create the illusion that We The People have no choice but the direction the government wishes us to go in.

Interesting to see the in your face, needless FEAR MONGERING in your response to Phage. How very UNscientific of you

At this precise moment in the spacetime continuum, the message is so important and timely that it must be presented in a bold, direct, and often aggressive way, but certainly not intentionally coming across as being confrontational. Again, please concentrate on the material, as the messenger is merely a conduit.


Two-dimensional analogy of space–time distortion. Matter changes the geometry of spacetime, this (curved) geometry being interpreted as gravity. White lines do not represent the curvature of space but instead represent the coordinate system imposed on the curved spacetime, which would be rectilinear in a flat spacetime.

Please do not get preoccupied in your interpretation of how the material was presented. Your interpretation of FEAR MONGERING is subjective, at best.

"monger---a person who attempts to stir up or spread something that is usually petty or discreditable —usually used in combination, as in alemonger"

How about "fishmonger" - sushi, anyone?

I do find the use of "Shock and Awe" by placing a picture of the very normal lightning above a Volcanic eruption...interesting.

Really? How interesting? In what way? And here I thought I was being somewhat creative by "the use of "Shock and Awe" by placing a picture of the very normal lightning above a Volcanic eruption..." (your words) photo as a metaphor for the grave danger of the catastrophic damage posed by electromagnetic radiation storms to the infrastructure, as I did not readily have a photo depicting such damage.


How about this one?



Communcations equipment is another story altogether and better understanding the nature of the electrodynamic coupling, how geospace responds to external and internal drivers, and how the coupled middle and upper atmosphere respond to external forcings and how they interact with each other just might give us a leg up on this.

My personal concern regards the equipment, much of it out-moded by lack of funds to update. I personally was in Bay St. Louis in Mississippi (Katrina) to assist in water rescue of our brothers who were almost drowned like rats when the storm surge completely wiped out the Command Center - which was elevated to survive such an event. Unfortunately, most of the communications equipment ended upside down in 30 feet of nasty water - over 1/2 mile inland from the landfall beachfront. A space-based EMP or similar electromagnetic radiation event might not cause the physical damage, but the cumulative effects would be catastrophic.

MONDAY, JULY 26, 2010
NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions

Since we know huge solar flares have affected the earth in the recent past, it is a fair assumption that one or more will affect us again sometime in the future.

This isn’t science fiction. Although no one knows when the next major solar flare will head in our direction.

The largest storm observed since the invention of the modern astronomy was in 1859 – now known as the Carrington Event.

Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.

"What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun," explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

Now we know that solar flares happen frequently, especially during solar sunspot maximum. Most betray their existence by releasing X-rays (recorded by X-ray telescopes in space) and radio noise (recorded by radio telescopes in space and on Earth). In Carrington's day, however, there were no X-ray satellites or radio telescopes. No one knew flares existed until that September morning when one super-flare produced enough light to rival the brightness of the sun itself.

Another tremendous flare lashed out at our planet in 1921.

Both of these events occurred before we developed an infrastructure highly dependent upon sensitive (and highly vulnerable) electronics.

Smaller, but disruptive solar storms have caused serious power outages and communications disruptions in recent decades.

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

...while talking about a totally unrelated, oft occurring event,...

tout au contraire, mon frere

The magnetosphere is that area of space, around a planet, that is controlled by the planet's magnetic field. The shape of the Earth's magnetosphere is the direct result of being blasted by solar wind. It prevents most of the particles from the Sun, carried in the solar wind, from hitting the Earth.

After more than two years of very low sunspot activity and hardly any flares, the sun is ramping up activity now.

The sun's activity ebbs and flows on a roughly 11-year cycle. It can range from very quiet to violent space storms that knock out power grids on Earth and disrupt radio and satellite communications. The last peak was in 2000, and scientists have in recent months figured the low point was occurring. Fresh sunspots during October suggest the corner has been turned.

"I think solar minimum is behind us," said David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. "Last month we counted five sunspot groups." he says.

Solar storms can cause colorful auroras, often seen in higher latitudes on Earth.

A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

Read more: www.foxnews.com...

When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

Preventive action, now you're talking. Tin foil hats available here.

...just for the sake of sending a chill up and down the spines of unsuspecting readers interesting. Even that was not enough and you opted to add another horror story to stir things up in the form of the potential for an Asteroid From Hell (exaggeration intentional).

Double OOPS! I had no idea of the delicate nature of your fellow ATS members. So, there are unsuspecting readers here on ATS that have made a conscious decision to deny ignorance by signing up, went to this thread and feel they got snookered? List please. Chill, dude! At least, I hope I got their attention. As far as the "Astroid from Hell," (your words, not mine), I'll cover that in another post, as I want to keep your attention while I seem to have it.

Those would be my thoughts. I think the fear mongering is out of control and I'm suspect of the motivations behind it. You asked?

What is your solution if I might ask. Should we relocate? Or is creating fear your only goal?

"Time is getting short", perhaps, but it's far more likely true that an extinction event is millions of years away. But lets not let facts interfere with all the fun of scaring people.

I respect your right to have an opinion.

In Peace & Light
tfw

Originally posted by pazcat
But that is the point isn't it, if one is not working rigt you cross reference it with another system and check.

LOL, No they won't have the same data. STEREO sats are off to the sides of the sun and ACE is between the Earth and the Sun.

You need to start reading and researching. All these questions can be answered with a little footwork on your part and I gave you links to get you started.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by cluckerspud

 

Normal...yes they happen all the time. That's why there are solar flares. It's sort of like a short circuit of the magnetic fields. The more separate fields in close proximity to each other the more likely it is to happen.
To give you an idea of what we're talking about, here's a representation of the large scale fields on the Sun right now.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8ada055a196e.jpg[/atsimg]


Predictable...the solar scientists are still trying to figure that part out.

edit on 2/19/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Thanks. A little more understood. I assume that these close proximity reactions become more the norm when the cycle of the sun peaks.

reply to post by Regenmacher

You're correct that WIND is in a different solar environment than ACE but it is not involved with the STEREO spacecraft.

Current (approx) ACE location (GSE, XYZ)
1548422.7 33621.3 -39467.0

Current WIND location
1244837.1 59837.2 -127119.9

WISE is closer to Earth, further below the ecliptic, and somewhat to the "right" compared to ACE.

reply to post by Phage



Did you read this article ?University colorado

Human dependence on technology makes society more susceptible to the effects of space weather," Baker said. "But scientists and engineers have made great strides in recent decades regarding this phenomenon. "We understand much more about what is happening and can build more robust systems to withstand the effects," Baker said. "It will be interesting to see how well our technological systems will withstand the rigors of space weather as the sun gets back to higher activity levels."

What do they mean by our technological systems?