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ATS armchair economists ...so what do you think will happen next?

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posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 02:44 PM
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Unfortunately, economics is not my strong point in area of expertise.

However I do know US is due to hit the debt-limit-ceiling around March 31st, that the dollar already lost a large percent of its value in the last 24 months, recession, nwo, and a bunch of stuff going on.

My question is, what do you think will be the order of events that will happen and what is the best way to prepare for it?

Stock up on canned goods? silver? gold? will the dollar completely collapse and then what? ew curreny? Barter system only for a while.

Please do share.

(mods if this is in the wrong forum, please do move)




posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 02:51 PM
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It depends on what the news says. If the news people start being gloomy and stuff, things will go down quick. If they keep their mouths shut and report the good things, then things will keep getting better.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:01 PM
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The economy is teetering on the edge, which is what they want.

As long as oil prices rise, so will everything else. Rising oil prices is a key indicator at the value of the dollar because oil (in most countries) is traded using the dollar as the primary currency for trade.

If the value of the dollar continues to fall, which it will because of the enormous amounts of cash being printed and put into the system (which means more dollars, thus your dollars are worth less), oil prices will continue to rise. As oil prices rise, the cost of every business on earth to do business rises. It's cyclical, and the end result is that everything you can possibly think of to buy is going to increase.

Add to this the fact that China is cutting back it's rare earth metals distribution and some wicked weather around the world that has devastated food supplies and I say right around April-June, we could be in free-fall.

Precious metals like silver and gold, forget about them... who is going to buy them when TSHTF? Are you going to tote them around instead of food and water? I would say make sure you have enough means of food, water and medicines to last 3-6 months in case of ANY disaster, economic or solar flare, etc.

Just my two cents... and given the signs lately, I'd stock up NOW.

~Namaste



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:04 PM
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Every day more news comes out in favor of a dollar collapse. At this point in the game it looks all too clear that the day of the dollar is rapidly drawing to an end. I would suggest for anyone that hasn't already gotten themselves at the very least a small position in a precious metal to do so if you live in the states. I would also recommend a decent seed stock. Not saying go out and spend hundreds of dollars in seeds mind you. A couple of seasons of seed would be sufficient and would only be a set back of around $50-$100 for a basic supply of seed if you bargain shop.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:05 PM
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reply to post by gnosticquasar
 



It depends on what the news says. If the news people start being gloomy and stuff, things will go down quick. If they keep their mouths shut and report the good things, then things will keep getting better.

So your basically saying that what-ever MSM says is what creates reality?

And yet MSM never talked about the recession and demise of the US and yet its obviously here.

Wouldn't you at least agree that what-ever is going to happen will happen regardless of what the news says?



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:09 PM
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Debt ceiling will be raised. Fed will keep churning out piles of money buying up our own debt. Last I read it was 300 billion a month. Inflation will skyrocket and already is as anybody can tell who shops for groceries or buys gas. OPEC says they won't up production to increase stores and we can't drill anywere over here so the wheels are in motion for a big collapse. Europe will go down first. We got about a year or so I'd say. When Spain goes under look out.

Of note I read last week where China has started buying up some EU debt. Not sure what to make of that.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:14 PM
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I don't believe in a SHTF economic situation happening unless it's 100% engineered. Why? It's ludicrous, that's why. Everything is in place to have things running smoothly for a while longer. The only thing truly lacking in 2011 is credit. The abstract system is designed to collapse, and we're simply at the end of it's course.

IF there is a collapse, it will be engineered. IF chaos is allowed to ensue, it will be short lived. WHY? Because if it's allowed to last too long, even TPTB will lose their control over society. They don't truly want that. So IF chaos is allowed, it will be to serve a purpose of further integration of planetary control. I don't necessarily disagree with it at this point, either.

Besides the abstract systems, the environment is getting to be a bit too out of whack, and our agricultural methods are backwards, imo. Whether it's being engineered, or not, a Malthusian type of collapse seems to be heading it's way to 3rd world countries first, and perhaps 2nd and 1st world countries later on. If this is allowed to run it's course, based on our current trajectory, civilization will collapse, and I don't think anyone truly wants that.

So then what does this mean for the economy? Well, it means that we're likely going to continue to see a decline in standards of living mostly the world round. It means prices of practically everything will go up as oil continues to skyrocket. Once it reaches a certain point, there will be another dip in the economy, and the supply/demand will balance out once again, just as it did in 2008 when we entered into this Depression. So expect times to be rough for the next few years at a minimum. In all truth, we could be at the peak of modern civilization right now! So go out and have some drinks with friends and get laid. It's not as if people are doing much to change this mess we're in, so what of it? What will be will be.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:18 PM
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"So go out and have some drinks with friends and get laid"

I don't think my wife will go for me doing that. LOL.

I think the whole thing is just laying the groundwork for a world currency. EU and dollar collapse to the point "they" will have to come save the day with a world currency for all.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:20 PM
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reply to post by dominicus
 


I'm saying that the MSM reports molehills, embellishes them, and then they turn into mountains because people get freaked about by what's being reported.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 03:27 PM
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Recovery is always slower than collapse.

The economy will continue to slowly and gradually improve...people will loudly and increasingly say it is failing.

Jobs will slowly come back...houses will slowly be bought off the market...until such a time where another unforeseen event will cause the economy to take a hit.


This is what the economy does...there is no predicting the next "hit" the economy will take...all we know for now is that it is very slowly and very gradually improving from the last "hit".



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 04:03 PM
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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
This is what the economy does...there is no predicting the next "hit" the economy will take...all we know for now is that it is very slowly and very gradually improving from the last "hit".


I beg to differ. Just as many correctly predicted the last "hit", many are forecasting the next "hit" based on ...well, being knowledgeable and having common sense.

Peak cheap oil is what broke this economy. It was only one factor, but it was what did us in. As the prices in gasoline and commodities went through the roof from the 2005-2008 period, people stopped consuming as much. Because we live in a consumer economy, the result was a collapse. Because we're the reserve currency for the world, the rest of the economies tanked to various degrees. This was all very predictable, and was done so by many.

Because we entered into a recession, supply/demand necessitated that the price in oil drop. It did. Because it dropped so rapidly, prices of gas went down. Because of this, the economy improved ever so slightly. Now that demand is back up, prices of practically everything goes up......it's another cycle.

We're already predicted to enter the next wave of cheap peak oil pretty soon, and it's pretty much noticeable that it's already started. So basically, there's a high probability that triple digit crude oil/barrel will lead to the next "hit", I'd say 50% chance within the next 12 months, and 90% chance within 24 months.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 04:10 PM
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reply to post by unityemissions
 



I beg to differ. Just as many correctly predicted the last "hit", many are forecasting the next "hit" based on ...well, being knowledgeable and having common sense.

Peak cheap oil is what broke this economy. It was only one factor, but it was what did us in.


I disagree.

I don't think oil had much to do with this last "crash" of the economy. It was all the banks, home market, and wall street.

And as far as I know...the majority didn't see it coming at all.


If you did...then you must be a rich rich man right now.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 04:31 PM
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There is NO recovery. There is no solution but one. That will not be done so....................

The last "supposed" increase in jobs was a lie. Ooooh one month increase in jobs. Did that have to do with an automatic adjustment in the seasonal numbers?

Tell me, if you have legal immigration of over 100,000 people per month, not to mention the illegals, you also have an increase in the workforce due to normal population increase, how can a one month gain of 100k jobs going to do anything?

The stimulus funds that are being used to prop up the market, plus the quantitative easing used for the same purpose, is only kicking the problem down the road. It is also causing rampant inflation. Do not pay attention to the CPI, it does not include such things as food and energy. Our current inflation, IMO, is at about 25%. That is a lowball figure. With inflation skyhigh and interest rates sky low, what does this tell you? Nobody wants the dollar, it is becoming worthless.

Now, has anyone noticed the recent attacks on private colleges and the mentioning of the student loan bubble. This is another one to watch. It is a ploy to take out the private colleges.

Read up at Zero Hedge

They have links to all the best market sites on the net and their articles are pretty good. Lots of people that work the wall street comment there. I find the comments highly informative.



posted on Jan, 17 2011 @ 04:36 PM
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reply to post by OutKast Searcher
 


its all a game. its all set up. we the people spent too much time in slumber with chains placed on us "keeping us down", not knowing how to play the "game". its a shame we didn't listen to JFK when he made his speech about secret societies!

here's a couple of interesting quotes-

Letter written from London by the Rothschilds to their New York agents introducing their banking method into America: "The few who can understand the system will be either so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class, while, on the other hand, that great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that Capital derives from the system, will bear its burden without complaint and, perhaps, without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests."


Sir Josiah Stamp 1880 – 1941- If you want to remain slaves of the bankers and pay for the costs of your own slavery, Let them continue to create money and control the Nation’s credit!

FEAR is a tireless Master. That whips one's mind into submission. FEAR equals Mental Slavery. "None but oursleves can free our minds"-Bob Marley... No man may have 2 masters. For he will hate one, and serve the other. Its just a choice. FEAR or LOVE!!! Who will you serve?

every recession we've had has been engineered!

here's an insight into how the latest one got going- www.washingtonpost.com...

just before 9/11 the fbi said white collar fraud had become an epidemic.. and then conveniently they mblew the 3 towers and diverted all resources to "fighting terrorism"...

there is no good, there is no bad, only experience.. lets learn from Our mistakes!!

peace out.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 01:57 AM
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As for what will happen next, the future is uncertain and anything can happen. There are many competing interests and without transparency to the system people are left playing pin the tail on the donkey. Some current trends include: USD for oil trading is getting replaced by Yuan, debates are going on about an international currency, US economy is a train wreck waiting to happen.

What I would like to see, Federal Reserve and IRS go back into government hands, these too big to fail either fail or stand on their own feet. A lot more accountability and transparency is build into the system. A new international currency is developed based on combining all the different national currencies. This will put an end to all the conflict on the international money markets and make international trade easier. A lot of over sight and review is built into the system to limit corruption. An end is put to the secret organisations running the economy and a more sustainable model built.

When a currency falls it does a lot of damage to the community as trade stops and distribution is hampered. I know there are a lot of things wrong with economies all around the world. It is better to fix them rather than pull them down and try to start again. If the way the economy works and where money comes from cannot be explained to a primary school child then something is wrong.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 06:20 AM
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Which is more valuable...an ounce of gold at $1500 or 1500 cans of food at $1 ?

If you are hungry...which is worth more?

If you are hungry, can't find any at the store, ...which is more valuable?

Point is, if you missed the jump in gold when it was $300-$600... don't waste your money now...buy food.

All of the hard commodities at my farm store are going up...50lb corn was 6.5 this summer is pushing 9.00...scratch for chickens is now 10.50... all my gates have gone up..again. Anything corn-wheat-steel based has jumped... ie tractor implements, fencing, fertilizers...

this means higher food costs to the consumer.

We are also seeing an increase in " do it yourselfers"...people that have finally realized what is happening and are taking up gardening, small live stock, heating with wood... for the first time. There's a lot of people riding horses these days...not just for pleasure either.

The consensus from my customers and staff...continued rise in prices and rapid inflation, continued decline in economy and jobs, rise in gas and grocery prices... basically all the fun stuff your grand parents talked about concerning the depression.

Crime on the rise...we sold out of gun safes at Xmas and have back orders through february as they come in... we just got 4 this past week and are gone.

People are buying hand pumps and gas stabilizer for gas and fuel storage...

Folks...if you are not ready, get ready now as best you can...start with the basics. We are not a survival store but a feed and seed and hardware store...and we are seeing a lot of sane, business type people with the SUV or soccer mom with the mini-van buying chickens and gunsafes and fencing and traps for squirrels and rabbits...

Lastly and listen closely...our store is not too far from the NC/VA line...Virginia State Legislature this past week seriously considered and is lkooking at proposals to COIN IT'S OWN CURRENCY IN THE EVENT THE US DOLLAR COLLAPSES... not a bunch of paranoid wackos on a fringe site but the VA LEGISLATURE. What does this say about the coming year?



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 06:28 AM
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slowly but surely imperceivable to the naked eye, the dollar will continue to lose value. you can monitor this via the gold price. also countries will stop having faith in the dollar (china, iran). the boat will be sinking but the directors will be rearranging the chairs and the band will continue playing a la titanic. they are pulling the string but can't yank too hard. liberals are being fed the lie that the economy is getting better so they must feign success.



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 06:30 AM
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reply to post by AlreadyGone
 


regardless of the gold price it is still a safer investment than stocks, plus there's always poor man's gold (silver) and canned food goes bad you need dehydrated food that lasts years and don't forget to have a supply of seeds to grow a garden or just a garden for that matter nature's grocery store



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 07:24 AM
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Economists are no more accurate than a crystal ball gazing gypsy. If they had been accurate in predictions, none of what we are suffering today would have happened. They are good at only looking at past statistics to see a trend. But to use such a trend as a future for modelling is ignorance at best and disaster at worst, for there is more than just numbers that does the talking. The players have to be taken into account.

And China is the biggest player. They are caught in a trap of their own making by buying US debt without actually researching into what they had bought, or simply ignored the wiser men around them. With a trillion dollars of US debt, they stand to lose billions once the US dollar tanks.

To fight back, they will attempt to make their yuan weaker to boost exports, accept only US dollars in trade, to drive up the dollar. But thanks to the fed, who will pump more dollars into the market, what China will end up with is more worthless paper later on. To rise the yuan is to limit their exports, another no-no for the CCP.

The only hope for the commies, whom are the 'johnny came lately' in the financial markets, is to buy up whatever debts other country has with their US dollars, in the hopes of aquiring more land holdings without conquest when US, Europe and the rest of the world tanks.

Oil producers are stuck with the US dollar. As it is already near worthless, they will demand more US dollars in order to make up for the loss in value of the dollar. As the price of oil rises, demand slows. They too are stuck.

Many had presumed an NWO dollar will be introduced. They are right, but it will not be papers again. The only rational solution is to go back to the gold standard. Print money only based on the gold holdings a country has.

USA will have to pay its debts, but those debts are based on dollars and not gold. It was supposed to hold the most gold in the world, and should be able to pay off using gold as its price is relatively high today, provided there truly is gold. If there is no gold, then it is high time to pay off the debts using one's GDP, resources or raising taxes on the rich.

As for the common man's survival, austerity measures will be in place. Many venture capitalists will call it a day until the gold standard is recalled, to ensure they get their money's worth and stability. Meaning there will not be much jobs avaliable.

Without jobs, most will not be able to buy food. And food producers will no longer take US dollars, but only gold or paper backed by gold. It's a grim picture, and the way out is for our leaders to implement a stable currency today, based on gold, the sooner the more will survive.

A one world currency, something hated by many, but a neccessity. But not one with fear, so long as it is backed by gold and not worthless paper promises such as those used by the feds.


edit on 18-1-2011 by SeekerofTruth101 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 18 2011 @ 07:31 AM
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It's an extremely complex area, mainly because those in power keep moving the goal posts.

The media reports things to keep a positive spin. They say things like "employment improved in the last quarter..." while not mentioning that the government hired ten thousand people for one thing or another, or they redefined the definition of "employed", or that it may have improved in the last quarter by a thousand or two, but that it's still at depression era levels.

One thing to really pay attention to is inflation.

In the UK they're reporting "higher than expected" inflation over December. They're blaming the cold weather. But when you consider the floods going on around the world, this all affects agriculture and the supply of foods. So although some are suggesting it's momentary, certain things will get worse because we haven't even seen the global economic affects of the flooding in Australia yet, for example.

The economic situation is destined to get worse with millions of people experiencing real hardship over the coming months. And that is one of the most powerful catalysts for social instability.
So while the economy might suffer and your finances might be a lot tighter, that's not the primary concern. The reaction of the people toward government will be the primary concern.

Now imagine that, while WikiLeaks is releasing data on certain well-known people illegally avoiding paying tax. It won't matter so much if it's just a few celebrities, they'll just loose their careers and spend a few weeks in court. But if any other names on that list are elected individuals, there will likely be riots.

Can you imagine the anger if a president or prime minister is on that list, involved in tax avoidance while implementing cuts and increasing our taxes?!

While we should all be monitoring the economic changes, we should be thinking further ahead and considering how that might change the social stability of our countries.



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