Comet Elenin Reaches Perihelion on 9/11/11 And It Is Estimated To Be 31 Miles (50 km) In Radius

Originally posted by leaualorin
reply to post by edog11

 

Oh yes! I would love to see the MOON GONE FOREVER OUT OF THE SKY!

Shameless celestial body!
Only shows us one side of "HER" !
Can you believe the nerve?!

Never heard of this "new " comet!
Keep posting news about it!

I certainly hope we or our Moon won't be hit by something this energetic. We would be very much dead if either the moon or our own planet gets hit by Elenin (Which is still unlikely IMO).
Good sense of humor though

Also, I would like to correct something from my first post:
The expected energy release from a possible impact from Elenin will more likely be around 36.000.000.000 (36 Billion) and not 4.5B MT if OP's conclusion about its radius is correct which doesn't really matter much to us since both are more than enough to wipe us out- we'll just be "deader"

NASA Comet Elenin Statistics

Important thing to note in these statistics about Comet Elenin is the Earth MOID (=minimal orbital intersection distance). It's at .03 AU. So the nearest intersection distance estimated right now is at 3% of the distance of the mean distance between the Earth and Sun.

That's very close, as far as comets go. I think it's in the top 3 of history actually.

Kind of suspicious this is not being talked about more. Hopefully in the upcoming months it is on the media at some point. It's certainly large enough to possibly cause problems for Earth.

Originally posted by MasonicFantom
NASA Comet Elenin Statistics

Important thing to note in these statistics about Comet Elenin is the Earth MOID (=minimal orbital intersection distance). It's at .03 AU. So the nearest intersection distance estimated right now is at 3% of the distance of the mean distance between the Earth and Sun.

That's very close, as far as comets go. I think it's in the top 3 of history actually.

Kind of suspicious this is not being talked about more. Hopefully in the upcoming months it is on the media at some point. It's certainly large enough to possibly cause problems for Earth.

edit on 22-2-2011 by MasonicFantom because: (no reason given)

The MOID is the minimum distance between the orbital paths of two objects. This is, in general, a useful number when looking at the risk of collision of two objects some time in the future, after a number of orbits. However, this is different than the actual distance between the two objects.

Right now, Elenin is calculated to be no closer than 0.229 AU to the earth. So when it comes within 0.03AU of the earth's orbital path, the earth will be far behind the comet. By the time the earth catches up to that point in its orbit, Elenin will have moved along a good distance. And with an orbital period calculated right now to be around 3.5 million years, Elenin won't be back for a while.

Originally posted by MasonicFantom

That's very close, as far as comets go. I think it's in the top 3 of history actually.

According to the JPL Small-Body Database, there have been a total of 23 comets with an Earth MOID less than Elenin's:

Name: Earth MOID (AU)
3D/Biela: 0.000518
C/1969 T1 (Tago-Sato-Kosaka): 0.000555
109P/Swift-Tuttle: 0.000892
C/1911 N1 (Kiess): 0.00277
C/2006 VZ13 (LINEAR): 0.00453
P/2006 T1 (Levy): 0.00546
C/1983 H1 (IRAS-Araki-Alcock): 0.00583
C/1991 X2 (Mueller): 0.00671
73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-S: 0.00735
55P/Tempel-Tuttle: 0.00848
C/1977 R1 (Kohler): 0.0088
P/2009 WX51 (Catalina): 0.009
P/1999 J6 (SOHO): 0.0102
C/1999 J3 (LINEAR): 0.011
C/1953 T1 (Abell): 0.0112
15P/Finlay: 0.0131
C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR): 0.0136
C/1900 O1 (Borrelly-Brooks): 0.0154
C/2007 W1 (Boattini): 0.0177
P/2000 G1 (LINEAR): 0.0188
P/2005 JQ5 (Catalina) : 0.0244
P/2004 R1 (McNaught): 0.026
C/2007 P1 (McNaught): 0.0262

reply to post by nataylor

Thanks for clearing up the definition of MOID for me.

reply to post by Red Cloak

Is it a coincidence that ELE stands for "Extinction Level Event"? Is it also a coincidence that Elenin could be seen as Elevennine (9/11 backwards)?

reading my mind Red Cloak? I've been sitting here for days with that thought and too lazy to post it and wondering when someone else would think the same thing.

hmmm

reply to post by nataylor


Forgive my apparant ignorance on the subject, but does that mean we'll be in the tail for a short time then?

And if Elenin is trailing smaller bodies behind it, are we likely to see an increase in meteors falling in populated areas? I don't mean anything that will flatten a city, just maybe something big enough to create a new viewing hole in some ceilings.

reply to post by invetro


No, we won't be in the tail. Remember, the tail always points away from the sun. When Elenin makes its closest approach to earth, the tail will be leading the nucleus. It will also be well above the plane of the earth's orbit.

Here's a video I threw together that illustrates Elenin's orbit. As you can see, when the comet is closest to earth, the tail is pointing up and away:

I suggest clicking through to watch it in HD since the labels are tiny.

Since our orbits don't actually intersect, any substantial debris that would be trailing Elenin is unlikely to impact the earth. Also, given Elenin's likely size of just a couple kilometers in diameter, the debris traveling with it would be relatively small. It would be the kind of thing that generates yearly meteor showers like the Perseids, which means its would not represent any kind of danger.

Originally posted by Red Cloak
Or that Leonid is the name of the Leonid meteor shower?

I don't get what your getting at?
Leonids is named because the shower seems to eminate from the constellation Leo.
No more, no less.

OP, I have to mirror your thoughts. I also thought it was quite a coincidence that this comet was called ELEnin.

Has anyone else seen the movie Deep Impact. It was the story of. ELE that the reporter first uncovered.


She thought this was a simple affair, but it began the tribulations of the extinction comet.

In the Nibiru 4th of March thread, people are drawing parallels to Nibiru and Elenin. Has anyone heard of this?

How can a comet and a brown dwarf be confused?

Also, this tread said the brown dwarf entered the solar system on the 4th. Does this mean Elenin is now in our solar system?

Originally posted by boondock-saint
31 Miles Radius !!!!!!

Holy mother mary and joseph !!!!

u better hope that thing doesn't
hit us. that will be lights out on the world

u got a source for that confirmation
cuz last I heard, it was too far away
to get an actual size.

I do know it's approaching stereo B
but am not sure if stereo B can get
the data we need.

edit on 2/11/2011 by boondock-saint because: (no reason given)

LEONID ELENIN CANT SEE AN OBJECT THIS SMALL
WITH only an 18" MIRROR FROM ABOUT 700, 000, 000 KM
THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!

...not with an 18" telescope, HUBBLE maybe.


This thing is BIG!!!!

It could be A LOT BIGGER than that.


spaceobs.org...

www.convertunits.com...

d=diameter of object
L=distance earth-object
ç= angular diameter in degrees


d=2L(tan (ç/2))

d=5284 km

Originally posted by nataylor

Originally posted by MasonicFantom
NASA Comet Elenin Statistics

Important thing to note in these statistics about Comet Elenin is the Earth MOID (=minimal orbital intersection distance). It's at .03 AU. So the nearest intersection distance estimated right now is at 3% of the distance of the mean distance between the Earth and Sun.

That's very close, as far as comets go. I think it's in the top 3 of history actually.

Kind of suspicious this is not being talked about more. Hopefully in the upcoming months it is on the media at some point. It's certainly large enough to possibly cause problems for Earth.

edit on 22-2-2011 by MasonicFantom because: (no reason given)

The MOID is the minimum distance between the orbital paths of two objects. This is, in general, a useful number when looking at the risk of collision of two objects some time in the future, after a number of orbits. However, this is different than the actual distance between the two objects.

Right now, Elenin is calculated to be no closer than 0.229 AU to the earth. So when it comes within 0.03AU of the earth's orbital path, the earth will be far behind the comet. By the time the earth catches up to that point in its orbit, Elenin will have moved along a good distance. And with an orbital period calculated right now to be around 3.5 million years, Elenin won't be back for a while.

The comet has to get through the asteroid belt without hitting anything before final trajectory calcs can be made, it could get a lot closer. It could hit an asteroid and change course, or fling something from the asteroid belt in our direction. We'll have to wait and see.

Originally posted by Red Cloak
It also appears that the current estimated size of the nucleus of the comet (not including the comet's tail) is 50 kilometers in radius (31 miles).

Source please of this size data.

IMO it's not the comet hitting the earth that is the problem, or it picking up debris, or us going through it's tail. All of these things won't happen. What will happen is the comet will interact with our sun. By interact I mean the sun will send out ejections towards it the entire time it's close. The earth will be right behind it the whole time receiving all the radiation and emp's. All in my opinion of course, but I guess my opinion is just as good as everyone elses if not better!

Originally posted by Outlooker
LEONID ELENIN CANT SEE AN OBJECT THIS SMALL
WITH only an 18" MIRROR FROM ABOUT 700, 000, 000 KM
THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!

No, you're wrong about that. An 18 inch telescope would have a maximum angular resolution of around 0.3 seconds of arc. When it was discovered, the tail was about 12 seconds of arc long, easily within the limits of the telescope.

Originally posted by Outlooker
This thing is BIG!!!!

No, not for a comet. Comets have very large, very diffuse comas and tails. There is nothing unusually large about this compared to other comets.

Originally posted by Outlooker
The comet has to get through the asteroid belt without hitting anything before final trajectory calcs can be made, it could get a lot closer. It could hit an asteroid and change course, or fling something from the asteroid belt in our direction. We'll have to wait and see.

The chances of it hitting anything in the asteroid belt are, pardon the pun, astronomical.

Originally posted by Outlooker

The comet has to get through the asteroid belt without hitting anything before final trajectory calcs can be made, it could get a lot closer. It could hit an asteroid and change course, or fling something from the asteroid belt in our direction. We'll have to wait and see.

When is it expected to reach the asteroid belt?

Originally posted by nataylor

Originally posted by Outlooker
LEONID ELENIN CANT SEE AN OBJECT THIS SMALL
WITH only an 18" MIRROR FROM ABOUT 700, 000, 000 KM
THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!

No, you're wrong about that. An 18 inch telescope would have a maximum angular resolution of around 0.3 seconds of arc. When it was discovered, the tail was about 12 seconds of arc long, easily within the limits of the telescope.

Originally posted by Outlooker
This thing is BIG!!!!

No, not for a comet. Comets have very large, very diffuse comas and tails. There is nothing unusually large about this compared to other comets.

it has traveling companions...

www.amication.de...

6888comete.free.fr...

I dont normally believe in this wish-wash but " it a coincidence that ELE stands for "Extinction Level Event"? Is it also a coincidence that Elenin could be seen as Elevennine (9/11 backwards)?


wow

Originally posted by Skewed

Originally posted by Outlooker

The comet has to get through the asteroid belt without hitting anything before final trajectory calcs can be made, it could get a lot closer. It could hit an asteroid and change course, or fling something from the asteroid belt in our direction. We'll have to wait and see.

When is it expected to reach the asteroid belt?

It should be most of the way through by now I would think.