Why is China Against North Korea's Wealth Developing? Why be so Backward? , page 1

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Topic started on 19-1-2011 @ 07:02 PM by Liberal1984

This thread about China lending troops to NK, www.abovetopsecret.com...&addstar=1&on=10359423#pid10359423 is one example of how China supports North Korea “left, right, & centre”, but gets very little in return (in comparison to what it could do).

Obviously China fears the combination of anarchy (that historically usually come with revolution) plus the results of 60 years of NK producing & stockpiling (very real) WMD’s that any side-fraction could use in e.g. a North Korean civil war (as historically, civil wars don't happen, without revolution).

After all that's why the West did not topple Saddam in 1991 (because his WMD’s posed a real & credible, strategic threat to neighbouring ISteal). You could reason-intimidate Saddam but not all Iraq's tribes, religious groups, and the regions endless political groups.

But…
NK’s current leaders must fear the sight of a “court room”, even more than China fears a NK revolution (as a NK revolution is quite unlikely, to personally cost, the Chinese leaders anything much, at all).
So united against revolution China & NK should be; but why united against change?

The requirements of NK’s leadership not destabilise itself through reform (like Gorbachev) obviously mean it suits NK well to “go slow” on many reforms.

But China seems irrationally at ease seeing the same "broken Communist". Surely China wants…
1. Another capitalist economy it could trade with?
2. A North Korean, consumer class, to support & strengthen this economy?
3. Preferential trade treatment given to China (supposedly by North Korea own “free will”) (i.e. so China’s preferential treatment is internationally legal-acceptable, with China’s trading partners).

One way China could have good NK relations (whilst simultaneously encouraging NK’s leaders to be good to China) is entice NK’s leaders with the sincerest wealth protection, prosecution immunity, and bribery (wherever appropriate, of course!)
With one "stick" being: China standing ready to remind NK of the importance its continued access (through e.g. low goods taxation) to-from the Chinese market.
One would hope that if ever Chinese growth slowed North Korea could represents another South Korea (just one almost exclusively for China's benerfit).

I hope the conditions of NK’s (unrebellious) people can improve, the country disarms, and benerfits western markets plus China.

reply posted on 19-1-2011 @ 07:08 PM by StlSteve

North Korea is one of the most isolated countries, and they can't support themselves. They rely on China. So to China, they're kind of a burdon. If you remember, the first Wikileaks leaked that China was in agreement with the unification of North and South Korea (South being the dominant party). I can't see China continuing to pour money into the North, makes no sense.

reply posted on 20-1-2011 @ 08:10 PM by Liberal1984

Great points StIsSteve. If North Korea units with the South, it will benefit Chinese-Korean trade as both Korea’s will require imports to finance NK’s recovery.
China may even lend South Korea the cash it requires for goods it (mostly) buys from China! So I can understand why China supports reunification (especially given the local WMD’s it may eliminate).

However if North Korea continues “as is” (one thing it does very well) then every year is a wasted opportunity for China. As NK’s dependence should & could be a blessing for China’s economy: I.e. if only North Korea would pay market prices (for at least the vast majority of goods-services it requires). (I say “majority” given producing exports is itself a source of China growth & wealth creation).

So: China should stand permanently ready to offer all North Korean (government) individuals whatever their hearts desire (just so long North Korea itself, joins the world economy in ways that assist China’s wealth development –exports & trade).

edit on 090705 by Liberal1984 because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 21-1-2011 @ 05:47 AM by xpert11

reply to post by Liberal1984

While I like the argument you present would North Korea leaders not adopted the kind of capitalistic reforms that China did some time over the last twenty years ?

The North Korean regime has painted itself into a corner that the only way out for them is a war against South Korea .

reply posted on 21-1-2011 @ 03:23 PM by Freedom ERP

reply to post by Liberal1984

Obviously China fears the combination of anarchy (that historically usually come with revolution) plus the results of 60 years of NK producing & stockpiling (very real) WMD’s that any side-fraction could use in e.g. a North Korean civil war (as historically, civil wars don't happen, without revolution).

These are certainly some fears that China would have, but how does anarchy in NK materially impact China? More people trying to cross the border?
The WMDs are of greater concern and I would think that at least the PLA has a plan in place to secure these weapons, as I guess does South Korea and its allies.
Also, NK has acted as a buffer against the western influence of South Korea and China’s long border has countries that are not seen as being in line with the socialist People’s Republic, does it want another western country bordering? And if there is a military campaign with South Korea, in the longer run, I would bet on Korea becoming more western in its outlook and we all know what a economic power house South Korea is!

On a side bar, which I hope you will allow me to run with for a short while as I do think it does have relevance to the actions China might take. Has there been a much close relationship on the development of WMDs between China and NK. With China having to be seen as a mature member of the global community, what better place to continue to develop to and stock supplies of WMDs. And how NK funded its development been funding? Has China been funding WMD develop in NK? If this premise is accepted, then the WMDs in NK will be more secure, as China will want to prevent them falling in to the wrong hands, and revealing their history

After all that's why the West did not topple Saddam in 1991 (because his WMD’s posed a real & credible, strategic threat to neighbouring ISteal). You could reason-intimidate Saddam but not all Iraq's tribes, religious groups, and the regions endless political groups.

But…
NK’s current leaders must fear the sight of a “court room”, even more than China fears a NK revolution (as a NK revolution is quite unlikely, to personally cost, the Chinese leaders anything much, at all).
So united against revolution China & NK should be; but why united against change?

The requirements of NK’s leadership not destabilise itself through reform (like Gorbachev) obviously mean it suits NK well to “go slow” on many reforms.
But China seems irrationally at ease seeing the same "broken Communist".

But do we seriously believe that any of the NK ruling elite would survive a civil war or a military campaign to end up in a court. And just what would they be charged with? Crimes against Humanity? NK still enjoys the protection of China, that is the only reason that it remains a country.
I agree that we will not see any Gorbachev style reforms out of the current leadership in NK, nor do I see any reform changes with a change of leader.

Surely China wants…
1. Another capitalist economy it could trade with?
2. A North Korean, consumer class, to support & strengthen this economy?
3. Preferential trade treatment given to China (supposedly by North Korea own “free will”) (i.e. so China’s preferential treatment is internationally legal-acceptable, with China’s trading partners).

1) Not sure that a more Western leaning Korea would want to trade that much with the low cost economy of China. South Korea has a better and broader balanced economy that is not based on low wages.
2) Not going to happen in my life time as a NK consumer class would start to ask questions of the leadership and the Glorious Leader.
3) Could happed as part of the settlement after unification of Korea, not before as NK’s economy is not capable of paying for goods from China

One way China could have good NK relations (whilst simultaneously encouraging NK’s leaders to be good to China) is entice NK’s leaders with the sincerest wealth protection, prosecution immunity, and bribery (wherever appropriate, of course!)
With one "stick" being: China standing ready to remind NK of the importance its continued access (through e.g. low goods taxation) to-from the Chinese market.
One would hope that if ever Chinese growth slowed North Korea could represents another South Korea (just one almost exclusively for China's benerfit).

I hope the conditions of NK’s (unrebellious) people can improve, the country disarms, and benefits western markets plus China.

You have, to quote the saying “Hit the nail on the head” China does have the whip hand here and it is interesting to see in the press that the first country that the NK leadership goes to visit is China. For all its talk, NK is a satellite state of China, very much in the mould of USSR and the eastern Block countries of the Cold War era

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