Tunisia! The critical point of change for the Arab world?

Well it look as if the Tunisian uprising will be the point of fracture from which the ossified Arab countries will begin to unravel. What comes out of what could be complete mess could be more advanced societies or more conservative and therefore fundamentalist-friendly societies.

Either way I cannot see the there necessarily being more pro USA.

www.nytimes.com...

Text“Transitions are pending,” said Robert Malley, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group in Washington. He listed the reasons for the beginning of an end: “The loss of energy, the loss of steam among many of these so-called moderate Arab countries, the loss of any purpose around which they can rally other than the simple survival of the regimes themselves.” In a way, dynamism in the Arab world has simply gone elsewhere. It could be argued that Iran and Turkey, non-Arab states that aggressively pursue divergent aims in the Middle East, play far greater political roles in the Arab world than any single Arab state. Hassan Nasrallah, the stentorian secretary general of Hezbollah, regularly wins popularity contests in the region. (The leaders of Iran and Turkey fare well, too.)

Mods should this article be moved to the middle east please do so as I don't know how to

tunisia is not in the middle east lol.

Originally posted by Johnze
tunisia is not in the middle east lol.

Lol. Nope it is not. It is in North Africa last time I visited. Perhaps we could have a discussion after you have read and digested the article.

I don't know why your debunkers think they are clever for pointing out that Tunisia is not in the Middle East. I guess that is supposed to mean it is not an Arab state, but that just shows they are either propgandists, or hopelessly ignorant of history.

I think the article has a solid point. The oil wells in the Arab world are in decline, and soon the spigot of wealth they have enjoyed since westerner's developed their resources for them is going to run out. By the end of this decade, or maybe in as little as five years, they will stop being oil exporters, and will soon go broke. They have yet to develop any viable industry or technology on their own, banking isn't going to do it.

The question is, when they run into the deep poverty that awaits them, with all of their overpopulation, and they find that the world will not welcome them as immigrants, will they start to own up to their own failures, or will they continue to blame the rest of the world as they become more and more desperate.

If Tunisia causes Egypt to destabilize, then yes it will be the critical point of change for the Arab world. If not, then my money is on the US-backed, forced split of Sudan to have the opposite effect and solidify the Arab/Muslim world.

- mike

reply to post by subversivemike


Egypt and Jordan are having more demonstrations and I can see a wave of unrest moving against the authoritarian Arab contries. The problem is that the political Islamic parties want to step into the vaccum in both Tunisa, Jordan and probably Egypt.

The same authoritarianism that kept political opponents in exile also killed any new parties from forming. Democracy has been impaired and adequate political parties cannot be invented out of thin air. Yet the people are complaining about the lack physical basics (affordable food, work etc ) as opposed to religious cravings.