Why Gold and Silver are dropping ...

14154.33 for the dow before a good pullback....short term is 12303 a small pullback then 12444 then a medium pullback....gold i can't get to now....but the dow will go way up, for a bull showing and then just above 14156.xx we get the bearish fake out big enough to turn all the retail investors away from buying.
the breakthrough is a marrying of dow theory with elliott wave analysis...both from the 1930 era

reply to post by OnTheFelt


Love "Buy the dip." Its absolutely true. Our economies ARE pyramid schemes. Which is why we need population to keep growing, import that labor. What? Cant breed or import people fast enough to keep the pyramid from falling. Holy #, now what?

SNAP! Move the scheme to the two most populous nations in the world! Billions of fresh suckers...........err consumers....... for the Ponzi scheme.

What got me in the article the OP posted was this,

www.stockhouse.com...

If large numbers of bullion-holders demand delivery, there will either be a formal default in London or New York, or a formal default of the bullion-ETF’s – since their “custodians” (the world’s largest bullion “shorts”) will simply walk-away from their commitment to unit-holders in order to cover their own, massive short positions.

What happens to currency if bullion holders simply tell people who bought "sucks to be you, I dont have what I sold you?"

Originally posted by Rigel Kent
Gold will always be prized and have worth, Its been like that for 1000's of years and is not about to change because some ATS posters dont have any and slag it.off.

I dont know. If things got desperate enough, food or other actual items trump gold. I agree with you that gold will likely be valuable because of its history of stability, just habit in other words, but there is no reason for it to.

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
reply to post by OnTheFelt

 

What happens to currency if bullion holders simply tell people who bought "sucks to be you, I dont have what I sold you?"

a. value of existing physical metal gold (and silver) will skyrocket
b. economic collapse
c. shtf in our ATS terminology
d. combination of a, b, and c

reply to post by manta78


Thats what I was worried about.

It seems to me like either way, currency is screwed.

I have found a explanation
www.goldseiten.de...

Sorry for the link is in German. You can use google translate on it or something posing it directly doesn't work
It basically is a forensic study of the gold price during 'intra-day' and 'overnight' periods.

There is a 95% correlation between the intra-day manipulation and the overnight price development.
So chance chance pretty much be ruled out.

Depending on how you look at it there even is a higher correlation in the recent time and there is a proof that the silver price is manipulated along the way (second page)!

Can someone please give me the first steps to starting a Gold/Silver collection? Preferably 100%, instead of coins.

Most trusted places to go?
Online or a physical building?
Where to find accurate values of each?
What would you start out with?
What % of your savings would you have in PM?
Is now the best time to buy?

Thanks in advance

Originally posted by jessejamesxx
Can someone please give me the first steps to starting a Gold/Silver collection? Preferably 100%, instead of coins.

Most trusted places to go?
Online or a physical building?
Where to find accurate values of each?
What would you start out with?
What % of your savings would you have in PM?
Is now the best time to buy?

Thanks in advance

Banks or coin shops
I prefer a bank, some coin shops require you to announce your purchase since most do not keep the metal directly in the shop. his can be done online also. There are some respected dealers like midasresources (gcn) also whre they send you the stuff by mail.
www.bullionpage.com... is nice
bullion ounces are best
that is what you have to decide yourself
I's a reaonable good time, the macd oscillator can help you with 'buying the dips'.

B wave (Elliott Wave: ABC correction) is likely in as of today and now we will retest the recent lows (A wave) and likely make a lower low...altho silver is showing relative strength vis a vis gold. The scenario that would screw up the greatest # of traders (as is often the case) would be an irregular B wave to a higher high in silver (ie, fibonacci 34) and then a fibonacci 13 leg down (= 2008) to fibonacci 21 (2008 high area). Most would not expect a severe sell off after a new high and many who chickened out and sold out on the A wave would rush back in to buy the new high and then feel obligated to hold longer on the next dip (ie to at least below the A low; 26.30). Double whipsaw on both ends possilbly. IF we dont make a higher high (the weaker scenario) then we could drop to the 25 handle (C=A) or still try to make it to the 21 area with the wcs being the 18 area (-fibonacci 13 fr the high and the "genesis of acceleration" to the upside).

reply to post by CosmicCitizen


That's funny.
This elliot wave thing is like a self-fulfilling prophecy, since so many speculators believe in it they all act accordingly.. Even more in the fundamental I think there would be more correlation with a graph filling oscillator, which has a completely uniform spectrum. The elliot wave has similar properties but is a lesser approximation.

A graph filling oscillator will correlate with every possible curve at some point btw

reply to post by kybertech

Banks or coin shops

Just to clarify, banks in the US are out. If you walk in asking them for anything more "precious" than the Almighty Dollar (green paper), they'll look at you like you have two heads.

Coin shops can be "dangerous" to a newer investor. A personal recommendation from someone you trust might help. Cash and carry is the best policy.

Online, a couple very good sources. Ebay is OK, some good deals to be had, just do your homework first.

JR

I don't know about you guys. And I certainly wouldn't do this with my own money.

But I think Silver is at the top of a downward channel right now. I think there is another leg lower.. Low 20 range, IMO. I think it is a good opportunity to unload some longs here or outright short. I have no skin in this one though.

I also think the Dollar is prime for a reversal -> Eur/Usd same

reply to post by JR MacBeth

With coin shops I meanly meant Bullion dealers with a shop, the most 'secure' place to get them is directly from the mint. (They charge you extra for consumer prices though)

Interesting, I didn't know that banks in the us are so far off.
Here in Austria you get them at every bank, but that may be cause some kind of 'tradition'. Heck we even have 3 series of coins which all include fractionals minted here and you don't even have to order cuz they are on stock (Philharmonics, Coronas and Ducats) . The silver Philharmonics are mostly sold out recently....

Best deals are old currency coins 1000 Schillings though. (They face value used to be higher than the material ) My best hope is that they will become currency again once the euro is gone

Btw: Depending where you live there are similar coins which give you the most metal for your money. (Agio)
The buy/sell ratio is worse than bullion though but as it seems now you wouldn't do that for any currency currently in existence anyway...

Originally posted by Dance4LifeI have no skin in this one though.

You bet..
Physical silver is sold out at most places, people buying up whatever is there. So economics 101 would disagree.
But its always possible that Goldman Sachs makes its last move it will ever do

reply to post by kybertech


Elliott Wave analysis is an art not a science per se....altho the related fibonacci ratios are abundant in nature. Impulse waves are 5 up (suibdivided into 3 with the trend and 2 against) while corrective waves are normally 3 legs (exceptions abound; ie, complex waves of abcde or abcxabc). In addition B waves can "overthrow" (higher high or lower low) but wave 4s are supposed to stop at the extreme of the previous wave 1. The true aspects of the wave analysis are how it measures human psychology (of traders and end users) in wave format and how certain principles are sacrosanct (w4/w1; w3 cant be the shortest wave; one wave will have an extension [usually w3 or 5] and the application of the rule of alternation between w2 and w4 [simple vs complex]). The fuzzy part is that there are usually alternate counts and the exceptions (like a B wave or running correction making a higher high) which complicate the potential scenarios. The most useful aspects is when you know that you should be at the end of a corrective move and about to start an impulse move or no matter the alternate count all point to the same conclusion. Other fuzzy parts is that most EW traders employ fibonacci #s and ratios in their analysis (and it is basic to EW ie, 5 up and 3 dn) but a) there are a number of ratios with no guarantee that any will turn the market (ie, .214, .382, .500, .618, & .786) and b) there are 'other' ratios (lucas #s, etc) to complicate use of the ratios. But they are useful when different ratios from different time frames align (.618 on an hourly with .214 on a daily correction with 1.618 counter trend impulse on a 15 min). As a whole the EW methodology is a template to view the market not a sacrosanct trading system. Again more art than science.

Anyone trading Gold with wave guru "Wrong Way Robert" [Prechter] across the past 10 years is broke today. His wave analysis might be great for satisfying the obsessions of the mind, but as a near-term price predictor, you might as well flip a coin. Deflationists like Prechter clearly underestimated the power of the printing press, along Bernanke's resolve to employ it. Even practitioners of traditional TA, chartistas like Clive Maund for example are continually being caught on the wrong side of a manipulated market.

Remember this one from July: Prechter Calls for Dow 1,000

For guidance, I'm looking more to underlying fundamentals, particularly as they relate to the cash market (physical). Speaking of which, backwardation made the mainstream today.....

Backwardation hits silver
From Herald News Services February 12, 2011

SHORTAGE . The tightest physical silver supplies in four years have tipped the U.S. silver futures market into backwardation this week, making near-term prices more expensive than more distant months. - More

Originally posted by OBE1
For guidance, I'm looking more to underlying fundamentals, particularly as they relate to the cash market (physical). Speaking of which, backwardation made the mainstream today.....

Backwardation hits silver
From Herald News Services February 12, 2011

SHORTAGE . The tightest physical silver supplies in four years have tipped the U.S. silver futures market into backwardation this week, making near-term prices more expensive than more distant months. - More

From that article: Warehouse stocks of the white metal have dropped to a four-year low on surging demand, while miners have hedged their future production.

I'm not really surprised. Isn't it a historical detail gilts always rise in uncertain times?



...gold is well over 1000 an oz, isn't that a record?

Originally posted by chocise
...gold is well over 1000 an oz, isn't that a record?

Some community notables don't think Gold will go sub-1000 again in their lifetimes. Of course most those guys are already in their 60's......like yours truly

reply to post by OBE1


I always thought gilts were more a long-term investment... so if you bought, say, 5 or 7 years ago you've certainly done well.

I was just looking at the more recent trends and it appears to have leveled a bit at around the 1300 level. A broader look shows an almost exponential rise. My guess would be it can't continue..., but then the world is becoming more & more uncertain... so m'be it will rise even more.

On another note, and something that Pritcher piece mentioned in its last paragraph was something about Armageddon... that if things did pan out badly no one would be around to cash in on anything!

Apple shares are going through the roof atm, btw.

...I wish I'd bought a load back in the 90s!