Comet Elenin is coming!

Originally posted by UKTruth
I guess the only difference is that I accept that what we know today has a significant probability of being wrong,

And that is where I strongly disagree. Orbital mechanics, in particular the orbit we have currently calculated for Elenin, does not have a significant probability of being wrong.

You have not provided much to back up your certainty on this subject, only opinion.

I'm not the one making the incredible claim. Here, some facts for you. Here is every single astrometric reading of Elenin's position over time. Just type in "C/2010 X1" (case sensitive) and click "get observations." As you can see, the orbit is correct.
www.minorplanetcenter.net...

Prior to that point I am sure, given your posts, you would have called it a planet and completely dismissed any notion that it was not. A short time later, you would have been proven wrong.

I did not miss your point. Pluto did not change, and it was long debated whether it should be called a planet or not. The only thing that changed was the classification system, a change which itself proved how effective science is at incorporating new research and basing classification on facts, not speculation. You choose to ignore the current classification system and even take an arrogant position of superiority, calling it "wrong" if the criteria ever change. You just proved my point about you; you wish to ignore terminology and the meanings of words and use it however you want because the criteria has changed in the past. That's not how things work in the real world, but if you want to call cars go-carts I won't stop you, I'll simply advise you how irrational you're being. Don't expect others to follow along either.

**ATTENTION**

The staff ask that all off-topic and rude remarks stop here. Moving forward please discuss the topic, not each other.

Please review the following links:

Mod Note: Terms & Conditions of Use – Please Review This Link.

Mod Note: Courtesy is Mandatory – Please Review Link.

YOU are responsible for your own posts.

Moving forward all posts that do not fall within the Terms and Conditions will be subject to removal. Any continued violations after post removals may result in a temporary or permanent loss of posting privileges.

Thank You

ATS Staff

reply to post by tothetenthpower


thank you!!!

Originally posted by Artorius
reply to post by tothetenthpower

 

thank you!!!

Let me say it again. An asteroid, by definition, lacks sufficient mass to gravitationally perturb Elenin onto a collision course with earth. Show me an object high enough in mass to put Elenin on a collision course, but low enough that it does not have hydrostatic equilibrium. If you can do that I will never post on this forum ever again, furthermore you will have proof that Elenin really could be "coming" for an impact. Sound like a good deal?

Originally posted by pressure

MABUS is SUDAM in the mirror, who waskilled by bush....

Mabus code was discovered years ago to be the 3 headed beast, SudaM, MAd U.S., and
(Wgbus h) gW bush

reply to post by ngchunter

And that is where I strongly disagree. Orbital mechanics, in particular the orbit we have currently calculated for Elenin, does not have a significant probability of being wrong.

I was referring to science in general.

I'm not the one making the incredible claim. Here, some facts for you. Here is every single astrometric reading of Elenin's position over time. Just type in "C/2010 X1" (case sensitive) and click "get observations." As you can see, the orbit is correct.
www.minorplanetcenter.net...

I have not made any claims - other than science is often wrong. You're falling into the trap of translating words to suit your argument. A common failing.

I did not miss your point. Pluto did not change, and it was long debated whether it should be called a planet or not. The only thing that changed was the classification system, a change which itself proved how effective science is at incorporating new research and basing classification on facts, not speculation. You choose to ignore the current classification system and even take an arrogant position of superiority, calling it "wrong" if the criteria ever change. You just proved my point about you; you wish to ignore terminology and the meanings of words and use it however you want because the criteria has changed in the past. That's not how things work in the real world, but if you want to call cars go-carts I won't stop you, I'll simply advise you how irrational you're being. Don't expect others to follow along either.

edit on 22-3-2011 by ngchunter because: (no reason given)

Pluto was regarded by science as a planet up until a new classification system was put in place due to new learnings. It may have been debated by some, but you can't have it both ways. Even now the classification system is debated by some, and yet you assuredly stated that Pluto was dwarf planet in your earlier post. I find it perfectly acceptable to speculate that the classification of an asteroid will also change in time, maybe due to the discovery of new more massive 'asteroids' in the future, or perhaps in time due to the electric comet evidence, which seriously calls into question our understanding of comets. The best physical evidence we have is that they are in fact rocks.

You're constant references to 'others following along' is somewhat tiresome. I noted that you did this to Puterman also. Just to reiterate, I find him significantly easier to follow and understand than you.

In summary, whilst improbable, it is certainly the case that the orbit of Elenin could be perturbed prior to reaching earth. It can never be stated as fact that it wont.

Planetary geology : The concept of hydrostatic equilibrium has also become important in determining whether an astronomical object is a planet, dwarf planet, or small solar system body. According to the definition of planet adopted by the International Astronomical Union in 2006, planets and dwarf planets are objects that have sufficient gravity to overcome their own rigidity and assume hydrostatic equilibrium. Sometimes this means a spheroid. However, in the cases of moons in synchronous orbit, near unidirectional tidal forces create a scalene ellipsoid, and the dwarf planet Haumea also appears to be ellipsoidal due to its rapid rotation. Since the terrestrial planets and dwarf planets (and likewise the larger satellites, like the Moon and Io) have rough surfaces and so are not in perfect equilibrium, this definition evidently has some flexibility, but as of yet a specific means of quantifying an object's shape by this standard has not been announced. The amount of leeway afforded the definition could affect the classification of the asteroid Vesta, which appears to have solidified while in hydrostatic equilibrium but to have subsequently been significantly deformed by a large impact.[1]

Note the last sentence. I wonder are there other asteroids we haven't found yet lurking in the asteroid belt, perhaps even with a greater mass?

Interesting to note though that the classification based on hydrostatic equilibrium doesn't quite fit all observations perfectly. Now there's a shocker.

Originally posted by UKTruth
I was referring to science in general.

And I'm referring to the actual topic of Elenin specifically. If I'm going to be banned I'm not going to be banned for getting off-topic.

I have not made any claims - other than science is often wrong.

Yes or no, do you think it's plausible that science wrong about whether Elenin will hit us or not?

You're falling into the trap of translating words to suit your argument. A common failing.

No, I'm giving you the benefit of a doubt that you're referring to the topic at hand. I'm done here if all we're going to do is go back and forth over vague generalities unrelated to Elenin.

Pluto was regarded by science as a planet up until a new classification system was put in place due to new learnings. It may have been debated by some, but you can't have it both ways. Even now the classification system is debated by some, and yet you assuredly stated that Pluto was dwarf planet in your earlier post.

It is a dwarf planet. You either accept the current meanings of the terms or you accept that others will not agree or go along with your meanings and do not assume that they will know what you're talking about when you use the terms inappropriately.

I find it perfectly acceptable to speculate that the classification of an asteroid will also change in time,

If you wish to ignore the classification of the term asteroid that is your business, but as it stands an asteroid is by definition not massive enough to gravitationally perturb elenin onto a collision course with earth.

In summary, whilst improbable, it is certainly the case that the orbit of Elenin could be perturbed prior to reaching earth. It can never be stated as fact that it wont.

I note that you left off the words "by an asteroid" there, which is how we got onto this argument in the first place.

Originally posted by UKTruth
Note the last sentence.

Note that leeway does not mean the mass could be just anything. Vesta is an object whose shape is somewhere between having or not having hydrostatic equilibrium. Ceres, however, is clearly above that mass cutoff and clearly has hydrostatic equilibrium, yet even it could not put elenin on a collision course with earth by perturbing it.

And I'm referring to the actual topic of Elenin specifically. If I'm going to be banned I'm not going to be banned for getting off-topic.

Its relevant because my point is that there is a history of scientific 'certainties' being proven incorrect. I speculate that the current certainties as to why Elenin cant possibly hit us could also be incorrect.

Yes or no, do you think it's plausible that science wrong about whether Elenin will hit us or not?

I think it is possible . Why? You mentioned Ceres in your follow up post - if we had this conversation five short years ago, Ceres would have been an asteroid. It's only our meaningless classification that has changed it. Regardless, our classification has not changed Ceres one little bit. It's still there in the asteroid belt and looks the same. Now what if we haven't yet discovered something tucked away in the asteroid belt even bigger than Ceres? Something big enough to perturb the orbit of a comet flying close by? Is it possible we haven't found something that big? I say yes - although unlikely.

It is a dwarf planet. You either accept the current meanings of the terms or you accept that others will not agree or go along with your meanings and do not assume that they will know what you're talking about when you use the terms inappropriately.

I accept what I chose to accept - that's my right. Personally I don't see why I have to accept a classification that continues to change. One day Ceres is an asteroid, then it is a planet. One day Pluto is a planet, then it is a dwarf planet. There are many scientists who do not agree with the latest classification, which has many flaws. Now, if I referred to Ceres, for example, as an asteroid, then the vast majority of people would know what I was talking about. Especially those who Have studied astronomy for many years. They grew up with Ceres the asteroid. If I mentioned Pluto as planet, again the vast majority would know what I was talking about, especially those who disagree with the current classifications. So I dont go with your assumption that I wouldn't be understood if I used those terms

I note that you left off the words "by an asteroid" there, which is how we got onto this argument in the first place.

Our argument in the first place is more to do with your closed views on what is possible, or not.

This is now somewhat of a general debate, so I'll stop it there, and bring it back on track by saying again that I believe that, however small, there is a chance that Elenin's orbit will change over the next 6 months.

Well if it does come to close they will target it with some ICBM's ,end of story ..........

this is so sweet that the Draconids meteor "storm" happens on my b-day (October 8th)!!! then, we pass through Elenin's tail almost 3 weeks later?! i heard "Elenin" is actually "Elin" (Tiger's wife). notice the orbit of the comet is the exact angle of a perfect golf swing.....................................just kidding folks! no need to debunk..i admit, it's a joke...lol

The title of this post "Comet Elenin is coming!" reminded me of the 80's song "Come on Eileen" recorded by the group called Dexy's Midnight Runners. Here's the music video. Enjoy the blast from the past.

reply to post by MadMaxZombie
cheers "clink"
my date is this as well

Keeping the balance
This is why I look so forward to seeing Elenin

reply to post by MadMaxZombie

My B day is the 7th of October.

But I have always held the 14th of Oct to be a very special day, I just don't have the year.

We might have to dance for 24 hours, in groups, to keep awake, so as to not miss the sight... possibly?

reply to post by win 52
Naturally ,. YOU are awesome as well,.
Elenin will be great
If it wasnt for Liberians,.
the world... would tip

Hi , i think i'm seeing this comet . I live in Australia , Brisbane and for the last few weeks on my way home from work at 4am i can see a bright large star looking object to the east 25' / 30' degrees up from the horizon , it looks awesome and i can't wait for it to come closer .
Can anyone confirm that this is the comet and not some other star please .

Thank you
ozbserver

Originally posted by ozbserver
Hi , i think i'm seeing this comet . I live in Australia , Brisbane and for the last few weeks on my way home from work at 4am i can see a bright large star looking object to the east 25' / 30' degrees up from the horizon , it looks awesome and i can't wait for it to come closer .
Can anyone confirm that this is the comet and not some other star please .

Thank you
ozbserver

I think the position is currently to the bottom left area of the constellation Leo. There is a chart earlier in this thread that plots the position by date.

Do you have any pictures, or a pic/ video you can take through a telescope? It probably doesn't have the magnitude to see through the naked eye at the moment...

Originally posted by ozbserver
Hi , i think i'm seeing this comet . I live in Australia , Brisbane and for the last few weeks on my way home from work at 4am i can see a bright large star looking object to the east 25' / 30' degrees up from the horizon , it looks awesome and i can't wait for it to come closer .
Can anyone confirm that this is the comet and not some other star please .

Thank you
ozbserver

I too have been watching the exact same thing. We have had crazy cloud for weeks.

it is very bright around 4am

I am currently in the Redlands ( panorama Drive)

it is very very bright and large in the sky,

Surely it is not an imcoming aircraft as I have watched it until it fades

i am glad that i am not losing the plot and another human has seen it

i will attempt to photograph it overnight.

it is currently 19:43hr, 23rd march 2011

Originally posted by UKTruth

Originally posted by ozbserver
Hi , i think i'm seeing this comet . I live in Australia , Brisbane and for the last few weeks on my way home from work at 4am i can see a bright large star looking object to the east 25' / 30' degrees up from the horizon , it looks awesome and i can't wait for it to come closer .
Can anyone confirm that this is the comet and not some other star please .

Thank you
ozbserver

I think the position is currently to the bottom left area of the constellation Leo. There is a chart earlier in this thread that plots the position by date.

Do you have any pictures, or a pic/ video you can take through a telescope? It probably doesn't have the magnitude to see through the naked eye at the moment...

Just looked at Stellarium. Leo is very low on the horizon in the western sky in Brisbane at the moment. I think what you might be seeing in the eastern sky is Venus, which is currently in the constellation Aquarius, not far above the horizon at 4am.