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ATS armchair economists ...so what do you think will happen next?

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posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 08:11 AM
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reply to post by SeekerofTruth101
 


Using gold to back the economy is a popular approach to restore integrity back into the system. Gold is a hard physical asset that can be moved around and used for trade with a long history as part of the economy. Like all other assets it does fluctuate in price and also has a demand in manufacturing. Another approach has been to include all assets for backing the economy, land, buildings, mines, ect... For a global economy I can see it working if it back by nothing. The economy is more of a ledger sheet of who contributed what and how much someone has to trade. The only value in money is the value the people give it, people see value in the paper note or the digital numbers in their bank account. It is these notes and numbers that allow people to trade, not how the back end is structured and the banks store this wealth. With this digital economy trade can still flow, being international everyone is on the same playing field. What is most important is the integrity, strength, persistence and capability behind the system to limit corruption and allow capitalism to do its work.




posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 12:04 PM
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reply to post by AlreadyGone
 

Thanks AlreadyGone,
This is exactly what I was looking for is to get a frontline perspective from somebody who is out there dealing with the general public.

But also from theoretical economists and what history says about other countries who have been where we are now and the results after wards.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 12:09 PM
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Modernsense

This is a fellow ATSers blog.

He has written several blogs on the subject, and they are a bit optimistic, but his facts seem to support his optimistic view.

The US is a major driving force behind the world's economy, the vast majority of our debt is internal debt, it isn't looming over our head from China like the MSM would have you believe. In fact, much of our debt is related to military trusts and social security trusts.

Personally, I think the whole system needs a good healthy crash to help us reset with more realistic expectations. I feel the entire economy is on a massive bubble, but people more educated than myself disagree, so I hope they are correct!



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 01:24 PM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


The blog by Modernsense does come across as a realistic assessment. The party divisions already make any decision by congress hard enough. Throw in a curve ball like the economy and the debates would be endless. If Ron Paul is able to craft a plan with his enquiry then it might help keep the debates on track. The international pressure to avoid default is high. The international community would have to view America as gone rouge to abandon it, the consequences would not be pretty. The Fed is going to have to take some heat for the situation of the economy, its current policy is applying lots of pressure to inflation, its current structure is contributing a lot of debt.

As for the main options for congress, agreement on expenses is where the biggest focus should be applied. Raising the debt ceiling is a step towards going rogue, if China and Japan release all their USD on the international market, inflation will suddenly jump very high as other nations also abandon USD to get out while the going is good. To go bankrupt is akin to a deceleration of war, immense chaos will follow.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 01:32 PM
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reply to post by kwakakev
 


The Quantitative Easing I and II by the Fed was already a major slap in the face to our foreign investors. They are sitting on large investments of American cash, and all of a sudden we decide to increase the supply by 30%?!?!?!?

Intentional overnight inflation to stabilize the economy? And they had plenty of other options.

Anyhow, he might be correct that the world cannot afford to let the US drop into depression, but then again most of the world is in a similarly dire circumstance. Russia just came out of a deep depression, dominoes in the EU continue to topple and China is highly dependent on US consumption. If the US dips, there is no one to bail us out!



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 02:40 PM
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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
reply to post by unityemissions
 



I beg to differ. Just as many correctly predicted the last "hit", many are forecasting the next "hit" based on ...well, being knowledgeable and having common sense.

Peak cheap oil is what broke this economy. It was only one factor, but it was what did us in.


I disagree.

I don't think oil had much to do with this last "crash" of the economy. It was all the banks, home market, and wall street.

And as far as I know...the majority didn't see it coming at all.


If you did...then you must be a rich rich man right now.


Oil was a way for them to turn the screws a bit on top of all the bank grabs and housing balloon. Not to mention the government forcing takeovers of related industries. I know quite a few poor people who saw it coming. Oft times, they are quite a bit more sensitive than those with regular careers.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 03:43 PM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 




Anyhow, he might be correct that the world cannot afford to let the US drop into depression, but then again most of the world is in a similarly dire circumstance. Russia just came out of a deep depression, dominoes in the EU continue to topple and China is highly dependent on US consumption. If the US dips, there is no one to bail us out!


Yeah, the world is a mess. China is giving the impression of having the most integrity with an economy, have not been through all the detail though. International stabilisation of the economy will sort out a lot of problems, probably make a few more, but if it is done in an open and transparent manner it will limit a lot of the concerns sceptical nations and individuals will have. It will be a tough nut to crack as many wealthy entities will not want to lose any ground in the deals that will need to be made for a single global currency. Also have big concerns if it goes the same way as the Euro with a covert back end and forceful implementation. The most effective international agreements have been where all the nations agree on equal terms without duress.



posted on Jan, 19 2011 @ 05:00 AM
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think hell on earth is approaching quickly. there is going to be a horrendous dieoff of good and bad people. but this is a hell that can be ameliorated. im a lazy writer so the following may look disjointed, have patience. if we share 95+% of our dna with chimps, it might explain why so many choose to think on a low level. if you want to learn about how the human animal is going to react to societal collapse, and i think this is a basic, read THE LUCIFER PRINCIPLE. human nature caused this, and human nature ,when unrefined by rationality, will remain our worst enemy. this event may be somewhat engineered, but the engineers were foolish to think they could control events very long. peak oil, ecocollapse, etc. are also irrelevant now. i hope large governments(gangs) around the world collapse. we will see the rise of thousands of small gangs-kingdoms. what to do? learn to kill takers and hurters without qualm. nurture and trade with good people who respect the rights of other people. since the only true king is honesty, kindness, and justice, isn.t anyone who refuses to initiate force against others and their property doing god's work? stop being chimps! redefine your definition of food. fishing worms and dandelion roots are in many locales ubiquitous.



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 04:52 AM
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a copy of the book THE LUCIFER PRINCIPLE may not be easy to find. for those interested, reading the reviews on the AMAZON website, good and bad, can sometimes teach one quite a bit.



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 05:20 AM
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Historically, the answer seems to be, rather unfortunately, another world war. The tried and tested master reset switch to whittle down the lines of unemployed and get the war spending and manufacturing ramped up again.

They've done it twice before - by they, I mean the big banking interests who always fund the big conflicts from the comfort of a neutral country with a get out of jail free card that's valid everywhere.

Of course, war also takes peoples minds off the domestic problems for a while. At least, it used to! The internet might throw a spanner in the works, what with the access to unfiltered and unofficial reporting, but that can be closed down and the domestic dissenters labeled as dangerous subversives and dealt with.


Different eras, same playbook ever time.

I guess what I am saying here is that we cannot fix the economies because we, as ordinary people, have absolutely no control over the issuing of the money or how it is spent. The democratic political system is a sham and a rigged game, with the big players all selected and allowed to hold power only after pledging their support for the money masters. Debt = control, and that is by design. No economic model dreamed up by academics is ever going to change anything unless the control of currencies is taken back from the international bankers. Discussion, therefore, becomes a moot point.



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 12:06 PM
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reply to post by Britguy
 


No. WAR is NOT the answer.

What ALL humanity wants is stability, to achieve their common aspirations in lilfe.

Today, with the financial turmoil caused by the greed few who never thought beyond the length of their nose, we are experiencing the chaos and destruction to the economies caused by them.

The solution to our financial chaos, is not further reliance on the trust of paper promises, but on gold. May the guys who came out with the paper promises solutions during the Bretton Woods talks be brought to justice for their crime to humanity, which made many suffer

The concept that money can be backed by a nation that is strong enough to support the world is a lie. Nations come and go every century, the resources and military might of a nation, including human capital resources, wax and wane naturally, made worse when such accounting of a nation's wealth is at best daunting and at worse delusive. Figures can always be altered anytime.

But gold is only one single resource, and even though it rise or fall just as naturally, it is but one transparent assest readily acceptable by the world. It is only one single financial instrument understood by all, young or old.

Thus if the gold standard, not gold itself, is to replace the 'currency' standard based on complex and complicated measurement of one single nation's wealth, then more will place trust upon the system as long as such movements are transparent and open for all to see, and stability in the markets will result. Then there will be no need for wars where precious lives of one and one's love ones will be lost.



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 12:23 PM
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the most immediate thing will be the Options expiration on 26 Jan '11...

a lot of silver and gold PM shorts will be extended... expect the slow avalanche in PM prices
to continue despite more buying in India, China and the East Asian lands.
gold should retreat to below 1320...perhaps slowly down to 1260 during the next 6 weeks option period.


my advice is for all interested in PMs to buy all the way down... because this depressing of price
for PMs is being orchestrated by the monied manipulators.
i expect that Silver will return to the $22-25 range, so i have a cashiers check ready to buy a roll
or two of American or Canadian 1 oz. silver coins.

silvergoldbull.com...
www.bullionbullscanada.com...:precious-metals-default-scenarios&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid =131


(note: the seller linked above is not a recomendation, its meant as one example only of what to look for...)



the next thing to happen=== because 2011 is Year of the Rabbit=== is GB will win over PIT in SBowl



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 12:33 PM
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Hi, Like the thread!

In one word WATER! well 2 words actually, Drinking water!

this will be the number asset sold on the FTSE within the next few years.

Its probable that it will cause us all more problems than oil has.



posted on Jan, 23 2011 @ 12:46 PM
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All the bad debt that has now been bought by the US treasury will destroy the US economy by interest alone.

This will lead to a game of pass the Dollar parcel in the global currencies market as nations seek to shed their Dollar holdings by acquiring real assets with them.

The Dollar will collapse as a world currency, interest rates will soar, inflation will make the US Dollar worthless in the USA itself.

A new currency will arise from the ashes.

Remember the Amero..?

Cosmic...



posted on Jan, 27 2011 @ 09:37 AM
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Originally posted by dominicus
Unfortunately, economics is not my strong point in area of expertise.

Don't worry, this is the perfect time to be proud of not being an academic economist! When you get right down to brass tacks, being a neoclassical economist ranks well below hod-carrier in terms of prestige. At least a hod-carrier adds some sort of value to the economy beyond obfuscation.

In the long run, the profession itself (at least as currently construed) is headed for the dustbin of academic history, where it can rot gently along with golden oldies like phrenology.



However I do know US is due to hit the debt-limit-ceiling around March 31st, that the dollar already lost a large percent of its value in the last 24 months...

The US has hit the debt limit many times and re-set it every time. This time will be no different, and it is not in and of itself a very significant event in the grand scheme of things, beyond being just another straw piled up on the camel's back. As for the dollar decline, as others have noted already in this thread, its certainly here and its not just for breakfast anymore. However, it is important to remember that as the value leaves the dollar it will emerge somewhere else, or multiple somewheres else. Nobody knows for sure but there are plenty of opinions out there to explore. You know what they say about opinions...something everyone has...



My question is, what do you think will be the order of events that will happen and what is the best way to prepare for it?

Stock up on canned goods? silver? gold? will the dollar completely collapse and then what? ew curreny? Barter system only for a while.


Personally I do not see a single "SHTF moment." Rather, consider the more likely scenario of a painful, drawn-out sideways grind with winners and losers. There will be horrible catastrophes here and there, the bottom will lurch out of various places sickeningly and unexpectedly, but these are likely to be local rather than global phenomena. Meanwhile, slowly, the fabric of general life and prosperity will coarsen for the vast majority in the advanced economies, over a period of years or possibly several decades. Expectations will be managed downwards through overt and covert forms of, shall we say, persuasion.

In the long run, the decline will probably resemble a modified (and hopefully less bleak) version of catabolic collapse. So the outcome will depend on who you are, where you are, what point in the future you are examining, and what you want to get out of life in the long run. This last point is not as frivolous as it sounds -- one of the upsides of a decaying system is that you will no longer be bound so tightly to social consensus ideas of what is desirable in life and how you "should" be spending your brief time in this world.

While bearing in mind that surprises and rude awakenings are part of life, I am not in actual fact anticipating a "mad max" type scenario any time in the forseeable future...I am acting with the expectations that the basic mechanisms of society will wheeze along wearliy for the rest of the lifetimes of most people reading this. There will be interruptions, delays, mistakes, irregularities, ineffeciencies, injustices...tragedies, even -- but somehow the rusty merry-go-round will keep squeeling and squoinking around and around.

Beyond that, I would gently remind the reader that it is not ethical, wise, or (ultimately) the slightest bit sane to either give or receive advice regarding specific investments in a public forum like this.


edit on 1/27/11 by silent thunder because: (no reason given)




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