Originally posted by apacheman
While the 1999 meteor exploded at a height of 32kms, last night's meteor would have burnt up at a significantly higher altitude, Dr Christie said.
Bolding added for apacheman's information.
So you post one report where an observer, who "has seen lots of meteors" reports that "this was uncommon in brightness" and he thought "some pieces survived impact" ...when there was no impact. (a very common mistake made by inexperienced observers) Followed by the post above, which contradicts your theory that these meteors are making it deeper into the atmosphere.
I don't deny that what the person saw was bright, since I know myself how bright meteors can be, but brightness in itself is no indication that anything reached the ground. In fact, as I posted before in this thread, there is good evidence to suggest that meteors that are bright, are actually more likely to be completely consumed. just as the shuttle has to reenter at a favorable angle/speed. Too fast or too steep, and they "burn up".
The difference in speed is probably a much larger factor than time in this case,
as it is the speed that is the important factor in kinetic energy. You can see
this in actual meteoroids: fast meteoroids don't make it to the ground and are
gone in a second: slow ones that take seconds or even tens of seconds do make it
and drop meteorites. There, time and distance travelled clearly is not the
factor in the eventual percentage of ablation (as the slow ones taking long
times are the ones that are less ablated in the end): speed is. The slower the
speed, the higher the chance of survival.
With 7.5 km/s at the start, you are actually already close to the speed where
ablation stops (it stops at approximately half that speed). So I suspect that
ablation already isn't that effective at that speed to begin with, compared to
meteoroid speeds.
- Marco
Dr Marco Langbroek Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)
Just because a few more fireballs are being reported, as nda11 pointed out so rightly, does not mean it is not normal, and within expected variation. Without more data going back over many years, giving us a baseline, we don't know if fireball rates are increasing or not.
As I have said time and time again, there is nothing that strikes me (or anyone else who has studied this subject) as unusual about the reports we are seeing at the moment.
As you posted directly above, there is an increase in bright fireballs during this part of the year every year.
Bill Cooke, who wrote the article you posted above also has access to the same data we have been discussing here, and is well aware of the discussion on the subject (he is a meteor observing list subscriber), yet he makes no mention of fireball rates "increasing each year". Don't you think he would if there was evidence for it?
Originally posted by apacheman
"These types of meteors are spotted around the world about once a day and it's just a matter of being in the right place at the right time. It was a lovely clear night last night and it was relatively early, so many people would have seen it."
[url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902]http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10715902[/ur l]
Once a day globally, eh?
As I've been reporting, there's way more than that just over the US alone.
You'd think that all reporters could find someone who was up to date with the subject wouldn't you? In many cases that is not the case, sadly.
As I've been saying for years here on ATS, bright fireballs are a lot more common that most people (who don't have a direct involvement in the subject, which can include man experienced (in their own field)astronomers) think. All you have to do is go out and spend time looking up... just as many of us do, and we are not seeing what you are telling us is happening...
How many hours would you say you spent observing specifically for meteors in the last year? I estimate I spent around 22-23, which was a slow year for me. Even so, I observed at least 20 fireball class meteors related to meteor showers, but the brightest two were sporadic (random meteors not related to meteor showers). They were impressive, and stood out amongst all the shower members as being completely different to the hundreds of other meteors observed in the last year.
Last year was no different to me than any other year, in terms of "if you spend time, you will see more meteors, and brighter meteors".
