Comet Elenin is coming!

Originally posted by cabuki
reply to post by gringoboy

 

Any idea how big yu55 is? I just saw how on the 9th, it gets 0.0023au from earth, thats freaking CLOSE. Why are we not discussing this? All this talk about the 11th, is for elenin right? So we would have both right next to us at that point then? Would there be any chance of yu55 and elenin somehow hitting each other? Sorry to bombard you with questions, i just find it interesting that we dont discuss yu55 even though it seems like its on a direct course to us in november. Crazy stuff man. Stars for you!

Don't forget! We also have the draconid meteors to look at as well. Occurring at the same time, November 2011!,

reply to post by wildespace


Does anyone remember the Simpsons episode (Bye Bye Nerdie) where Lisa is giving a presentation on her discovery of a nerd pheromone she called "poindextrose" to a bunch of scientists? They all scoff and you can hear one of them saying "Let's not listen" over and over again. It's so accurate...

You must be here because you're interested in learning and discussing. I doubt you're here simply to tell people they're wrong. No one is suggesting you pledge allegiance to any new theory. But you would be better suited to engage in the discussion if you at least understood what we were discussing. You don't have to wait for any particular person or entity to give you permission to exercise your critical thinking skills. The data is already out there, you only need review it. Even if the theory turns out to be a load of crap, you'll still learn a lot during your investigation. And learning is fun.

I just watched a documentary called "Thunderbolts of the Gods" that gave a nice overview of The Electric Universe Theory. I watched a PBS documentary based on current standard cosmology beforehand for comparison. So the EU documentary is obviously low-budget and lacking artistic merit, but overall, it made so much more sense than the PBS documentary. It is based on observation rather than figments of some astrophysicists imagination. The Electric Universe guys actually have arguments to support their theories whereas the standard cosmologists gloss over the fact that many of their theories are not observed, tested, or proven.

The documentary has an interesting chapter of discussion of comets. Anyone who is remotely interested in cosmology should watch it. Thunderbolts of the Gods

This little one comes tommorow very close. 2011 EY11 just 0,3 LD. Is close enough for me???

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

I might see a lot of sense in the video or articles about EU, but I prefer to form my view of the world on articles released by reliable sources such as universities, observatories and space agencies, after the topic has been reviewed by as much of the scientific community as possible.

I studied with Jehovah's Witnesses one time, and found everything they said very logical and convincing. I even got baptized and preached from door to door. From what other JWs said, I was quite a zealous preacher. Then I started to read a lot more about science and realised how unfounded my beliefs were.

My critical thinking skills tell me that there must be a reason for why EU is ignored by the scientific community to such extent that many well-read people haven't even heard of it. I have other problems with EU, but I will post them in the appropriate thread in the Science & Technology forum.

~~~

@ni91ck Thread about it here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

0.000884315306372181 AU = 132,291.801 km or 82 202.3142 miles. That's very close indeed. Gotta report it in my Close Approach group on Facebook.

For entertainment purposes only. Watched an episode of The Yardigans with my grandson this morning and it made me laugh. It sabout a meteor coming to hit earth. This is intended for age 2-5 years, so there awareness of otherwordly events, aliens, space is being heightened. I have watched numerous kids programmes and there are always episodes about space etc....
It is only two minutes long and I bet you have peeps you know who are like these wee characters?

www.youtube.com...

reply to post by kalenga


Same here...many many times kids shows are about the moon, the solar system, the Sun, and stars (often showing constellations and explains a meaning of them). Especially like you said, the shows that are for the 2-5 age group.

Ive wondered if this is why my now 5 year old is obsessed with finding the moon at night (and note that he is really a good mark for knowing where the moon will be in the sky).

reply to post by LeoVirgo
Yes, it is weird how all these shows are coming on with aliens as friends etc.... Disclosure might not be in our lifetime but the powers that be are readying the next generation for it, in my opinion?

reply to post by kalenga


We had star wars, star trek, battlestar galactica, buck Rogers, alien, space 1999, v, all kinds if sic-fi, they never told us anything. Ha!

Originally posted by kalenga
reply to post by LeoVirgo

 

Yes, it is weird how all these shows are coming on with aliens as friends etc.... Disclosure might not be in our lifetime but the powers that be are readying the next generation for it, in my opinion?

I think it could simply be that as we learn how small of a speck earth is in this vastness...we see it as more possible that there be other life. I think its smart to come out of the 'all else must be evil' idea and be more subjective to an idea of 'other life'.

I dont see too much 'aliens' on this shows....but just up the age category to the 5-10 age group and there is where you see more of the 'aliens'.

I for one find that it would be really really hard for another life form to travel long distance and I am not a part of the whole 'disclosure' group that thinks they are already here or what ever. I think a past of earth may of had another planet that was close to it or mabey earth got sling shotted ( ) out of another galaxy and here we landed. Mabey Earth was once very close to another planet that had life and this is where we see our old stories of 'beings from the sky' come from.

Its all just guess work at best right now I think. But I would love to see more of our younger generations grow up with a interests to space.

reply to post by LeoVirgo

DITO, I agree about getting the youngsters to learn more about everything outside this beautiful planet of ours. I am already planning to get my grand kids out to look through my telescope once they are older as they are all under 3 years of age now. I will be teaching them as well as the school and television.
I feel giving them a sense of the diversity of this planet and beyond can only be good for the future of mankind (old trekkie thoughts coming out there?).
Living in harmony with your fellow man is something we are trying to achieve nowadays. Hopefully this next generation will further that aim?

reply to post by kalenga

Hopefully this next generation will further that aim?

I do hope

Embracing diversity and learning how to respect it instead of let it divide us.

Meteor coming within Earth's atmosphere tonight GMT.

Actually if you look it up now, the distance is even closer. On the 7th, it shows its going to be IN our atmosphere, its no longer only .00088 AU, its 9.0E-4au now, check out the link...JPL Database

Came from this thread, get out tonight to see if you can see any meteors??

www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=670381

reply to post by wildespace


I hear what you're saying. Just don't let what the religious crazies did to you make you cynical to the point of being as closed-minded as they are. I went through the same thing myself. I was brought up in a Pentecostal home and sent to a Evangelical private school until my mother decided she would home-school me and tell me why science was the devil. It has been a long journey to be free of the damage it did.

Anyway, this subject isn't exactly comparable to religion. For instance, when you ask Fundamentalists for proof of their beliefs, they typically say, "Because the Bible says so." Really, religion doesn't make any sense at all and then says it's supposed to be that way because it exercises faith.

Plasma Cosmology doesn't simply appeal to rationalism, it appeals to empiricism as well. Both reason and observation give credence to their theories. But, more importantly, it reminds us of the problems with the current model of cosmology. I don't think current cosmology is all wrong, only that it's missing something. Current cosmology has become so far removed from Earth sciences. In an Electric Universe, the scientific disciplines could more readily be united. Are you familiar with supervenience ? Have you ever seen this? Now I'm not trying to sell you something. I'm just saying, isn't it curious?

I think there is a very good reason that cosmologists wouldn't want to hear what this theory has to say - no one wants to hear that they're wrong, especially scientists. It would render so much work and money meaningless. Change is always slow to come to science, this has been evident throughout history. I'm sure there are also a ton of scientists that haven't even heard of plasma cosmology. It was hard to find information even when I was searching for it by name.

Mainstream science won't pick up on this data unless there is sufficient interest and buzz that will 1) make them aware that the theory even exists, and 2) inspire them to review and test its merits. I hope it comes quick. If you ever participate in a discussion about it in another thread, please come back and link to it here. I'd love to hear what your thoughts are.

reply to post by kalenga


9.0E-4 = .0009
.0009 AU = 83,000 miles

The Earth's atmosphere does not extend 83,000 miles.

reply to post by wildespace

My critical thinking skills tell me that there must be a reason for why EU is ignored by the scientific community to such extent that many well-read people haven't even heard of it.

That there is indeed. It would upset their cosy little world because it explains, or appears to explain, so many things that mainstream cosmology glosses over or invents unsupportable theories for.

You cannot seriously tell me that you won't look at something because a University has not approved it? My God the world would be in an even sorrier state than it is if that was the case.

Don't compare reading about PC/EU to learning about a particular religion. Religion is NEVER science and cannot be. PC/EU is science and deserves a look, even if for no other reason than that I would love someone to tell me honestly what is wrong with it in their opinion!

Backing only the mainstream horse just because it is the favourite is the best way to lose. Go ahead, have an each way flutter on PC/EU!

By the way, you said on another thread that the JPL orbits are notoriously inaccurate. Does that apply to the orbit for Elenin?

reply to post by thinkingthing


Sage advice friend. *4u

At the risk of repeating myself, if anyone is interested in U theory there are several videos on this page

Edit:

Elenins stats have been updated 03 Mar 2011.



It says 0.233 AU but if you run the hourly simulation there are several hours where it is still @ 0.232 (the current figure until this update).



Running the ephemeris for 1 hour intervals give 0.233

*******************************************************************************
Ephemeris / WWW_USER Sun Mar 6 13:37:29 2011 Pasadena, USA / Horizons
*******************************************************************************
Target body name: Elenin (C/2010 X1) [source: JPL#15]
Center body name: Earth (399) [source: DE405]
Center-site name: GEOCENTRIC
*******************************************************************************
Start time : A.D. 2011-Oct-15 00:00:00.0000 UT
Stop time : A.D. 2011-Oct-17 00:00:00.0000 UT
Step-size : 60 minutes
*******************************************************************************
Target pole/equ : No model available
Target radii : (unavailable)
Center geodetic : 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 [E-lon(deg),Lat(deg),Alt(km)]
Center cylindric: 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 [E-lon(deg),Dxy(km),Dz(km)]
Center pole/equ : High-precision EOP model [East-longitude +]
Center radii : 6378.1 x 6378.1 x 6356.8 km [Equator, meridian, pole]
Target primary : Sun [source: DE405]
Interfering body: MOON (Req= 1737.400) km [source: DE405]
Deflecting body : Sun, EARTH [source: DE405]
Deflecting GMs : 1.3271E+11, 3.9860E+05 km^3/s^2
Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta [source: SB405-CPV-2]
Small body GMs : 6.32E+01, 1.43E+01, 1.78E+01 km^3/s^2
Atmos refraction: NO (AIRLESS)
RA format : HMS
Time format : CAL
EOP file : eop.110304.p110526
EOP coverage : DATA-BASED 1962-JAN-20 TO 2011-MAR-04. PREDICTS-> 2011-MAY-25
Units conversion: 1 AU= 149597870.691 km, c= 299792.458 km/s, 1 day= 86400.0 s
Table cut-offs 1: Elevation (-90.0deg=NO ),Airmass (>38.000=NO), Daylight (NO )
Table cut-offs 2: Solar Elongation ( 0.0,180.0=NO )
*******************************************************************************
Initial FK5/J2000.0 heliocentric ecliptic osculating elements (AU, DAYS, DEG):
EPOCH= 2455588.5 != 2011-Jan-27.0000000 (CT) Residual RMS= .63593
EC= .9999809903593353 QR= .482498199582977 TP= 2455815.246765697
OM= 323.2396296064117 W= 343.7959934169134 IN= 1.839827829302322
Comet physical & dynamic parameters (KM, SEC; A1,A2,A3=AU/d^2; DT=days):
GM= n.a. RAD= n.a. A1= n.a.
A2= n.a. A3= n.a. DT= n.a.
M1= 10.4 M2= 13.5 k1= 10.
k2= 5. PHCOF= .030
**************************************************************************************************************
Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC T-mag N-mag delta deldot
**************************************************************************************************************
$$SOE
2011-Oct-15 00:00 09 25 44.03 +22 20 22.1 6.89 13.24 0.23447343964976 -2.4699446
2011-Oct-15 01:00 09 25 10.09 +22 23 31.8 6.90 13.23 0.23441466878315 -2.4148989
2011-Oct-15 02:00 09 24 36.11 +22 26 41.2 6.90 13.23 0.23435722234812 -2.3598638
2011-Oct-15 03:00 09 24 02.10 +22 29 50.1 6.90 13.22 0.23430110008208 -2.3048398
2011-Oct-15 04:00 09 23 28.06 +22 32 58.7 6.91 13.22 0.23424630171312 -2.2498272
2011-Oct-15 05:00 09 22 53.98 +22 36 06.8 6.91 13.21 0.23419282695995 -2.1948265
2011-Oct-15 06:00 09 22 19.86 +22 39 14.6 6.91 13.21 0.23414067553187 -2.1398381
2011-Oct-15 07:00 09 21 45.72 +22 42 21.9 6.91 13.21 0.23408984712871 -2.0848622
2011-Oct-15 08:00 09 21 11.54 +22 45 28.8 6.92 13.20 0.23404034144084 -2.0298994
2011-Oct-15 09:00 09 20 37.32 +22 48 35.3 6.92 13.20 0.23399215814921 -1.9749501
2011-Oct-15 10:00 09 20 03.08 +22 51 41.4 6.92 13.19 0.23394529692517 -1.9200145
2011-Oct-15 11:00 09 19 28.80 +22 54 47.1 6.93 13.19 0.23389975743058 -1.8650931
2011-Oct-15 12:00 09 18 54.49 +22 57 52.3 6.93 13.18 0.23385553931770 -1.8101864
2011-Oct-15 13:00 09 18 20.14 +23 00 57.2 6.93 13.18 0.23381264222920 -1.7552947
2011-Oct-15 14:00 09 17 45.77 +23 04 01.6 6.94 13.18 0.23377106579822 -1.7004184
2011-Oct-15 15:00 09 17 11.36 +23 07 05.5 6.94 13.17 0.23373080964818 -1.6455579
2011-Oct-15 16:00 09 16 36.92 +23 10 09.0 6.94 13.17 0.23369187339287 -1.5907136
2011-Oct-15 17:00 09 16 02.45 +23 13 12.1 6.94 13.16 0.23365425663646 -1.5358860
2011-Oct-15 18:00 09 15 27.95 +23 16 14.7 6.95 13.16 0.23361795897339 -1.4810754
2011-Oct-15 19:00 09 14 53.42 +23 19 16.9 6.95 13.15 0.23358297998838 -1.4262822
2011-Oct-15 20:00 09 14 18.86 +23 22 18.6 6.95 13.15 0.23354931925648 -1.3715068
2011-Oct-15 21:00 09 13 44.27 +23 25 19.9 6.96 13.15 0.23351697634296 -1.3167496
2011-Oct-15 22:00 09 13 09.65 +23 28 20.7 6.96 13.14 0.23348595080338 -1.2620111
2011-Oct-15 23:00 09 12 35.00 +23 31 21.1 6.96 13.14 0.23345624218350 -1.2072917
2011-Oct-16 00:00 09 12 00.33 +23 34 21.0 6.97 13.13 0.23342785001935 -1.1525917
2011-Oct-16 01:00 09 11 25.62 +23 37 20.4 6.97 13.13 0.23340077383709 -1.0979115
2011-Oct-16 02:00 09 10 50.88 +23 40 19.3 6.97 13.12 0.23337501315317 -1.0432517
2011-Oct-16 03:00 09 10 16.12 +23 43 17.8 6.98 13.12 0.23335056747415 -0.9886125
2011-Oct-16 04:00 09 09 41.33 +23 46 15.8 6.98 13.12 0.23332743629686 -0.9339944
2011-Oct-16 05:00 09 09 06.51 +23 49 13.3 6.98 13.11 0.23330561910821 -0.8793977
2011-Oct-16 06:00 09 08 31.66 +23 52 10.3 6.99 13.11 0.23328511538536 -0.8248230
2011-Oct-16 07:00 09 07 56.79 +23 55 06.9 6.99 13.10 0.23326592459555 -0.7702706
2011-Oct-16 08:00 09 07 21.89 +23 58 02.9 6.99 13.10 0.23324804619623 -0.7157409
2011-Oct-16 09:00 09 06 46.97 +24 00 58.5 6.99 13.10 0.23323147963500 -0.6612344
2011-Oct-16 10:00 09 06 12.01 +24 03 53.6 7.00 13.09 0.23321622434955 -0.6067514
2011-Oct-16 11:00 09 05 37.04 +24 06 48.1 7.00 13.09 0.23320227976778 -0.5522923
2011-Oct-16 12:00 09 05 02.03 +24 09 42.2 7.00 13.08 0.23318964530767 -0.4978576
2011-Oct-16 13:00 09 04 27.01 +24 12 35.7 7.01 13.08 0.23317832037742 -0.4434477
2011-Oct-16 14:00 09 03 51.95 +24 15 28.8 7.01 13.08 0.23316830437529 -0.3890629
2011-Oct-16 15:00 09 03 16.88 +24 18 21.3 7.01 13.07 0.23315959668972 -0.3347038
2011-Oct-16 16:00 09 02 41.78 +24 21 13.3 7.02 13.07 0.23315219669929 -0.2803706
2011-Oct-16 17:00 09 02 06.65 +24 24 04.8 7.02 13.06 0.23314610377272 -0.2260639
2011-Oct-16 18:00 09 01 31.51 +24 26 55.8 7.02 13.06 0.23314131726888 -0.1717839
2011-Oct-16 19:00 09 00 56.33 +24 29 46.3 7.03 13.06 0.23313783653681 -0.1175312
2011-Oct-16 20:00 09 00 21.14 +24 32 36.2 7.03 13.05 0.23313566091569 -0.0633062
2011-Oct-16 21:00 08 59 45.92 +24 35 25.6 7.03 13.05 0.23313478973487 -0.0091092
2011-Oct-16 22:00 08 59 10.69 +24 38 14.5 7.04 13.04 0.23313522231387 0.0450594
2011-Oct-16 23:00 08 58 35.43 +24 41 02.8 7.04 13.04 0.23313695796243 0.0991991
2011-Oct-17 00:00 08 58 00.15 +24 43 50.6 7.04 13.04 0.23313999598042 0.1533095
**************************************************************************************************************

This is confusing...Care to shed some light on this?

reply to post by Phage
Please post to the originator on the thread quoted if you want to correct this mistake? You are quite right to point it out and correct it?

reply to post by Gab1159


It is just confirming the data in the last line of the table above that is all.

The orbital diagram and the ephemeris (the data listed) do not agree, but you should always take the ephemeris as the orbital diagram is just a simulation written by a programmer so it is bound to be wrong

Originally posted by cabuki
reply to post by gringoboy

 

Any idea how big yu55 is? I just saw how on the 9th, it gets 0.0023au from earth, thats freaking CLOSE. Why are we not discussing this? All this talk about the 11th, is for elenin right? So we would have both right next to us at that point then? Would there be any chance of yu55 and elenin somehow hitting each other? Sorry to bombard you with questions, i just find it interesting that we dont discuss yu55 even though it seems like its on a direct course to us in november. Crazy stuff man. Stars for you!

Originally posted by gringoboy
reply to post by sickofitall2012

 

The comet will pass by on between mid-september/late october but will be closest on the 16th october. However the asteroid yu55 which is reported to be passing between earth and moon on the 8th november(8/11/11) at a distance of 149,000 miles, rate of speed 34,600-ish mph, and size 1340 feet.This is the thing, where will be the moon on its transit - thats the dillema. The moon is 238,857 miles from earth and current figures put the asteroid to within 12 million inches of the moon in itsorbit as both transit at the same time.
If this impacts the moon then the planets water will be perturbed and a deluge will ensue. However take comfort that nasa predicts no impacts with earth for 100 years, remember earth, not the moon.

Greetings cabuki and gringoboy:

Great! Here is a way to serve two at a time! While I do realize that this thread is about Comet Elenin, I contend they are uniquely bound together in the very near future and that they need to be examined together. The Elenin side has been thrashed pretty good in the previous pages, so I will add a bit about NASA and their approach to news dissemination and astroid impact event scenarios in particular regarding the possibility of 2005 YU55 and Elenin appearing at the same time.

As always, nice to see you both out there taking an active part in this lively, important discussion and a pleasure to add to the Elenin / 2005 YU55 database.

The question was asked: What is the size of 2005-YU55?

The simple average answer in the MSM is about 1,312 feet - 400 meters - about 4.3 football fields laid end-to-end. Another way to envision the size of this asteroid, it is about 200 feet longer than the the longest naval vessel in the world, the USS Enterprise at 1,123 ft (342 m).

USS Enterprise (CVN 65), the world's first nuclear - powered aircraft carrier, commemorates a name which has been a continuing symbol of the great struggle to retain American liberty, justice and freedom since the first days of the American Revolutionary War. The eighth ship of the Fleet to carry this illustrious name that is defining boldness, energy, and invention in practical affairs. The ships named Enterprise have fought in some of the greatest naval battles in the history of the United States. These ships were manned by Sailors committed to victory under the harshest of conditions. U.S. Navy

USS Enterprise. U.S. Navy

By the way, the asteroid is incoming at 15.5 km/s - 34,652 mph. That's 50,853 miles per second - about twice around the circumference of the earth at the equator in one second. That's fast.

However, as usual there is nothing simple in an answer regarding an incoming object from 'outer space,' especially one that is scheduled to arrive at the same time as Comet Elenin, making 15 October to 15 November of 2011 a much-watched time period.

"This is 'the closest approach' of anything in 200 years." (NASA).

The Minor Planet Center lists 2005-YU55 as "Potentially Hazardous."

In this shell game, one must watch the hands very carefully. Is Comet Elenin in the right or left? Or not at all? NASA wants you to watch the right. 'Go right, and you'll be left" has never been more true. So, "Go left, and you'll be right." Not that that means Elenin is in the left, either. But, where does that leave 2005 YU55?

Also, before I forget, there seems to be dissimilitude in the various stories released regarding the "true mission" of the final flight of Space Shuttle Discovery. Has anybody else run across this? But that's another thread. Asteroids and comets should keep us busy for now.



Friday, February 25, 2011 - The final flight of space shuttle Discovery lifted off from NASA's Kennedy Space Center at 4:53 p.m. EST Thursday to deliver a new module and critical supplies to the International Space Station.

Gringoboy, this is a bit of information to consider and perhaps it will add to your train of thought in the above fine post (connecting the dots between Elenin and 2005 YU55) with this offering (partially excerpted from COMETGATE - The Series).

Sorry to mislead anyone about the inches thing - just checking the readership or lack thereof. No one else caught any (of many) cookies left along the trail. So be it. The real answer is 2,735,568,018 inches (43,125 miles) which is so close that one might be concerned regarding the uncertainty of the posted uncertainty factor deduced from calculations taken around a million and a half miles out (NASA figures).

OK, ATS'ers: (Phage, this question should be right up your alley - or 'shooting gallery' as Mark Bailey might allude to.)

What degree of error (say, a 'tiny' inaccuracy in calculations of the small perturbers) at, say, a million miles, would shift the asteroid enough to impact the Moon?

And what date is it when 2005 YU55 is 1 million miles from Earth?


Collision course. It would take a moon-sized object to move the moon. NASA/JPL-Caltech

“If an asteroid hits the moon, it will just get another crater,” says Gareth Wynn-Williams, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii. It would take a moon-size object to move the moon, says Clark Chapman, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute, and most likely the moon wouldn’t survive. Hitting it with a much larger, denser object would be like whacking an egg with a golf club.

But let’s say that the moon and the thing hitting it will react like solid billiard balls. None of the known asteroids larger than 60 miles in diameter orbit anywhere near the moon. OK, how about if the largest known asteroid, Ceres—which at 600 miles across is roughly the size of California and Nevada combined—did manage to slip out of its place in the asteroid belt and set out on a collision course for the moon?

Hardly a budge, Wynn-Williams says. It’s the equivalent of a four-year-old trying to knock over an NFL lineman. The moon orbits the Earth at some 0.635 miles per second. This orbital momentum is so great that it would overwhelm the impact force of a collision and just continue zinging around the planet.
SOURCE

Ceres was named after the Roman goddess of the harvest, of growing plants, and motherly love. It is the smallest of the dwarf planets, a new category of astronomical bodies created by the International Astronomical Union in 2006. Dwarf planets currently includes Pluto, Eris, and Ceres. Pluto's demotion from the list of solar system planets grabbed front-page headlines in 2006. But the debate over the qualifications for planethood reaches back to the discovery of Ceres.
Wiki

Pluto was demoted to a category called dwarf planets, and Ceres was promoted to the same category.

Two more dwarf planets. Does that make three? Pluto, Ceres, Eris...where did Eris come from?




Astronomer Mike Brown explains why Pluto was demoted as a planet and his role in changing how astronomers define our solar system. The Caltech astronomer has discovered hundreds of objects in the outer limits of our solar system, but it was his discovery of the dwarf planet Eris that caused International Astronomical Union to demote Pluto from a planet to a dwarf planet in 2006. Brown is the author of How I Killed Pluto and Why It Had It Coming.

How about any chances of anything = like a big chunk - caused by a collision hitting Earth?

Or is it a two-fer? Kinda like carroms or billiards? Don't there exist some theories as to this? I seem to recall Earth as described as being in a 'cosmic shooting gallery.'

Gotta love Google.

EARTH IN THE COSMIC SHOOTING GALLERY. By D.J. Asher, Mark Bailey, Vacheslav Emel'yanenko and Bill Napier

A shot across NASA's bow? It looks more like a direct hit by a cruise missile.

Conclusion
Taking these arguments together, an appeal to small number statistics seems unconvincing.
It instead suggests that the terrestrial impact rate is substantially higher than current NEO
population models imply. This is consistent with an unseen cometary contribution to the ter-
restrial impact hazard14,15 , questioning the conclusions, in this respect, of the 2003 NASA NEO
Science Definition Report13.

(13) G.H. Stokes, D.K. Yeomans, W.F. Bottke, D. Jewitt, S.R. Chesley, T.S. Kelso, J.B. Evans,
R.S. McMillan, R.E. Gold, T.B. Spahr, A.W. Harris and S.P. Worden, “Study to Deter-
mine the Feasibility of Extending the Search for Near-Earth Ob jects to Smaller Limit-
ing Diameters”. Report of the Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team, NASA, Of-
fice of Space Science, Solar System Exploration Division, Maryland, USA, 2003. See also
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

(14) W.M. Napier, J.T. Wickramasinghe and N.C. Wickramasinghe, “Extreme albedo comets
and the impact hazard”. MNRAS, 355, 191–195, 2004.

(15) V.V. Emel’yanenko and M.E. Bailey, “Capture of Halley-type comets from the near-
parabolic flux”. MNRAS, 298, 212–222, 1998.

Pop Quiz!

What is the name, date and close-approach data for the closest approach to earth by any object to date?

Perhaps more importantly, while you are at it, please acquire the same information for the next object projected to come close. (One might think that most people involved in this discussion would know this stuff off the top of the head?) Please be sure to list your source(s), especially if it's NASA, with the name of the author, media and date.

RADAR IMAGES CAPTURE LARGEST POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID EVER
Astronomers have used the world's two most powerful radar telescopes to make the most detailed images ever obtained for a large asteroid in a potentially Earth-threatening orbit.

Radar Images Of Asteroid 1999 JM8
July 28 - August 5, 1999
Images Courtesy Of Lance Benner, JPL

Nearly four kilometers across, the huge rock known as 1999 JM8 silently passed only 8.5 million kilometers from the Earth in early August. The small asteroid was completely unknown before May. Every few centuries, a rock like this impacts the Earth, with the potential to disrupt modern civilization. Radar from two of the largest radio telescopes, Arecibo and Goldstone, tracked and imaged the Apollo asteroid as it approached to only 22 times the distance to the Moon. Although 1999 JM8 missed the Earth, thousands of similar but unknown asteroids likely exist that cross Earth's orbit. In fact, four asteroids have passed inside the orbit of the Moon within the last decade. Possibly of larger concern to humanity are the more numerous rocks near 100 meters across. Were one of these to strike an ocean, a dangerous tidal wave might occur.

With an average diameter of about 3.5 kilometers (2 miles), 1999 JM8 is the largest of the so-called potentially hazardous asteroids ever studied in detail. Although this object can pass fairly close to Earth in celestial terms, astronomers concur that an actual encounter with Earth is not of concern in the next few centuries.

The new images, obtained with NASA's Goldstone Solar System Radar in California and the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, reveal that 1999 JM8 is a several-kilometer-wide object with a peculiar shape and an unusually slow and possibly complex spin state, said Dr. Lance Benner of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, who led the team of astronomers. The images are available online at photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov... or echo.jpl.nasa.gov...

Here are a few more things that were found to be of interest regarding Elenin, asteroids and comets in general and 2005 YU55 in particular.

This was released in November of 2009 by Vorchester.com.

NOV 2009
Vorchester.com - News » News Archive » 11.8.11

What is bigger than Apophis and will arrive on November 8, 2011?



Asteroid 2005 YU55 on November 8, 2011

And no one is talking much about it.

This asteroid, first discovered in December of 2005, remains mostly a mystery. Even its size is a guess. What's not a guess is when it will arrive again in the vicinity of earth.

Apophis was big news a few years ago when it was predicted to hit in 2029.  Much more is known about Apophis than 2005 YU55 and now it is said that Apophis will miss in 2029.  The size of Apophis is estimated to be about 270 meters across, about 885 feet.  2005 YU55 is estimated to be as large as 280 meters or 918 feet.

Certainly not big enough to be a planet killer. Worst-case scenario, using the given estimates of size, the most the thing could do would be to wipe out an area around 900 square miles. It’s certainly enough to take out any city along with all of the suburbs. It would leave a crater about four times the size of the meteor crater in Arizona.

Meteor Crater, Arizona

The problem with 2005 YU55 is that so much is up in the air.  The actual size estimate given by astronomers is between 120 and 280 meters, that’s more than a 100% difference between the upper and lower estimate.  Even if the estimates on its orbit are correct, this thing has been left unattended in space for over three years.  It will have been out of sight for over 4 years when it returns in April of next year.  How would its orbit change if it were to have a collision with some small object during this time?

We will certainly learn more about this asteroid in April 2010 when it returns.  Chances are nothing will happen at all.  With any luck this will just pass us by like so many that have come before.  Everyday on earth we take part in a cosmic lottery of sorts.  Problem is, no one wants to collect the grand prize.  Some day though, we will collect that prize.  Let just hope it’s not in out lifetime.

That's what Arecibo did last week, bouncing a signal off of near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55. As its name suggests, 2005 YU55 was discovered in 2005; actually it was discovered right at the end of 2005 (that's what the "Y" tells you), presumably when it was relatively close to Earth. It has an orbital period of 1.22 years, so it's had about three orbits of the Sun for the roughly four Earth orbits of the Sun since 2005 YU55 last approached Earth. This time, it came quite close in solar system terms, within about 2.3 million kilometers.
SOURCE

This is the 23 April 2010 Arecibo (Puerto Rico) Observatory's written press release, somewhat different than the embellished NASA bharf of the same event.

Based on mutt Asteroid 2005 YU55 was listed on NASA's "Sentry Risk Page" as having as small (about one in 10 million) chance of hitting the Earth in the next century. We observed this asteroid with the Arecibo Planetary Radar system on April 19-23.

The previouosly previously identified potential Eath impacts found using several hundred optical telescope data over 5 years were excluded by a few Arecibo radar measurements over two days.

These observations measured the distance to the asteroid at a resolution of 7.5 meters, about 25 feet, when it was over a million miles away.

SOURCE

Arecibo Observatory observations of 2005 YU55 22/04/10.

The Arecibo radio telescope was used to take this delay-Doppler image of potentially hazardous asteroid 2005 YU55 on April 22, 2010, during a close approach to Earth. At the time, the asteroid was more than two million kilometers from Earth. Credit: Cornell University

This is how NASA described the same event:

April 29, 2010
D.C. Agle 818-393-9011
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
[email protected]

Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 was "imaged" by the Arecibo Radar Telescope in Puerto Rico on April 19. Data collected during Arecibo's observation of 2005 YU55 allowed the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to refine the space rock's orbit, allowing scientists to rule out any possibility of an Earth impact for the next 100 years.

The space rock was about 2.3 million kilometers (1.5 million miles) from Earth at the time this image of the radar echo was generated. The ghostly image has a resolution of 7.5 meters (25 feet) per pixel. It reveals 2005 YU55 as a spherical object about 400 meters (1,300 feet) in size. 


50% Uncertainty Reduction!

Not only can the radar provide data on an asteroid's dimensions, but also on its exact location in space. Using Arecibo's high-precision radar astrometry capability, scientists were able to reduce orbit uncertainties for YU55 by 50 percent.


100% No Impact for 100 Years!

"At one time we had classified 2005 YU55 as a potential threat," said Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL's Near-Earth Object Program Office. "Prior to the Arecibo radar passes on April 19 thru 21, we had eliminated almost all upcoming Earth flybys as possibilities of impact. But there were a few that had a low remaining probability of impact. After incorporating the data from Arecibo, we were able to rule impacts out entirely for the next 100 years."
Radar Clicks Asteroid's Pic - NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
SOURCE

This statement implies an absolute, which one might think is statistically impossible because of the lack of sufficient data. NASA gets surprised by 'unexpected', 'not seen until it passed' events too much of the time to take their word as an absolute, IMHO. One might think that only ONE event would invalidate this statement to a devestating degree. I want to know.

More doublespeak gobbledegook:

Asteroid Watch - NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

One million miles away in April, 2010, headed this direction at 15.5 km/s / 34,672 mph (NASA).

Where is it today?

Based on those calculations, is it on schedule for 9-11-2011?

11-9-11 ? ? 11-11-9 ? ? I've noticed that there are different ways of writing dates in this area of scientific notation, especially in NASA documentation. Which ever way you cut the pie, its still the same day - and a Taurus Full Moon.

Here is more information on 2005 YU55.

1.) 2005 YU55 is listed in NASA's Small-body Database Browser.

2.) 2005 YU55 is in NASA's NEO Earth Close-Approaches Program


3.) 2005 YU55 is not on NASA's Sentry Risk Table. Current Impact Risks


4.) 2005 YU55 was removed from NASA's Sentry Risk Table when? May 2010?

Well, from April 19 to 23, Arecibo watched and tracked it. Within a couple of days, the data had allowed astronomers to refine 2005 YU55's orbit, reducing the uncertainty in its position by 50 percent. That was enough that there were no longer any conceivable future paths for the asteroid that intersected Earth, at least for the next 100 years, and 2005 YU55 has now been removed from the watch list. (Incidentally, the Arecibo data also revealed that the asteroid was actually about 400 meters across, twice as large and therefore an order of magnitude more massive -- and dangerous, if it really were an impact risk -- than previously thought.)

"...the asteroid was actually about 400 meters across, twice as large and therefore an order of magnitude more massive -- and dangerous, if it really were an impact risk -- than previously thought."

5.) Was this update, if not a downright retraction and restatement, ever an above-the-fold news or lead story in any media other that within the 'scientific' community?

6.) 2005 YU55 is not on the NASA "NEO's Removed from Impact Risk Tables" list last updated 7 march 2011.

Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 was imaged by the Arecibo Radar Telescope in Puerto Rico on April 19, 2010. Data collected during Arecibo's observation of 2005 YU55 allowed the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory to refine the space rock's orbit, allowing scientists to rule out any possibility of an Earth impact for the next 100 years.

7.) NASA flatly states that there is ZERO chance of any impact event in OCTOBER or NOVEMBER, 2011.

After incorporating the data from Arecibo, we were able to rule impacts out entirely for the next 100 years."

8.) 28/10/11 - 2005 YU55 comes between Saturn, Earth and the Sun in a line with Jupiter: 28 OCTOBER 2011

9.) 9/11/11 - 2005 YU55 passes between the Earth and the Moon at 43,125 miles close to the Moon: 9 NOVEMBER 2011

43,175 miles =>
69,483 kilometers
2,735,568,018 inches
227,964,007 feet
75,987,979 yards
43,175 miles

However you present the facts, they are what they are.

This might help.

NASA - JPL Solar System Simulator

Moon phase for 9-11 2011 Wednesday




Lunar phase on 9 November 2011 Wednesday is Waxing Gibbous.
The current moon phase is from 2011-11-02 17:38 to 2011-11-10 20:18.
The moon is in zodiac sign Taurus.


And now for something completely different.

Assuming that I performed the math correctly, 2005 YU55 will subtend approximately 0.4 arc-seconds, which is about 1/10th the angular diameter of Uranus. It's magnitude at the time will depend primarily upon the asteroid's albedo.

Lunar escape velocity is only 2.4 kilometers/second (1.5 miles/second).

2005 YU55 makes two close passes in November of 2011 and in both cases it is moving at about 15.5 km/sec relative to the Moon.

An impact at that speed would lob many pieces of lunar material and perhaps some of the asteroid from the lunar surface rapidly enough to escape the Moon's gravity. Many, perhaps most, of those would end up on the Earth (absent our atmosphere, of course).

Tycho is 85 kilometers (51 miles) in diameter and was probably created well over 100 million years ago.  An impact causing a new crater that size could be bad news for Earth as well.

I used a calculator for lunar impacts and found that an asteroid 3 kilometers in diameter striking the Moon at 20 kps at angle of 90 degrees would produce a crater 85 kilometers in diameter, the same size at Tycho.  The energy liberated would be over 2 million megatons.  The world's nuclear arsenal is about 5 thousand megatons.

SOURCE DaveMitsky

Let's look over the "facts" together to possibly form some sort of hypothesis regarding revised opinions as to an impact event..

The close-approach data for 2005 YU55 from NASA is here: 2005 YU55 Orbit Diagram

2011-Nov-08 23:29 < 00:01 2005 YU55 Earth 0.002173 a.u. nominal distance
2011-Nov-09 07:14 < 00:01 2005 YU55 Moon 0.001602 a.u. nominal distance

and here

(2005 YU55) 2011-Nov-08  23:29 ±