Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

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posted on Mar, 31 2011 @ 10:09 PM
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From your post:



Originally posted by apacheman



While the 1999 meteor exploded at a height of 32kms, last night's meteor would have burnt up at a significantly higher altitude, Dr Christie said.




Bolding added for apacheman's information.


So you post one report where an observer, who "has seen lots of meteors" reports that "this was uncommon in brightness" and he thought "some pieces survived impact" ...when there was no impact. (a very common mistake made by inexperienced observers) Followed by the post above, which contradicts your theory that these meteors are making it deeper into the atmosphere.

I don't deny that what the person saw was bright, since I know myself how bright meteors can be, but brightness in itself is no indication that anything reached the ground. In fact, as I posted before in this thread, there is good evidence to suggest that meteors that are bright, are actually more likely to be completely consumed. just as the shuttle has to reenter at a favorable angle/speed. Too fast or too steep, and they "burn up".


The difference in speed is probably a much larger factor than time in this case,
as it is the speed that is the important factor in kinetic energy. You can see
this in actual meteoroids: fast meteoroids don't make it to the ground and are
gone in a second: slow ones that take seconds or even tens of seconds do make it
and drop meteorites. There, time and distance travelled clearly is not the
factor in the eventual percentage of ablation (as the slow ones taking long
times are the ones that are less ablated in the end): speed is. The slower the
speed, the higher the chance of survival.

With 7.5 km/s at the start, you are actually already close to the speed where
ablation stops (it stops at approximately half that speed). So I suspect that
ablation already isn't that effective at that speed to begin with, compared to
meteoroid speeds.

- Marco

Dr Marco Langbroek Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)


Just because a few more fireballs are being reported, as nda11 pointed out so rightly, does not mean it is not normal, and within expected variation. Without more data going back over many years, giving us a baseline, we don't know if fireball rates are increasing or not.

As I have said time and time again, there is nothing that strikes me (or anyone else who has studied this subject) as unusual about the reports we are seeing at the moment.

As you posted directly above, there is an increase in bright fireballs during this part of the year every year.

Bill Cooke, who wrote the article you posted above also has access to the same data we have been discussing here, and is well aware of the discussion on the subject (he is a meteor observing list subscriber), yet he makes no mention of fireball rates "increasing each year". Don't you think he would if there was evidence for it?





Originally posted by apacheman

"These types of meteors are spotted around the world about once a day and it's just a matter of being in the right place at the right time. It was a lovely clear night last night and it was relatively early, so many people would have seen it."


[url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902]http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902[/ur l]

Once a day globally, eh?

As I've been reporting, there's way more than that just over the US alone.


You'd think that all reporters could find someone who was up to date with the subject wouldn't you? In many cases that is not the case, sadly.

As I've been saying for years here on ATS, bright fireballs are a lot more common that most people (who don't have a direct involvement in the subject, which can include man experienced (in their own field)astronomers) think. All you have to do is go out and spend time looking up... just as many of us do, and we are not seeing what you are telling us is happening...

How many hours would you say you spent observing specifically for meteors in the last year? I estimate I spent around 22-23, which was a slow year for me. Even so, I observed at least 20 fireball class meteors related to meteor showers, but the brightest two were sporadic (random meteors not related to meteor showers). They were impressive, and stood out amongst all the shower members as being completely different to the hundreds of other meteors observed in the last year.

Last year was no different to me than any other year, in terms of "if you spend time, you will see more meteors, and brighter meteors".




posted on Mar, 31 2011 @ 10:45 PM
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reply to post by C.H.U.D.
 


I bolded it as a typical statement from experienced observers this year.

Look, the reported data show an increase.

Period.

I say it's a real increase, you say a reporting aberration due to "more people watching".

I've shown the average number of observers per report is increasing, accounting for the "more people" part in a logical way.

So far you've offered ZERO proof that your theory is accurate, just endless opinion and unsupported assertions.

I've no interest in a p'ing contest, I'm merely reoprting the data as they come in, with the occasional analysis based on it.

As far as skywatching goes, last year probably around 15-20 hours. Over my lifetime? Huge amounts, due to nightwatches and operations in the military (the sky was scanned frequently for a variety of reasons; many, many hours scanning the sky on a shrimpboat in the Gulf of Mexico; sitting in the hot tub at night watching the sky with my lady...

I know the sky in a way most don't, and have a vastly larger personal database of experience to draw on and compare to than most people have.

What's the problem with acknowledging that we are indeed experiencing more this year?

Doesn't mean that it's forever, just now..numbers go up, they go down, and right now they seem to be on the upswing.

There are more this year, reported by more people, yes but the average per report is pretty stable, rising only slightly. If you were correct, the average number of observers per event would be far higher than what it is.

So offer some proof of your theory or deal with the facts, as reported.



posted on May, 25 2011 @ 12:20 PM
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posted on May, 25 2011 @ 01:14 PM
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I found an interesting paper that posits recurring bombardment episodes due to comet disintegrations that produce streams of impacts over short periods. This would fit with what we are currently experiencing, and may well portend a coming episode of heavy meteor bombardment. A very interesting read, and quite relevant to the subject at hand.

journalofcosmology.com...


There is now compelling evidence that an exceptionally large (50-100 km) comet entered a short-period, Earth-crossing orbit some time in the Upper Palaeolithic, and underwent a series of fragmentations. During this disintegration the Earth was probably subjected to occasional episodes of intense bombardment. Such an episode might constitute a sensible astronomical framework for understanding the postulated catastrophe at 12,900 BP. Concentrations of sub- kilometre bodies may still exist in meteor streams and constitute a significant hazard. Such bodies are difficult to detect, and current deflection and mitigation strategies do not seem adequate to deal with them. For larger bodies, a paradox exists in that the number of comets expected to be thrown into Halley-type orbits (periods 20-200 years) is at least two orders of magnitude greater than observed. The fate of these comets is unknown, raising the prospect that a significant population of dark Earth-crossing comets may exist and adding further uncertainty to impact hazard assessments. Discrete bombardment episodes are evident in the well-dated impact record of the past 250 Myr and several coincide with transitions between geological periods. There is evidence that these episodes have a ∼ 35-37 Myr periodicity, which may be connected to Galactic disturbances of the Oort comet cloud. The threshold for periodicity begins for impact craters >∼ 40 km in diameter; since this is also the threshold which impact ejecta create worldwide conflagration, it again implies that comets are a significant, if not dominant, component of the global impact hazard.



posted on Jun, 24 2011 @ 03:16 PM
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Latest:

613 fireballs over the US reported by 1935 people/

Daily average: 3.52

Monthly average: 102.17


it was unlike anything i seen before i was leaning out my window when i seen it, i tried to look for it but there is brush and wooded area nearby. It was enormous the size of softball so im assuming from the distance from me to it, it had to be the size of a basketball when it landed. There was no tail, train or any other type of trail just a round mass the glowed bluish green. It also didn't seem to burn out or shrink in size as it fell just maintained a steady ark.o yes and there was a distinct burning smell in there air but it didn't smell normal like plastic, wood or even metal it was almost like the smell of garbage and gas if that makes any sense to you.



This was a Sentinel Camera Capture at 10:19:43Z, - an additional bolide separate from the 11:47 PM event over Texas. Initial and final Az/Alt estimations are: 246/10 & 241/06 True Azimuth. Concurrent capture on Meteor Scatter from USAF Space Radar at 10:19:50Z . Video can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Composite image and meteor scatter spectrum can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Multiple fragmentation in the short event. Sentinel Camera capture. This was a Sentinel Camera Capture at 10:19:43Z, - an additional bolide separate from the 11:47 PM event over Texas. Initial and final Az/Alt estimations are: 246/10 & 241/06 True Azimuth. Concurrent capture on Meteor Scatter from USAF Space Radar at 10:19:50Z . Video can be viewed here: www.facebook.com... Composite image and meteor scatter spectrum can be viewed here: www.facebook.com...
Event 606



My mom and I were out walking when the meteor inst antly caught our attention. We stayed a few minutes to see if more would follow, but none did. There were two almost sphere-like pieces which broke off and then disintegrated. Both were white in color. I've stayed up quite late and woken up in the wee hours of the morning to watch meteors, and only once have I seen a fireball with a train bright as this. As it appeared it glowed a brilliant white, then gained an almost green hue to it which grew in intensity. The train then began sparking purple flecks that elongated behind it. The meteor came much lower than previous ones, and at the end began letting off am almost ball shaped debris. Each debris piece disintegrated in one, maybe two seconds. As the ball itself disappeared the train glowed almost effervescently.


all quotes are from reports at ams.org



posted on Jul, 7 2011 @ 01:41 PM
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posted on Jul, 15 2011 @ 01:05 PM
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As of 13 July 2011:

672 fireballs reported by 2038 people.


Daily average: 3.46. Monthly average: 112

Daily average, 2005: 1.28 Monthly average 2005: 39


A lone meteor shot from beneath the moon in my vie w at 10:42PM from the front living room window of the house in Huntsville, Texas. The moon will be full in two days. It was headed in a NW direction which might skirt the west side of Huntsville. It was aflame with a slight aurora about it and a 3 to 4 inch tail.



This was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen!!!!!!! Facinating and exciting! Let me start by saying i was at my cabin sitting on my deck when I heard what I thought was the wind rustling the tops of the trees. It struck me Very odd considering no wind blowing what so ever around me. As I was looking at the tree tops through the trees I saw a massive fireball object falling from what seemed like just over the tree tops from the sky. I even called the local dispatch to report it. This was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen!!!!!!! Facinating and exciting! Just a glowing almost fireball, dark out so no smoke seen

I was driving southbound on Route 84 at 70 MPH goi ng down a long decline, when the I noticed the long train just to the right and 10 to 15 degrees above the treeline. I have seen shooting stars before where the train disappears as fast as the star moves, but this train was wider and remained for a duration of 6 - 8 seconds until the front end broke into two smaller light balls and disappeared. I was very suprised by the duration and brighness and from the angle it was clear that it was moving in almost the same direction as my car was travelling. As it fragmented into 2 fragments it got slightly brighter then disappeared. I have seen shooting stars before where the train disappears as fast as the star moves, but this train was wider and remained fo the duration of 6 - 8 seconds until the front end broke into two smaller light balls and disappeared.



It was extremely huge for a metorite in my opinion and very bright and lasted longer than any I've ever seen. I ran inside and turned the local early morning news on and watched for the next 20 minutes hoping to hear something about it. I saw a bright flash of light but it was at the begining of the event out the corner of my eye it was what caught my attention to it. It was extremely huge for a metorite in my opinion and very bright and lasted longer than any I've ever seen. I ran inside and turned the local early morning news on and watched for the next 20 minutes hoping to hear something about it. I was in such shock from how huge it appeared to be and how high in the color spectrum it was that I didn't notice if there was a trail after it disapeared.



posted on Jul, 17 2011 @ 01:11 AM
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An unknown mass believed to be from outer space on Saturday fell near Kilimambogo and Tala towns. Initially, there were reports of an explosion in Kangundo, Tala, Yatta and Kakuzi before an extra-terrestrial rock fell at around 10 am. Area residents say the loud sound was comparable to a bomb explosion or a crashing aircraft while others felt it was an earthquake. Police and military officers from Thika rushed to the scene at Kiumwiri village, Murang’a county. The military later took away the object for expert analysis. The black smooth rock weighing about five kilos fell at a maize plantation, 60 meters from a nearby homestead, but no one was harmed. Lt Col J.N. Vungo, the commanding officer of the 12th Engineers Battalion, said initial assessment indicate that the object was not manmade and was believed to have come from outer space. “We got conflicting reports from Kilimambogo area indicating that an aircraft had crashed or a bomb had exploded in the area and jointly with the police we mobilised our officers to find out what was happening,” he said. On locating the scene, security personnel sealed off the area, which was attracting curious residents.

“We believe it is a heavenly body, probably a piece of a meteor that may have disintegrated on entering the earth’s atmosphere,” said Lt Col Vungo, who was accompanied by Thika police boss Paul Leting. Mr Vungo said reports from Ndunyu Sabuk area indicated that a bigger object was seen in the skies before it disintegrated after a loud blast. The official said according to witnesses, the object raised a cloud of dust on hitting the ground, was extremely hot and was spinning on impact. “Meteors often lose stability and fly away from their orbit, but they burn out on entering the atmosphere due to friction, Lt Col Vungo said. However, he added that it was a rare occurrence in the East African region. An eye witness Ms Jane Wangui Kibugi said she was only 50 meters away when the object fell. “I saw a cloud of dust and when I went closer I found the black smooth stone, which had dug a hole on the ground,” she said.


hisz.rsoe.hu... O-20110717-31602-KEN

An interesting report from Africa.

Foretaste of the near future?



posted on Aug, 27 2011 @ 12:34 PM
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posted on Dec, 1 2011 @ 01:19 PM
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As of 30 Novembr 2011:

1437 fireballs reported by 4050 people.

www.amsmeteo... rs.org/fireball2/public.php?start_date=2011-01-01&end_date=2011-12-31&state=&event_id=&submit=Find+Reports

Daily average: 4.30. Monthly average: 130.64

Daily average, 2005: 1.28 Monthly average 2005: 39.

The slope of the graph keeps increasing. The amount of energy added to the upper and middle atmosphere must be just immense compared to just a few years ago: approximately triple the norm for many decades.


Another place for reports:

lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com...





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