Originally posted by chocise
My guess would be it can't continue...

That's precisely what "they" said at 400 (Prechter at 300), and they've continued to repeat it every year since. I used to have several links bookmarked, 2004 through 2010. Year after year, the same old top-callers, making the same old bubble talk. Some day they might actually hit it, but not until we see a global allocation to precious metals in multiples of what we have today, or, until the Fed raises short-term interest rates and successfully unwinds trillions of dollars in egregious monetary policy. My opinion only, I could be wrong.

On another note, and something that Pritcher piece mentioned in its last paragraph was something about Armageddon... that if things did pan out badly no one would be around to cash in on anything!

I think Prechter qualifies as a hard-line doomster, at least by Wall St Journal standards. As a precious metals investor, my opinion may be biased by the poor performance of his bearish Gold analysis. Maybe one of his current, or former subscribers will show-up with a different perspective.

Bubbles can only form in a stable or semi-stable monetary system. Neither is the case right now

I mean talks of USD and EUR abolishment have hit MSM News in the last few months. There is simply no room for denying it anymore no matter how you look at it.

World events are starting to compound and grow in speed. its getting scary

silver is braking out. the fall of JPM is coming soon

Silver is up $2 USD in two days.

NO NO!! , you can't profit off of PM purchases, LOL !!!


Ride the waves, and ignore the fools:

Purchase PM's now, purchase land just before it all falls apart.

That was to be expected, after last week but a 100% rise this year is more or less confirmed.
The 18gram Silver coins were valued all 10 Euro here in Austria for the last years.

The 2011 Edition is a 20 Euro now.
Even the Austrian Mint knows what's going on...

gold and silver aren't dropping, they are rising. The media just likes to say they are dropping when they dip, but if you look at the long term graph gold and silver only go up, whereas the stock market stays relatively the same. Deception by the media to prevent you from owning gold and silver.

Today was the day I was waiting for, a nice size correction for silver. I didn't exactly back up the truck, nor did I succumb to temptations to buy some options (maybe next big dip!), but I did load up on physical, replenished inventory that I had allowed to drift down, as the price went up this past week.

Fortunately, I'm a regular at most coin shops in my area, so no one was surprised to see me, but there is something less experienced people may encounter on a big down day.

You may call around, asking for whatever you are planning on getting, and find that many dealers will tell you that they are "out". Don't immediately believe them! Sometimes it's true, but often, it's not. If they are smaller dealers, they probably carry less inventory, and whatever they have in appreciable volume, they may literally have purchased from the public during the few days before you called. That being the case, if you tell them you want "X" quantity after a $1.50/oz. drop, they may fib, and say to try back later. Sometimes they're smart, and they just raise their prices accordingly, with a take it or leave it attitude.

Obviously, they want to make a profit, and in some areas, the margin can be tight, on particular products, such as silver rounds. Real example, dealer buys a dollar back of spot, and sells for 50 cents to a dollar over (depending on who he is selling to, or volume involved, etc.). That $1.50 drop may not have completely erased his margin, but darn close. If you are a customer that gets the 50 cent-over special price, don't be surprised if they don't want to sell at that price.

Larger dealers are interesting, some of them hedge of course (futures), but not as many as you might think, because depending upon how they are reading the market, they may decide to dump everything they have assuming the next day will get worse. The problem here is that they can get on the phone and move so-many thousand ounces instantly, by committing to deliver. In that case, when you call, they may be sitting on 10,000 rounds, but they are "out", because they dumped the whole thing with one phone call.

Here's my advice for the newer investor in physical silver, in these crazy markets. Just SHOW UP, don't call ahead. Obviously, you need to keep some powder dry, and watch the price, but when it drops, be ready, and have a few shops targeted already.

It's exactly what I did today. I was out getting a tire repaired (slow leak) when I glanced at my iPhone and the 35 cent decline turned into $1.60, in mot many minutes. As soon as they got me back on the road, I hit three shops, and really cleaned up, as dealers were counting up inventory, and considering their options (one small shop, the guy still didn't realize things had changed so fast, until he went to check the price, as I stood there).

"If" I had called a couple of these guys, they might have told me anything, but since I hung my head in their face, they tend to feel more obligated to give you something. Also, it's hard to tell a person face-to-face that you're out, when the coin counter noise is echoing in the background! Usually, they CAN accomodate at least some of your demand, so grab what you can get, and head on to the next place.

Silver price is back up 44 cents as I type. No guarantees about tomorrow, the decline could resume, and a further correction could temporarily make my "success" not feel as sweet.

BUT, if tomorrow is lower, I still haven't shot my wad, not at all. I'll be back to see what else I can find. BUT, my expectations won't be as high. I won't be too surprised if they tell me some guy (like me) was in the day before, and cleaned them out already. On Day Two of a big decline, such a statement will ring truer and truer. And if I can find anything in volume worthwhile, I will be thankful, but I won't hold my breath. Rather, I will congratulate myself on my previous day's gains, knowing that something $1.50 lower, is better than nothing $2.50 lower.

Such is the "real math" of this super tight physical market. Take it for what it's worth, and good luck to all.

JR