Earthquake Swarm in Arkansas Intensifies. Memphis, Tennessee could be epicenter for the next big one

Evolution of risk.

When you search and find news reports issued by geologists, you'll notice that the story changes. The early stories downplay the risk, and any danger is pure theoretical. Now the facts reflect a fault which is longer and the has increased.

thecabin.net...

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articles.cnn.com...:US

ozarksfirst.com...

www.arkansasonline.com...

www.youtube.com...=298

The video deals with two earthquakes. One along the west coast. The other is the New Madrid. And the new faults.

Fracking Arkansas.
A Gas Boom in Earthquake County, USA

Just curious,

Any activity in the past hour or so? My dad said that his house just shook. He's in Bartlett (North Eastern Memphis)

reply to post by ButterCookie


Didn't have any shaking here that I noticed. Here is the Shelby Forest helicorder that I follow for our area, nothing showed up at that time:

www.ceri.memphis.edu...

There was a 6.1 in Japan earlier today though, maybe that had something to do with it.

just felt a little thump here.. anyone else feel it?

Originally posted by Robin Marks
I'm sorry I can't write much at the moment. It's just that I'm very angry and frustrated. My sole ray of light is that Susan may help the media understand the danger. I've already reached my conculsion and I don't like the result.

As for the hazard map just provided by Redcloak- no offence to Redcloak- I find it ridiculous.

The real hazard areas extend from Memphis, down through the newly discovered fault near Marianna, and southwestard toward Guy/Greenbrier.

An easier way to understand the danger Zone. It's anywhere in the Mississippi basin from Illinois southward.
Just like in 1811/1812, the earthquakes start in Arkansas and then travelled northward.

I'm sorry,


I forgot to say it's been quiet in Arkansas over the last day or so. But last night there was a quake about 2.8M. It's not listed yet.

edit on 27-3-2011 by Robin Marks because: (no reason given)

In my personal opinion it is a subduction zone. The danger is anywhere from the middle of Louisiana all the way to the Hudson Bay. I agree with Jack Reed. There is clear evidence of volcanoes and also there must be a plate boundary area because otherwise New Madrid and Wabash make no sense.

I believe it is a subduction zone and that is why the rock strata and sediment layers show such catastrophic earthquakes in the region. The map is just interesting to put in the thread. But the threat is much greater.

There has got to be a plate in that region.

Originally posted by SusanFrey
reply to post by Red Cloak

 

That map isn't accurate from what has been going on here. When you feel like your seasick from riding a boat all the time and our area isn't even in it. I don't think who ever did that has the whole picture and I think the danger is far greater than that map shows.

I will give you a heads up. The USGS has been at the Buffalo River for the past couple months doing a lot of monitoring and "investigating". So the likely area where slippage might occur is in that region.

reply to post by Red Cloak


Do you know where they have been working at on the Buffalo?

reply to post by SusanFrey


Yes. It's near some resort there where they are staying at. I forgot the name of it. I will try to find out again. They have been trying to keep it a secret.

reply to post by Red Cloak


OK Thank you

This might also be of interest. Now, personally I have done estimates and I get something like 9.6 magnitude for the 2-7-1812 quake and 9+ for all the other quakes then. Where they estimate 8.0-8.8 for the quakes back then in the source below in the link, with the most commonly cited historical estimate for the old quakes actually being 8.0-8.9 (the new USGS estimates are just misinfo and disinfo). I believe 9.6 is the actual figure for the biggest quake, but nonetheless.... This source is a good way to understand the main problem of New Madrid. What is most important is the shaking intensity, the Mercalli Scale.

Note the Roman numerals in the link below. I have been looking for a good source like this online that had the intensity scales of great historical earthquakes in terms of damage. This shows it. The Roman numerals are for the Mercalli Scale of intensity. This is not the energy release estimation (which keep in mind is speculative for quakes back then and not actually measured), but the intensity of the shaking.

The highest you can go to on the intensity scale is 12. Just so everyone understands what this means:


Richter Magnitude - Typical Maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity:

1.0 - 3.0 - I
3.0 - 3.9 - II - III
4.0 - 4.9 - IV - V
5.0 - 5.9 - VI - VII
6.0 - 6.9 - VII - IX
7.0+ - VIII or higher


Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale:

I. Instrumental - Not felt by many people unless in favorable conditions.

II. Weak - Felt only by a few people at best, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing.

III. Slight - Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Many do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.

IV. Moderate - Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by few people during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rock noticeably. Dishes and windows rattle alarmingly.

V. Rather Strong - Felt outside by most, may not be felt by some outside in non-favourable conditions. Dishes and windows may break and large bells will ring. Vibrations like large train passing close to house.

VI. Strong - Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken; books fall off shelves; some heavy furniture moved or overturned; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Very Strong - Difficult to stand; furniture broken; damage negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by people driving motor cars.

VIII. Destructive - Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture moved.

IX. Violent - General panic; damage considerable in specially designed structures, well designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.

X. Intense - Some well built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundation. Rails bent.

XI. Extreme - Few, if any masonry structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly.

XII. Cataclysmic - Total destruction - Everything is destroyed. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock move position. Landscape altered, or leveled by several meters. In some cases, even the routes of rivers are changed.


Now, in this thread there have been sources that have been shown that put it as much lower than that for those quakes 200 years ago, which I knew was not accurate and was part of the USGS intentionally trying to downgrade the threat recently. It had always been said throughout the years that the New Madrid quakes of the early 1800s were the biggest ever known in recent times in terms of intensity. And that they were cataclysmic near the epicenters.

Well, here is a source showing that at the link below. Like I said, the USGS is trying to downplay this intentionally. The intensity damage of all the 1811-12 quakes was 12 on the Mercalli Scale. To put this in proper perspective, it was 8 Mercalli for the 2011 Japanese quake, and 9 Mercalli for the 2010 Haiti quake.

We are talking 12 for New Madrid by comparison. So this really is the thing that people need to be aware of and to understand. If there is going to be an event in that region, it just is not safe there, due to the incredibly severe shaking intensity and due to the buildings not being set for proper earthquake codes. Think of what happened in Haiti to the buildings.

The sediments of the area work as an amplification force and thus give more power to the quakes. That causes the dreaded liquefaction of the ground and the rolling effect, which topples buildings. Basically, it means that any building near the epicenter of the quake, that is not built to withstand very large earthquakes is going to fall down. Which means cities like Memphis are in huge trouble if it happens. So hopefully this puts that argument to rest and people understand if they live near this fault that the shaking intensity will bring down any normal structure. 12 Mercalli means nothing can withstand it. It is because once the ground liquefies and then the rolling back and forth motion begins, the buildings fall like a deck of stacked cards that are flicked by a finger.


Major Historical Earthquakes

Notable earthquakes in history

year affected area magnitude* intensity

1811–12 New Madrid, Mo. (U.S.) 8.0 to 8.8 XII

Originally posted by ButterCookie
Just curious,

Any activity in the past hour or so? My dad said that his house just shook. He's in Bartlett (North Eastern Memphis)

I'm in Eads, nothing felt here.

Seems Homeland Security is tracking us Fractivists in Arkansas ( maybe other places too ) .

The article below is from September 2010 but is still worth the read.

www.arktimes.com...

reply to post by iprotectwildlife


So the Frackers call in backups - back in September, wow, wouldn't have thought that far back.
Homeland Security will get more involved if they think it might infringe on their wallets.

reply to post by iprotectwildlife


It doesn't particularly surprise me, though I do find it a bit troublesome.

A few months back there was an escape from the city jail. Someone who had stolen a car and lead police on a high speed chase. He somehow escaped the city jail before the state police could pick him up.

Well I didn't know about this until I had gotten home, but while I was coming back form the grocery store I saw every police vehicle in the county crawling all over the town. On top of this, there were MIBs at almost every intersection, two of them per intersection. These were the seriously high end armored SUVs and government cars that looked like the kind that NEVER got dirt or rain or anything else on them. And they had the matching 'agents' driving, in the expensive looking black suits, dark sunglasses, and earpieces.

I was seriously nervous every time I drove between a pair of them.

Oh, and Wakenhut has been providing security to the chemical plants in the area (one of which is BP) for some time now, make of that what you will, but if you do a little digging, it doesn't take long to find a lot of tin hat stuff surrounding that particular security firm.

Susan... any updates for us on what happened with the Nightline crew?

reply to post by iprotectwildlife


all i have to say is keep a recording device on you at all times . even a tape recorder with your audio time date and observations can be used as evidence in court. be prepared. there is a reason they are watching scared citizens concerned about their own neighborhoods and land. (seems to me TPTB watche any persons that try to come together)

something in these stories is terrifying and Wrong!

reply to post by UtahRosebud


The interviews went well, they will let me know when it airs. They are still in town doing some I think,

reply to post by SusanFrey


Thank you for sticking your neck out and working with Nightline. You are a hero, as are all on this thread who are working to get some truth out.

In a half-fun/half-curious experiment, I drove through New Madrid at night recently. (Night was so I would not be influenced by signage/sights). Husband noted my physical actions-including ear troubles, dizzyness, discomfort, which passed once I was 30 miles south.

reply to post by katfish


I wish my ears would quit ringing and the migraine go away. I wonder where it would pick back up again if you would have been heading this direction.

earthquake.usgs.gov...
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Posters of the Arkansas swarm from USGS.

Don't know if these have been posted yet.