Dodged a solar bullet.

Originally posted by backinblack
reply to post by Blaine91555

 

I think the fear mongering is out of control and I'm suspect of the motivations behind it. You asked?

I agree fear mongering is out of control....
But the OP appears to be well respected and IMO the thread title promotes that fear mongering..

Dodged a solar bullet.infers we were lucky this time..But what about next time???

That was not a response to Phage? Please read it again. The post by Phage was accurate and informative.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by On the level

 

Though this solar cycle is shaping up to be less active than average numerically (fewer sunspots), solar scientists have no way of even guessing at the intensity of upcoming activity. We do know that very powerful incidents are rare but that just means it takes more rolls of the dice to come up snake eyes.

edit on 2/18/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

I was looking into this the other day and it looks like the current predictions from NASA are for a peak daily sunspot number about half (40-80) of the peak of cycle 23 (80-150). It's a bit early to tell but so far we look to be below the prediction so they may have to revise down again further.

Of course, X-class flares can essentially happen at any time. As you say, it's just a statistical numbers game. Then again, we had satellites and power distribution systems last time there were record solar flares, so chances are we'll survive just fine.

One bullet down, lets hope the rest of the gatling gun is like it.

Wow, this information is awesome. Tell it as it really is, what can happen and why.

reply to post by Phage


Excellent Thread! Thanks for sharing with ATS.

Good to see your still alive and kicking!

S&F

reply to post by Phage


No i would visualize it as streams of Tourque being applied across the entire sheild which then exerts force on the mass within.
A continious sinew from sun to planet i know it is instant but hey time is relative

reply to post by csulli456


I hope it goes a bit further southward... it's my friend's birthday and she deserves a light show.

reply to post by Phage


Thanks for the informative post--as always with a calm, reasoned and direct approach. Hope to see more of you as we approach the solar maximum.

Glad to see that you are back Phage. Informative as always.

Its crazy how all the prophecies are coming true this year is anyone else seeing this?

Geez 5 pages of " Great work Phage, how did we manage without you! And then suddenly everyone starts adding technical data that coresponds in some way,trying to look smart.(Granted many of you are)

No offense to Phage, but we were all doing fine with or without him for that last few months. We all had to figure things out for ourselves and had a little more fun in the process.

I really can not stand how everyone puts so much stock in one person. This never ends well.

BTW: Welcome back Phage!

Originally posted by v1rtu0s0
Can't wait to see the great pictures of the auroa burealis.

Greetings Earthlings, Assorted Visitors and member v1rtu0s0:

While we gather any "new" photos that become available of last night's Aurora Borealis, perhaps these "old ones" will suffice as eye candy for the time being. BTW, since I can safely postulate that, like snowflakes, no two Aurora Borealis photographs will be identical, I could attempt to snow you with the idea that these are "fresh-picked" from last night. Or not.

Now there's something to attempt to debunk Hoaxkiller1, et al: time-shifting Aurora Borealis-fresh or fowl? Enjoy.



MORE DAWN OF THE NORTH





64º N LATITUDE

I hope that this was as good for you as it was for me.
In Peace & Light
tfw


GOT BARRICADE?

The sun appeared brighter than usual today for where I am, (Southern Ontario) and I could actually open up the doors in the shop and not have to turn on the heater lol. cellphone signal has been maybe 2-3 bars compared to 5 usual. xbox live also has been terrible haha.

Funny, I posted an official document from the DHS on Fragile Earth regarding this very event and nobody could be bothered to read it or flag it or star it, but after the fact, it's suddenly a big deal.

Originally posted by SunnyDee
Geez 5 pages of " Great work Phage, how did we manage without you! And then suddenly everyone starts adding technical data that coresponds in some way,trying to look smart.(Granted many of you are)
No offense to Phage, but we were all doing fine with or without him for that last few months. We all had to figure things out for ourselves and had a little more fun in the process.
I really can not stand how everyone puts so much stock in one person. This never ends well.
BTW: Welcome back Phage!

Yes, this recent thread springs to mind..
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Though the OP has no control over backslapping,off topic one liners..

reply to post by General.Lee


I'll you a star posthumously. Lots of people have talked about this event over the last few days. Good for you too.

I think this thread falls under the proof by verbosity fallacy.

I have no idea what the OP is talking about, but it seems professional, Therefore I will give him a flag and a star and assume that all of this is true .

Hey Phage!

Nice to see you are still alive and kicking.

Apparently the Aurora Borealis will be visible from England this year. If not now then later. More are expected as the year progresses.

-m0r

reply to post by Eurisko2012


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Haha Thanks,its Ron from "Parks and Recreation". Yea but even with power shut down, there are savy individuals how have some sort of backup maybe (ahem ) who will still have some electrical power to do some work.

I guess what you are getting at is if the ISP has no electrical power then there is no internet, way way easier than the internet kill switch.
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reply to post by m0r1arty


Aurora's are visible in the UK more often than most people realise, especially in northern Scotland.
Still they can be an extremely difficult thing to spot even when the conditions are right, mainly because of all the light pollution, clouds and a full moon. Things tend to work against seeing auroras in the UK.
Still if you have access to a good dark site and can get a good prediction the possibility of seeing one is increased.
If you live above 54N° your chances are better but you still need at least a KP6 auroroa, a KP7 will likely be visible on the horizon down as far as 51N°.