Solar Flare X-class 2.2

reply to post by apacheman


Thanks for you post - will give it bump.

If anyone needs to read up on solar flares you can get some basic information at: spaceweather.com...

Also they have a way to signup for aurora alerts to your phone.

This is from Solarcycle24 which is a pretty good site to go by:

"X2.2 Major Solar Flare - The sun showed some love on Valentines Day. Massive Sunspot 1158 has produced a major X2.2 Class Solar Flare at 01:56 UTC Tuesday. This is the largest Solar Flare of Cycle 24 and a CME could be associated with this event. A strong R3 Radio Blackout has taken place as well."

www.solarcycle24.com...

What is the over all effect of these CME lining up one after another? How much of a hit does the magnetosphere take and how much time to recover. Do we face a signifigantly higher risk if they are coming at us one after another, as it seems today. How much can our protective shield take????

Correction: there is a M 6.6, not 5.5 on the way.

Gotta wonder what the combined effects might be.

One thing for sure: with all the huge fireballs lately, the atmosphere must be really charged up and energetic right now. Not sure what it means, but I suspect it with be....ummm....interesting, in the chinese proverbial sense.

Originally posted by lasertaglover
This is from Solarcycle24 which is a pretty good site to go by:

"X2.2 Major Solar Flare - The sun showed some love on Valentines Day. Massive Sunspot 1158 has produced a major X2.2 Class Solar Flare at 01:56 UTC Tuesday. This is the largest Solar Flare of Cycle 24 and a CME could be associated with this event. A strong R3 Radio Blackout has taken place as well."

www.solarcycle24.com...

Thankyou lasertaglover....added to my favorites!
Check out strictlyhonest.com. Someone on here introduced me to it the other day, cant remember who or where, but I love it! Tons of links....

reply to post by apacheman


There was an M6.6 after the X2.2? Wow its gonna get crowded, can't imagine the effects from 2 strong ones at once.

reply to post by apacheman


Thanks for that explanation, it helps me to understand the magnitude of what your talking about. I've heard of the solar flares and cycles before, I just didn't know how big this was. Thanks again.

reply to post by jessieg


And people wonder why the birds are confused? Birds read Electromagnetic fields proven fact.

So ya i'd say too the point of,,, its got the birds whacked.

reply to post by crazydaisy


No, the M 6.6 hits first, then the X 2.2.

Not sure which way is better, "better" being entirely a philosophical term in this case, I think.

Actually, on further study the chart shows an M 6.6 followed by an M1 followed by the X 2.2.

Originally posted by apacheman
Actually, on further study the chart shows an M 6.6 followed by an M1 followed by the X 2.2.

Flare charts are here. Scroll to the bottom:
www.lmsal.com...

As far as size goes, while this is the biggest flare of this solar cycle, it is not in anyway a really big one.

Here is alist from Spaceweather of some big ones, just to help keep things in perspective a little bit:

1 04/11/03 X28+
2 02/04/01 X20.0
2 16/08/89 X20.0
3 28/10/03 X17.2
4 07/09/05 X17
5 06/03/89 X15.0
5 11/07/78 X15.0
6 15/04/01 X14.4
7 24/04/84 X13.0
7 19/10/89 X13.0
8 15/12/82 X12.9
9 06/06/82 X12.0
9 01/06/91 X12.0
9 04/06/91 X12.0
9 06/06/91 X12.0
9 11/06/91 X12.0
9 15/06/91 X12.0
10 17/12/82 X10.1
10 20/05/84 X10.1
11 29/10/03 X10
11 25/01/91 X10.0
11 09/06/91 X10.0
12 09/07/82 X 9.8
12 29/09/89 X 9.8
13 22/03/91 X 9.4
13 06/11/97 X 9.4
14 24/05/90 X 9.3
15 05/12/06 X 9.0
15 06/11/80 X 9.0
15 02/11/92 X 9.0

www.spaceweather.com...

reply to post by Regenmacher


Thanks for the link.

That's an excellently detailed resource.

For what it's worth, I have watched flares through the maximum of solar cycle 23 which was very interesting. During that maximum, we had plenty of X class flares so this is not exactly "rare" per se. One thing that does strike me as interesting is how quiet the sun had been prior to this little outburst these past several days.

Well doing a quick search, we've had x class flares with CME's in 2004 and 2005. No damage. So hopefully our magnetosphere is as strong as used to be and yesterdays M class does not intensify this one.

science.nasa.gov...

www.msnbc.msn.com...

This is a simpler explanation, the solar flare from Sunday was an M class which is due to see the disruption to earth around 1:30am est or later today 2/15.

Now there is an X class? Looks like we are in fact being bombarded by some flare activity. According to the article it takes around 37 hrs for the M class to arrive, so Weds am should be interesting to say the least.

For those that do not normally follow solar activity, here is some background info to put things in perspective:
The sun has solar cycles of activity which are approx 11 years. The cycle begins with a magnetic pole shift on the sun and the intensity and frequency of solar flares increases until it hits a maximum somewhere near the middle of the 11 year cycle. The cycle then winds down and comes back to a minimum where the polarity changes again and a new cycle is born.

When a solar maximum is reached, many sunspots will appear and will often eject charged particles into space. These are called CMEs, or Coronal Mass Ejections. The strength of the flare is rated on a scale which has three main categories: C, M and X.

C flares are rather commonplace and any 'active' sunspot is likely to pop a C or two. M's come from larger sunspots and if an M flare CME hits Earth they will result in really good aurora displays in the polar regions southward. X flares are where things get a little wonky. Remember, it all depends on how the CME hits Earth (sometimes it is a glancing blow, other times it is a dead-hit) but a low X (like the 2.2 being reported) may just cause some aurora in places that rarely get them, radio blackouts, unusual HAM propagation. A stronger X-class flare such as a X9 or higher may cause crazier things like satellite failure, power grid failure, and so on.

Now, getting back to solar cycles and where we are now... The solar cycle 23 went from 1996 to 2008 and was considered rather strong, or energetic, compared to other cycles. Based on this, scientists predicted cycle 24 to be more intense than any we have witnessed in modern times. By "modern times", I mean the technology age where we are able to study the sun in detail.

Well, after solar cycle 23 ended in 2008 the sun went quiet as everybody anticipated the beginning of this "big" cycle 24... and waited, and waited, and....

This past year the sun started to show some activity but then went quiet AGAIN. Now the scientists that predicted a really intense maximum started fearing that we were entering into a prolonged minimum. Prolonged minimum have happened before, and they usually are followed by record cold spells on Earth and even failed crops / famine.

Now the sun is active again - so the question is whether this is just another spurt followed by another round of silence or if cycle 24 is really going to take off for real this time. If cycle 24 really takes off, the prolonged minimum will still be noteworthy and may actually help explain a stronger or more intense maximum during this same cycle.

Unfortunately, it is down to speculation what will happen next. Since we have only observed sunspots since the 1750's and really have only recently in the past 50 years been able to observe CMEs in detail, we really cannot predict what will happen. Could there be a much larger overarching cycle at play here? Perhaps. Could an extremely quiet minimum indicate a very intense maximum? Perhaps.

Time will tell.

As for this X2.2, I would advise that people enjoy the show if you live near the poles but not much else for the rest of us. Sun geeks like me will just enjoy seeing what happens next.

Cant wait too see if the flare had an impact on Comet Temple 1 which Nasa is recording now, and impact in 3,,2,,,1, yes we have particle impact,,,,,

Now Check trajectory,,

Originally posted by lasertaglover
As far as size goes, while this is the biggest flare of this solar cycle, it is not in anyway a really big one.

Here is alist from Spaceweather of some big ones, just to help keep things in perspective a little bit:

1 04/11/03 X28+
2 02/04/01 X20.0
2 16/08/89 X20.0
3 28/10/03 X17.2
4 07/09/05 X17
5 06/03/89 X15.0
5 11/07/78 X15.0
6 15/04/01 X14.4
7 24/04/84 X13.0
7 19/10/89 X13.0
8 15/12/82 X12.9
9 06/06/82 X12.0
9 01/06/91 X12.0
9 04/06/91 X12.0
9 06/06/91 X12.0
9 11/06/91 X12.0
9 15/06/91 X12.0
10 17/12/82 X10.1
10 20/05/84 X10.1
11 29/10/03 X10
11 25/01/91 X10.0
11 09/06/91 X10.0
12 09/07/82 X 9.8
12 29/09/89 X 9.8
13 22/03/91 X 9.4
13 06/11/97 X 9.4
14 24/05/90 X 9.3
15 05/12/06 X 9.0
15 06/11/80 X 9.0
15 02/11/92 X 9.0

www.spaceweather.com...

edit on 14-2-2011 by lasertaglover because: (no reason given)

Too bad they neglect to note which of those were facing Earth and which were not. IIRC, that X28 was not even facing Earth and it interfered with satellites and whatnot.

Again, I am not saying this X2.2 is all that bad, but it is looking to be a direct hit so the aurora will be really active and some satellites may experience outages. (Most will be put in a safe-mode to weather the storm anyway.)

The only thing I see as a potential problem is if the CME from the M6.6 causes enough disruption in the magnetic field to leave vulnerabilities when the X2.2 arrives. Most likely not a big deal anyway, but interesting nonetheless.

Is this something to be greatly concerned about? all this jargon is new to mee