Originally posted by dominicus
Unfortunately, economics is not my strong point in area of expertise.
Don't worry, this is the perfect time to be proud of not being an academic economist! When you get right down to brass tacks, being a neoclassical
economist ranks well below hod-carrier in terms of prestige. At least a hod-carrier adds some sort of value to the economy beyond obfuscation.
In the long run, the profession itself (at least as currently construed) is headed for the dustbin of academic history, where it can rot gently along
with golden oldies like phrenology.
However I do know US is due to hit the debt-limit-ceiling around March 31st, that the dollar already lost a large percent of its value in the last 24
The US has hit the debt limit many times and re-set it every time. This time will be no different, and it is not in and of itself a very significant
event in the grand scheme of things, beyond being just another straw piled up on the camel's back. As for the dollar decline, as others have noted
already in this thread, its certainly here and its not just for breakfast anymore. However, it is important to remember that as the value leaves the
dollar it will emerge somewhere else, or multiple somewheres else. Nobody knows for sure but there are plenty of opinions out there to explore. You
know what they say about opinions...something everyone has...
My question is, what do you think will be the order of events that will happen and what is the best way to prepare for it?
Stock up on canned goods? silver? gold? will the dollar completely collapse and then what? ew curreny? Barter system only for a while.
Personally I do not see a single "SHTF moment." Rather, consider the more likely scenario of a painful, drawn-out sideways grind with winners and
losers. There will be horrible catastrophes here and there, the bottom will lurch out of various places sickeningly and unexpectedly, but these are
likely to be local rather than global phenomena. Meanwhile, slowly, the fabric of general life and prosperity will coarsen for the vast majority in
the advanced economies, over a period of years or possibly several decades. Expectations will be managed downwards through overt and covert forms of,
shall we say, persuasion.
In the long run, the decline will probably resemble a modified (and hopefully less bleak) version of
So the outcome will depend on who you are, where you
are, what point in the future you are examining, and what you want to get out of life in the long run. This last point is not as frivolous as it
sounds -- one of the upsides of a decaying system is that you will no longer be bound so tightly to social consensus ideas of what is desirable in
life and how you "should" be spending your brief time in this world.
While bearing in mind that surprises and rude awakenings are part of life, I am not in actual fact anticipating a "mad max" type scenario any time in
the forseeable future...I am acting with the expectations that the basic mechanisms of society will wheeze along wearliy for the rest of the lifetimes
of most people reading this. There will be interruptions, delays, mistakes, irregularities, ineffeciencies, injustices...tragedies,
even -- but
somehow the rusty merry-go-round will keep squeeling and squoinking around and around.
Beyond that, I would gently remind the reader that it is not ethical, wise, or (ultimately) the slightest bit sane to either give or receive advice
regarding specific investments in a public forum like this.
edit on 1/27/11 by silent thunder because: (no reason given)