reply to post by JakiusFogg
Fair point Jakius. Please forgive my pre-judging of you. I don't know you in person or through your forum posts. Your post about your dream is the
only thing I "know" about you, it's the only thing I'm going on. A bit presumptuous on my part, especially for my first post to ATS. I genuinely
apologise, because you DID in your original post have a "take it for what it's worth" attitude. You weren't making a big deal of it as I may now
be appear to be making a big deal of your original or follow-up post.
Perhaps I'm reading too much into your post. But then perhaps people (and not you to be fair) are reading too much into your dream AFTER the event,
and that's who my post was really addressed to.
Even though you didn't come on here claiming you were predicting anything and that you were a pre-cog or psychic, I was just trying to explain
(mostly to other people) why the dream wasn't necessarily a prediction of some sort.
Now I know that you did not dream about or predict the exact Richter scale magnitude of this earthquake, but people on other similar forums did say
"7+". So you and others, possibly after looking at earthquake maps of Japan, "predicted" or dreamed that there would be an "above 7 magnitude"
earthquake in Japan - but again, not hard to predict because Japan has had many earthquakes above 7 magnitude. The east coast of Honshu, the area
affected right now, actually had a 7.2 earthquake on Wednesday 9th March, two days before this big one that caused the massive tsunami.
Miyagi had a 7.7 earthquake and tsunami in 2005. Only one person died so we didn't hear much about it. Miyagi also had a 7.7 earthquake in 1978 where
28 people died.
Given that Japan has so many magnitude 7 or above earthquakes, anyone can have a stab at guessing and "predicting" when the next one will happen.
Another thing - predicting a magnitude 7 earthquake is NOT the same as predicting an 8 or 9 earthquake. On the Richter Scale 7, 8, and 9 are nowhere
near each other. A magnitude 7 to 7.4 earthquake releases hundreds of kilotons of energy. A magnitude 7.5 to 9.2 earthquake releases up to hundreds of
MEGA tons of energy.
If earthquake prediction, either through some sort of psychic ability or even through as yet unavailable scientific method, is to be useful then it
has to at least be accurate with the magnitude.
If you'd have told a resident of Miyagi that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake was gonna hit they'd probably shrug their shoulders and tell you they seen
it, done it, read the book, got the T-shirt. However, tell them that there's gonna be an 8.9 earthquake and they'll be more worried because it's
actually a thousand times worse.
Either way, prediction of commonly occurring earthquakes in the same places isn't the issue here. The one thing no one seems to have predicted (in
the above forums or amongst Japan's seismologists) is the devastating tsunami that's really the cause of so much death and destruction.
The waves from the tsunami caused by the 7.2 earthquake on Wednesday 9th March were only an inch high, whereas the waves from tsunami caused by
Friday's 8.9 earthquake were at least 30 feet high. If someone claims to have foreseen a magnitude 7+ earthquake then they *did not* predict what
actually happened on Friday.
Again, I know that YOU personally didn't claim to dream about or specifically predict a magnitude 7 earthquake. I mention all these Richter scale
numbers to make a point about why predictions need to be more specific and accurate, and how vague dreams or predictions give us nothing useful before
or after the event.
One last thing about you or others mentioning Richter magnitudes of 7+, for the purposes of prediction what is "7+"? Is it 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, etc? Is it
7.5, 8.0, 8,5 or above? This matters because 7.4 is much smaller in energy than 8.9. Also, is it possible that you or others are sub-consciously
projecting Richter scale numbers into your dreams and guesses? To lay people such as ourselves we primarily think of the destruction cased by
earthquakes in terms of Richter scale numbers, but it's not the Richter scale number that's the most significant thing. It's not the Richter scale
number that makes an earthquake a major historical event. In the past 100 years Japan has actually had about three earthquakes above 7.4 and 8
magnitude where no one or just a few dozen people have been killed. Conversely, Japan has had earthquakes of 6.x magnitude where thousands have been
killed. Of course these are exceptions to the rule, but point is that it's not only about the Richter scale number.
Even if your post and many others like it out there were actually a prediction, what purpose would it serve? With tens of thousands, dead, missing,
and injured I don't think the people of Miyagi care much for the "predictions" and dreams that people have had and posted on various alternative
With regards to me saying that "predicting that an earthquake happening in Japan is no big deal since Japan has about a thousand earthquakes per
year. Japan accounts for about 20 percent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater and on average, an earthquake occurs every 5
minutes", I do have links to credible, eminent, and qualified sources that show how big-ish earthquakes are very frequent in Japan or off the cost of
Magnitude 7.2 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011 March 09
Japan 7.2 Earthquake on March 9th
Japan Seismic Map
Earthquake Density Map
How much energy is released in an earthquake?
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN