It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Russian Astronomers Predict Apophis-Earth Collision In 2036

page: 1
7
<<   2 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:31 AM
link   

Russian Astronomers Predict Apophis-Earth Collision In 2036


www.spacedaily.com

Russian astronomers have predicted that asteroid Apophis may strike Earth on April 13, 2036.
"Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000-38,000 kilometers on April 13, 2029. Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St. Petersburg State University said.
(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:31 AM
link   
I just thought I'd post this here first, so that everyone can see this third paragraph from the article straight away:


The scientist said, however, the chance of a collision in 2036 was extremely slim saying that the asteroid would likely disintegrate into smaller parts and smaller collisions with Earth could occur in the following years.


If we all survive 2012, we've got a new date to fantasize about.

www.spacedaily.com
(visit the link for the full news article)



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:34 AM
link   
Not sure what they are going from, but it does a near pass in 202something and depending on the path it takes there, it's a near miss or impact in 2036.

Non fear mongering scientists are saying sit tight, no worries. At the very least we can't say anything til it passes

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

[url=http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html]http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html[/ur l]




PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036. The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8. "Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."


Still something to watch.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:35 AM
link   
Myself, i am not the least worried about the 2012 hype as i know that i will need to continue paying taxes and going into work and doing what i do.

In any case, nice thread.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:38 AM
link   

Originally posted by DJW001

The scientist said, however, the chance of a collision in 2036 was extremely slim saying that the asteroid would likely disintegrate into smaller parts and smaller collisions with Earth could occur in the following years.


What a misleading title this article has.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:46 AM
link   
reply to post by tristar
 


Chicken little will of course claim the sky is falling. If this is indeed a threat, I'm sure NASA will pick a group of unlikely heros to board a hastely thrown together variant of the space shuttle. Land on the asteroid, and proceed to drill into it, insert a nuke into it, and blow it up. therefor turning a big threat into a bunch of little ones. LOL

This is way into the future for a prediction of such a small cosmic object to be really taken too serious.

remyrange



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:56 AM
link   
Ill be dead by then anyways so its nothing to worry about is it?
The size of that baby would probably only take a small a bomb to break up......or nudge out of collision path......



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:56 AM
link   
Seeing as to how Russian scientists and engineers have lost nearly 300 cosmonauts and billions of dollars of destroyed and defective equipment when it comes to space exploration, I place very little, if ANY, faith in their ability to predict anything whatsoever.
edit on 27-1-2011 by GuiltyByDesign because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 10:02 AM
link   

Originally posted by phishybongwaters


"Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."


Still something to watch.


Indeed. And it's a little odd that a statistician would say "four in a million", rather than "1 in 250,000". Perceptional, I suppose -- the difference between 1:45,000 and 4:1,000,000 seems bigger than 1:45,000 and 1:250,000 but it seems a bit disingenuous.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 10:34 AM
link   
reply to post by GuiltyByDesign
 



Seeing as to how Russian scientists and engineers have lost nearly 300 cosmonauts


I realize that this is off topic, but did you really mean to write "300 cosmonauts," or was that just a typo?



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 10:48 AM
link   

Originally posted by GuiltyByDesign
Seeing as to how Russian scientists and engineers have lost nearly 300 cosmonauts




What???



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 10:51 AM
link   

Originally posted by GuiltyByDesign
Seeing as to how Russian scientists and engineers have lost nearly 300 cosmonauts and billions of dollars of destroyed and defective equipment when it comes to space exploration, I place very little, if ANY, faith in their ability to predict anything whatsoever.
edit on 27-1-2011 by GuiltyByDesign because: (no reason given)


It's not just Russian looking at Apophis. This has been looked at by scientists around the world since its discovery in 2004

www.nasa.gov...

The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.


en.wikipedia.org...


On Friday, April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass Earth within the orbits of geosynchronous communication satellites.[12] It will return for another close Earth approach in 2036.

Precovery observations from March 15, 2004, were identified on December 27, and an improved orbit was computed.[13] Radar astrometry further refined the orbit. The 2029 pass will actually be much closer than the first predictions, but the uncertainty is such that an impact is ruled out. Similarly, the pass on April 13, 2036 carries little risk of an impact.


Hopefully, it doesn't knock out our satellites during its flyby



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 11:46 AM
link   
reply to post by DJW001
 


Good catch, and my appologies. The number would appear to be closer to 200 on closer inspection. Let me clarify my statement... please refer to the following links.

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

So, at a quick glance, it was NOT 300 cosmonauts, but around 200 casualties from various backgrounds... cosmonauts, engineers, and military.

Thanks for the sanity check. Nothing like a quick history lesson to remind me not to shoot from the hip all the time



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 11:55 AM
link   
reply to post by DJW001
 


Good catch.


...To those that think acknowledging negative realities constitutes paranoia - our culture would be WAYY better off if we ALL grew up knowing that everything isn't nicey-nice peachy perfect all the time. If we weren't taught to expect that roads shouldn't have bumps and we're all supposed to feel blotto "happiness" all the time. For starters, there would NOT be a national drug problem, and we wouldn't need to spend billions on "emergency preparedness" promo because everyone would already have it all handled and know how to work together, not panic.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 12:08 PM
link   
reply to post by DJW001
 


Great post thank you



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 12:17 PM
link   
I don't think we're going to have to worry about 2036. 2012 will wipe us all out anyway.



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 02:10 PM
link   

Originally posted by GuiltyByDesign
Seeing as to how Russian scientists and engineers have lost nearly 300 cosmonauts and billions of dollars of destroyed and defective equipment when it comes to space exploration, I place very little, if ANY, faith in their ability to predict anything whatsoever.
edit on 27-1-2011 by GuiltyByDesign because: (no reason given)


So you were just trying to bash the russians and using accidents that every single nation that aim to get to space had as the argument to discredit an astronomer prediction about the asteroid MAY hit Earth!

I don't see the correlation about the two



posted on Feb, 7 2011 @ 04:00 PM
link   
here's my question ...the article says it will make a close approach in 2012 first...how close is close????




The more likely scenario is this: Apophis will make a fairly close approach to Earth in late 2012 and early 2013, and will be extensively observed with ground-based optical telescopes and radar systems.





i.space.com...



posted on Feb, 7 2011 @ 04:12 PM
link   
just check this out.

also mentions 2036


edit on 7/2/11 by simples because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 7 2011 @ 04:18 PM
link   
Two and a half football fields in size?

I wouldn't worry about this at all.

One W88 warhead would completely vaporize it. The "fireball" of the warhead is over 1 mile and well into the millions of degrees. Hot enough to boil solid iron into vapor instantly. The shockwave would then disperse the vapor into space.

If we can hit a 3 meter satellite, we can hit a 450 meter meteor.
edit on 7/2/11 by MikeboydUS because: solid



new topics

top topics



 
7
<<   2 >>

log in

join