Israel Mulling Sinai Attack?

Israel Mulling Sinai Attack?

www.presstv.com

Israelis should either stand by and watch, or attack Gaza or Sinai to maintain the current balance. The invasion of Sinai will fuel the flames of fire all across the Middle East, and any raid on Gaza won't go unanswered.

What is unfolding in Egypt is a local development with regional and international ramifications. The US experienced the Islamic Revolution of Iran and its regional as well as global impacts over thirty years ago, but it learned no lesson, and continued to throw its weight...

(visit the link for the full news article)

I think now its time to make some analysis about situation in Egypt and whats most important - around Suez canal.

Chaos in Suez, vacuum in security in most important waterway for European citizens, will have impact tomorrow morning in European markets, and oil bourses around the world.

Israel/USA is with EU in this... - Loosing Suez is not an option for western banksters. If vacuum is not filled from west, we can excpect move from SCO. (Russia/China) What will super powers do to secure world "as we know it?"

Fuel prices are already over our "pain-limits" and in stressed markets there is absolutely no place for any pressure to lift inflation. So, important question have to raise to table?

- What next?

My cousin is head of army intelligence in my country and after talks with him yesterday, we both saw together, that EU "Rapid" fighting force is maybe only option to send there soon as possible, if military of Egypt dont secure Suez in few days.

Day by day, pressure to send there US Marines will grow, even Israeli attack can be waited, because their own reason, but both of those aggressive moves would start huge escalation all over Arabic countries in response...

What is your reply to this most important question?

- Egypt military keeping security, but without any government?
- US Marines?
- EU Fighting forces with possible UN mandate?
- Israel using their forces?
- Some other possibility?

Tomorrow is monday and soon is morning when markets open in US and EU - Possible "black monday" is closing - Then we have are our backs in front of the walls - how to secure Suez, our markets, and oil prices without having any functional opposition in Egypt after week of riots?

Just pray?

www.presstv.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by JanusFIN


You want to see war happen like wildfire?

If the price of oil rises which it will, people will scream for intervention.

There is no way Israel will give up its use of The Suez canal, and no way will the U.S.
allow that either.

The officer corps of Egypt's powerful military has been educated at defense colleges in the United States for 30 years. The Egyptian armed forces have about 1,000 American M1A1 Abrams tanks, which the United States allows to be built on Egyptian soil. Egypt permits the American military to stage major operations from its bases and has always guaranteed the Americans passage through the Suez Canal.

The relationship between the Egyptian and American militaries is, in fact, so close that it was no surprise Friday to find two dozen senior Egyptian military officials at the Pentagon, halfway through an annual week of meetings, lunches and dinners with their American counterparts.

www.sacbee.com...

If The Muslim Brotherhood proceeds as planned, that will unite the entire area against Israel.

Will the U.S. break step with decades of support for Israel? How would they secure continued access to the canal? Interesting times indeed!

We have one Carrier Strike Group in the area, the Enterprise, that will be wanting to use the Suez to cruise into the Arabian Gulf to relieve the Lincoln in a few days. We have zero Marines in the immediate area, though there is one Amphibious Strike Group in the Arabian Gulf alongside the Lincoln that could go on up the Suez.

Neither is appropriate. The Carrier has airplanes and cruise missiles only, which are nearly useless in this kind of situation. The Marines are about 2,000 men, a few helicopters and harriers, and a handful of Abrams tanks, hardly a force capable of taking on an issue as broad as this.

Why Are Oil Markets So Nervous About Egypt?

Prior to the January 28 Friday protests in Egypt most analysts were predicting that the Mubarak regime would be able to contain the unrests in that country. What has happened in Friday has changed that equation. Not only the risk of a regime collapse in Egypt has increased sharply but the likelihood of a contagion effect throughout the Arab world has also increased. This contagion effect depends on how the situation evolves in Egypt within the next few days. If the mass protests force President Mubarak to leave the country or offer substantial political concessions no Arab capital will remain immune from rising public demand for an end to authoritarian rule. Under such a scenario the oil markets are right to be nervous about the supply of oil and gas from the region.

www.payvand.com...

More important thoughts to your mind... About Suez and possible EU intervention.

Egyptians in Suez watch canal business and fume

SUEZ, Egypt, Jan 30 (Reuters) - When Hossam watches ships carrying the wealth of the world pass through the Suez Canal running alongside this industrial city, it fills him with frustration.

The canal, a vital trading route since the 19th century, earned Egypt nearly $5 billion in 2010, but the 33-year-old Hossam said he and others in the city where many are unemployed or struggling on paltry pay see none of the waterway's benefits.

af.reuters.com...

EU officials: Egypt to top meeting agenda Monday

www.taiwannews.com.tw...

- Pulling out to step back in, fast?

And last news to provocate you all to think from latest breaking news...

Anger starting to focus on Israel, US

Saturday’s optimism on the streets of Cairo for imminent political change gave way to anger on Sunday, as thousands of demonstrators became increasingly frustrated with the lack of response from major world leaders, especially the US.

During the main protest on Sunday in downtown Cairo, one man painted a 20-meter long message in flowing Arabic cursive that echoed across the square: “Go Away Mubarak, you are from the Americans, and you’re working for them!” Egyptians understand that the world is waiting to see if President Hosnei Mubarak falls to popular pressure before major leaders decide which side to support. But this is infuriating for the demonstrators, who realize that six days of unrest has not accomplished their goals, and they need united international pressure in order to topple Mubarak.

www.jpost.com...

Escalation is happening...

Dang it! I searched, didn't find this, and posted a similar thread. This is much better. I'm going to reroute traffic here and ask the mods to close mine. Sorry!
_______________________________

An anxious Israel watches neighboring Egypt unravel

www.csmonitor.com

sraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Sunday. Israel's prime minister said Sunday that his country's 3-decade-old peace agreement with Egypt must be preserved, in his first public comment on the political unrest roiling Israel's neighbor and regional ally.

(visit the link for the full news article)

An anxious every country in the region and world, I'd say.

Of course, this is a concern....

However, reports that Egyptian security forces in Sinai are buckling amid the chaos, has stirred concern about an increased flow of weapons into Gaza. Egypt announced on Sunday that it decided to close the border with Gaza.

Reactions from other countries in additional news links and related threads.

www.csmonitor.com

Related News Links:
www.voanews.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Egypt protests draw mixed reaction in region
Iran Sees Rise of Islamic Hard-Liners
Saudi Arabia Slammed Protesters in Egypt as "Infiltrators"

Janus my old friend good to see you back in action...

As I posted in a related thread earlier...

I think closing the borders for the time being is a smart move.
No need to drag Israel and their baggage into that mess.

Let the Egyptians hammer out their problems by themselves, if the angle about more arms to Gaza is true that is.

Admittedly this sounds kind of fishy if you ask me...

Originally posted by JanusFIN


I think now its time to make some analysis about situation in Egypt and whats most important - around Suez canal.

Chaos in Suez, vacuum in security in most important waterway for European citizens, will have impact tomorrow morning in European markets, and oil bourses around the world.

Israel/USA is with EU in this... - Loosing Suez is not an option for western banksters. If vacuum is not filled from west, we can excpect move from SCO. (Russia/China) What will super powers do to secure world "as we know it?"

Fuel prices are already over our "pain-limits" and in stressed markets there is absolutely no place for any pressure to lift inflation. So, important question have to raise to table?

- What next?

My cousin is head of army intelligence in my country and after talks with him yesterday, we both saw together, that EU "Rapid" fighting force is maybe only option to send there soon as possible, if military of Egypt dont secure Suez in few days.

Day by day, pressure to send there US Marines will grow, even Israeli attack can be waited, because their own reason, but both of those aggressive moves would start huge escalation all over Arabic countries in response...

What is your reply to this most important question?

- Egypt military keeping security, but without any government?
- US Marines?
- EU Fighting forces with possible UN mandate?
- Israel using their forces?
- Some other possibility?

Tomorrow is monday and soon is morning when markets open in US and EU - Possible "black monday" is closing - Then we have are our backs in front of the walls - how to secure Suez, our markets, and oil prices without having any functional opposition in Egypt after week of riots?

Just pray?

www.presstv.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Now is not the time for taking chances. We should wait, let things settle down a little.
No rash moves. if the time for military action comes then let it be at the very bottom of any short list.

Originally posted by JanusFIN
What is your reply to this most important question?
- Egypt military keeping security, but without any government?

There needs to be some stable forces patrolling their territorial boundaries. That's a given...

- US Marines?

Hell No!

- EU Fighting forces with possible UN mandate?

Without US participation IMHO!

- Israel using their forces?

NO!

- Some other possibility?

Just pray?

I recommend patience.
Let the Egyptians do their thing.
Just protect the Ancient artifacts!

reply to post by SLAYER69

And as I replied to you in a related thread earlier, exactly. Let the Egyptians handle this themselves. Everyone else back off! And yes it does sound fishy. This is of course all part of a much bigger strategy (new playbook) involving the Palestinian region, Syria, and ultimately Iran, who has been gaining foothold and momentum in the ME region steadily over the last year.

reply to post by JanusFIN

Israel Mulling Sinai Attack?

More like... Iran stirring the pot?

Agitation through propaganda spread by word of mouth over the internet. It's a great recipe for increasing tensions, creating division and fear.

reply to post by JanusFIN

Why would Isreal take Suez/Sinai for the third time?

Yanks made them do the the peace deal with Sadat to give up Sinai in 1979

Yanks never backed Israel up in 1956 and forced Brits, France and Israel out of Egypt again

Yanks are your friends when it suits the Yanks

Suez has been secured before by Israel, France and Brits but they were stabbed in the back by a so called ally

Just to add I'm in no way anti Yank, the USA is the greatest experiment in integration and democracy the world has ever seen, heck they saved the Planet Earth from evil many times, it's just they could have helped secure the Suez waterway years ago. That area is always going to be a bit of friction, best secure the important bits?

Originally posted by ufoorbhunter
reply to post by JanusFIN

 

Why would Isreal take Suez/Sinai for the third time?

Yanks made them do the the peace deal with Sadat to give up Sinai in 1979

Yanks never backed Israel up in 1956 and forced Brits, France and Israel out of Egypt again

Attempting to derail this thread with facts?>

Yanks are your friends when it suits the Yanks

Or as you helped substantiate, so that the larger peace process of that period could move forward. I'm sure the Egyptians appreciated it. I'm also sure most of our US detractors here at ATS will try to ignore that fact...

Suez has been secured before by Israel, France and Brits but they were stabbed in the back by a so called ally

Were they trying to accomplish those things that suited their needs?

Hypocrisy?

I agree with allowing Egyptians the time and space to work through this or you risk creating a new enemy, one with control of the Suez won't be kind on the West.

I don't think the EUs RRF will be good enough to carry out the task.. nor will using Cyrus as a base of operations, it opens way to many doors for another conflict to arise.

reply to post by SLAYER69

Just saying that Israel will never do a Sinai again as its just wasted time. All Israeli eyes focus north and far east (same Iranian thing) and trust the Yanks hold sway over Mubarak.

Sure the Brits and French were just focussing on their interests, but when forced to pull out of the colonies the US and Soviets just jumped straight in there and replaced them.

reply to post by ~Lucidity


If I was to put on my tin foil hat... and create a conspiracy against Iran out of the current situation it would be that following the Iranian protests.. How immune would Iran be if a wave of protest against Authoritarian regimes swept through the ME?

I would assume Iran might be seen as ripe to follow fellow Islamic nations into regime change especially if the West are not perceived as having a hand in it..

I totally agree with you guys (EDIT: type) and what we need is time, not any rush to outside interventions - but when we are talking about Sinai and Suez, there is no place in earth, what is more important to western markets... 24 hours is a long time, if we see free fall in bourses, skyrockets in gold and oil prices.

Question is, because weekend has shown us - we are lacking organized opposition in Egypt behind this uprising - so how we can trust to chaos, and lifeline of EU markets is secured without foreign presence?

My hope is that some army general leads a coup in Cairo, someone that all Egyptians can believe, and martial law all over Egypt will take a place before new fair elections. Other possibility is Army officers open support to ElBaradei - but military coup in that case too.

"Monday, Monday, Can't Trust That Day"

The best advice I can think of for this “Monday, Monday,” is “fasten your seat belts in case we encounter any (un)expected turbulence.” Wall Street Sector Selector remains in “Yellow Flag” status, expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.

If foreign forces is only option to secure Suez, I see EU rapid forces only option - with Turkish support, ofcourse.
www.benzinga.com...