Originally posted by TheImmaculateD1
Lebanon first, Saudi Arabia next, Jordan is the most democratic in the entire region. Iran, Syria, Israel soon.
Iran and Israel are both more democratic than Jordan, and both are far more prosperous for the "common person" than Jordan. That said, the monarchy
popular in Jordan. Popular revolt is unlikely unless the king drops dead, or suddenly falls completely off his rocker or something.
Syria is actually doing pretty well for itself, considering Assad still runs it as a soviet-style police state. It's politically and economically
stable, and Assad himself is probably the most intelligent national head in the middle east.
Saudi Arabia is just completely doomed. The only
thing keeping it afloat is total American support. The Arabian people hate the Saudi
government, the divisions between rich and poor are probably the largest in the world, the country has no regional allies (even Jordan would tell
Saudi Arabia to piss off if push comes to shove) and the Saudi military's main claim to fame is being unable to fly their own jets. the al-Sauds
should have toppled 20 years ago, and the US should let 'em.
Israel will be with us for a few decades yet. However at some point it is going to have to undergo some radical changes; there's no way that the
Israel / Palestine conflict can go on for much longer. We're going to end up with a single state there, one way or another. Hopefully it'll come
about as a mutual union, rather than simply demographic sweeping, but it is
inevitable; two-state is dead.
Iran is also going to be around for a good long while. I predict some notable democratic reforms and some lessening of the Theocracy's power. iran is
"transitional," but is nowhere near collapse. One or two violent protests does not a national revolution make.
Kuwait is in the same boat as Saudi Arabia. Huge rich / poor divisions, hated rulers, and remains existing only because of US support. However it does
have the advantage of pretty much being only one city, and having a pretty docile population of imported slave labor.
Lebanon... Is a mess. There's really no solution to this place; the way the government is set up, with a set number of seats for each religion, is
wacky and doomed to failure. Unfortunately, everyone in Lebanon is dead-set on maintaining that system, probably out of fear that one of the "other"
groups will take over totally otherwise. I talk a lot about the political timebombs the British left scattered around the middle east and Africa;
that's nothing compared to what the French left in Lebanon, good lord. That country will never actually function.
Iraq... could go either way.
Yemen is a crash course in crashing.
Turkey is the sleeper here. You've got a nation where popular opinion is pretty evenly divided between secular rule and religious rule. A substantial
segment of the population is separatist Kurds. Many in the nation are desperate to become part of Europe, while others are pulling towards the Middle
East. It's a democratic nation, where democracy is backed up by police force and is unavailable for religious parties, no matter how popular they may
be. Basically Turkey is a big keg of gunpowder, but nobody has a match.