Comet Elenin is coming!

reply to post by thorazineshuffle


This is so odd. Why are there no photos of this bitch? If it's because their hiding something,.what could it be?
I don't believe you can tell the size of any comet just by a picture. Hmmm. So the reason they aren't letting us see it, is because because because..... Oh I'm just thinking out loud don't mind me.

What are the chances of this Leo Elenin guy, being a fiction? Who sees what I'm getting at?

There has to be a reason right? NASA is acting very strange on this.

Originally posted by randyvs
reply to post by thorazineshuffle

 

This is so odd. Why are there no photos of this bitch? If it's because their hiding something,.what could it be?
I don't believe you can tell the size of any comet just by a picture. Hmmm. So the reason they aren't letting us see it, is because because because..... Oh I'm just thinking out loud don't mind me.

What are the chances of this Leo Elenin guy, being a fiction? Who sees what I'm getting at?

There has to be a reason right? NASA is acting very strange on this.

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

Are you trolling? Look at my post just above yours.

You are very clearly trolling. Shoo! Shoo!

Read this and weep....Seems though it won't hit anything there isa danger of its trajectory disturbing space weather locally depending on what is hitching a ride along the way?

Source: solarwatch.wordpress.com...

It is called Elenin since it was discovered by Leonid Elenin. I expect the internet to soon be ringing with rumors and news bytes about this comet. For now, there isn’t much to say so I’m sharing what I’ve received in private from an astronomer at a big observatory that shall remain anonymous for the moment. He says:
1. It is too early to accurately predict the future path – it’s orbital parameters haven’t been revised.

2. Among the observable hyperbolic and parabolic comets (those that come from the Oort cloud) this one has the smallest perihelion distance and the smallest inclination to the ecliptic plane.

3. Comet Elenin’s orbit may be unstable as it may encounter some dark bodies, for example, in the asteroid belt or even some Taurid objects. What would happen in those cases is a matter of luck.

4. This comet may carry a significant amount of material with it and if it follows the currently projected orbit, the Earth may very well pass through this material.

5. If Elenin is anything like what Victor Clube or James McCanney describes, we might be in for some surprises – good or bad, who knows? When this was first discovered in December last year it was calculated that it would pass 8.8 Au (8.8 times the distance of the Sun from us) away. Now today the orbital calculation is down to 0.24 Au with a minimum as low as 0.15. This is being re-calculated all the time and could get even closer but it depends what it encounters with the Taurid meteor belt (See image below). The Moon is 0.00256 Au from us to give you a comparison. You should be aware the this comet could bring debris with it and we will pass through the debris trail – if it exists – around the 6th November 2011.

reply to post by kalenga


What's to weep about? There are too many if's and may's in the post you quoted. There in no observational data to suggest any harm to earth.

reply to post by wildespace


WTF you accuse me of trolling for? The first part of my short lil post, was just my thoughts agreeing with you.
Then just as is stated I was just thinking out loud. I didn't look at your links but why would I be trolling?

Look I'm just say'in, that if there is a reason they arn't putting up any pics of Elenin. It isn't because of size.
So what other reasons can there be?

Trolling ? Seriously ? Can you please explain ?


Why arn't there daily photographs?

1. It is too early to accurately predict the future path – it’s orbital parameters haven’t been revised.

The orbit has been calculated well enough that there will not be any major changes. spaceobs.org...

2. Among the observable hyperbolic and parabolic comets (those that come from the Oort cloud) this one has the smallest perihelion distance and the smallest inclination to the ecliptic plane.

Comet Lulin is closer to the ecliptic (inclination of just 1.6°). Elenin's inclination is 1.84°.

3. Comet Elenin’s orbit may be unstable as it may encounter some dark bodies, for example, in the asteroid belt or even some Taurid objects. What would happen in those cases is a matter of luck.

All the encounters with known bodies have been taken into the account. It's very unlikely that there is an undiscovered body massive enough to alter the comet's trajectory.

4. This comet may carry a significant amount of material with it and if it follows the currently projected orbit, the Earth may very well pass through this material.

Which would cause a meteor shower. I hope this will happens.

5. If Elenin is anything like what Victor Clube or James McCanney describes, we might be in for some surprises – good or bad, who knows? When this was first discovered in December last year it was calculated that it would pass 8.8 Au (8.8 times the distance of the Sun from us) away. Now today the orbital calculation is down to 0.24 Au with a minimum as low as 0.15. This is being re-calculated all the time and could get even closer but it depends what it encounters with the Taurid meteor belt (See image below). The Moon is 0.00256 Au from us to give you a comparison. You should be aware the this comet could bring debris with it and we will pass through the debris trail – if it exists – around the 6th November 2011.

The currently-calculated close approach is at 0.233 AU with the minimum of 0.231 AU.
We will pass through its tail on around Sep 27.

Originally posted by randyvs
reply to post by wildespace

 

WTF you accuse me of trolling for?

The first part of my short lil post, was just my thoughts agreeing with you.
Then just as is stated I was just thinking out loud. I didn't look at your links but why would I be trolling?

Look I'm just say'in, that if there is a reason they arn't putting up any pics of Elenin. It isn't because of size.
So what other reasons can there be?

Trolling ? Seriously ? Can you please explain ?

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

Why arn't there daily photographs?

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

I posted a link where you can see the photos of Elenin. That should've satisfied you, but now you want daily photos.

Originally posted by wildespace

Originally posted by randyvs
reply to post by wildespace

 

WTF you accuse me of trolling for?

The first part of my short lil post, was just my thoughts agreeing with you.
Then just as is stated I was just thinking out loud. I didn't look at your links but why would I be trolling?

Look I'm just say'in, that if there is a reason they arn't putting up any pics of Elenin. It isn't because of size.
So what other reasons can there be?

Trolling ? Seriously ? Can you please explain ?

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

Why arn't there daily photographs?

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

edit on 4-3-2011 by randyvs because: (no reason given)

I posted a link where you can see the photos of Elenin. That should've satisfied you, but now you want daily photos.

No stud, I don't want daily pics. I understand what you are saying now. But damn it I wasn't trolling.:
Thanks for the link.

reply to post by kalenga

Weep? Why? A blog post about a something "an astronomer" said.

1) Nonsense. It is not too early to determine the orbit of Elenin. With 434 observation the orbital elements are very refined. The uncertainty in the perihelion is less than 6,000 miles. There is 1% uncertainty on the close approach distance to Earth.

2) Perhaps. What is the significance of it?

3) The 4 objects (one of which it has already passed) which it have close approaches to are too small to have any significant effect on its orbit.

4) Extremely unlikely that Earth will pass through the tail of Elenin. When it crosses Earth's orbit it will be above the ecliptic, the tail will be "above" Earth. But even if it did, so what? The Earth passes through cometary tails all the time. That's what meteor showers are.

5) What does passing through the tail of another comet have to do with anything? What is a thin cloud of tiny particles supposed to do?

I didn't see anything about affecting space weather, locally or otherwise. Can you clarify that? How does a comet passing at a distance of more than 21,000,000 miles affect space weather?

Originally posted by Phage
4) Extremely unlikely that Earth will pass through the tail of Elenin. When it crossed Earth's orbit it will be above the ecliptic, the tail will be "above" Earth. But even if it did, so what? The Earth passes through cometary tails all the time. That's what meteor showers are.

Hi, thanks for these points. I just wanted to let you know what Leonid Elenin said in the official Comet Elenin group on Facebook: "Separation in Z axis about 0.01292 a.u. (Sep 27.0). Earth will pass through comet dust tail (delta = 0.3809 a.u.)." www.facebook.com...

If I understood him correctly, we will still pass through comet's tail. I'm actually looking forward to that

reply to post by wildespace

Thanks. I see what he is talking about.
I was thinking in terms of where the the comet crosses Earth's orbit after close approach.

Information varifying tail interaction with earth posted www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by bekod well this might might not help members.westnet.com.au...

Latest orbit update indicates that the comet will pass perihelion on September 10, 2011 at a distance of 0.48 AU, later encountering the Earth on October 17 at 0.23 AU.

i hope that works for you.

Note reference to tail interaction

A surge of 2 magnitudes is possible if the comet is dust rich. However, the comet is not expected to be observable from the ground and and any attempts to do so will be very risky!

here

C/2010 X1 Elenin The Great Binocular Comet of 2011 ? Closest to Sun on 10 Sep 2011 at 0.48AU Closest to Earth on 17 Oct 2011 at 0.23AU Maximum magnitude ?3-4 in Sep-Oct 2011 Left: Image of comet 2010 X1 Elenin. Right: Guide V8 software showing position of comet. 2011 Jan 28.5UT 15x10 second exposures. C11 SCT and starlight express CCD. current magnitude about 17.5-18.0 Fuzzy patch below centre is a galaxy! A Russian amateur astronomer, Leonid Elenin of Lyubertsy near Moscow, discovered a 19th magnitude comet on December 10, 2010 using a remotely controlled telescope situated in New Mexico, USA . Latest orbit update indicates that the comet will pass perihelion on September 10, 2011 at a distance of 0.48 AU, later encountering the Earth on October 17 at 0.23 AU. The observing circumstances from Earth's perspective are highly favourable as comets are concerned. The close passage to the Sun and later close encounter with Earth are important factors in producing bright comets, especially if the solar encounter causes disruption to the nucleus, releasing dust particles. What is also interesting about this comet is that its inclination is only 1.8 degrees from Earths orbit. We will observe the comet edge-on throughout the apparition, enhancing the dust tail and trail, should the comet be dust rich. Maximum brightness at this stage is difficult to predict, but may appear visible to the unaided eye at 4th magnitude, when well situated in the evening sky for Southern hemisphere observers during early September 2011. By mid September, it continues to brighten but is lost to evening twilight. By late September, it passes 2 degrees from the Sun and should be visible through the SOHO C3 coronagraph (between Sep 23 and 29), and STEREO A&B spacecraft. A maximum phase angle of 177 degrees is reached around September 26. Dust is very efficient at forward scattering of sunlight. A surge of 2 magnitudes is possible if the comet is dust rich. However, the comet is not expected to be observable from the ground and and any attempts to do so will be very risky! During early October, comet Elenin reappears in dawn skies for Northern hemisphere observers. Southerners need to wait until mid-October before the comet is sufficiently high enough for observation, but moonlight will interfere until October 23rd.

Hope this adds to the debate.also the russians are trying to observe asteroids being perturbed(moved) by the comet !

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by gringoboy reply to post by Phage

 

No the russians are observing this comet (Elenine)as it traverses through the asteroid on convergences with asteroids as it approaches , and as it states if they can`t see it from ground based telescopes they will employ larger telescopes between 18th february to 18th of june 2011 to attempt to see the occurence through the belt! Which as they are implying would mean the orbits of said asteroids changing and requiring recalibration of orbit of said asteroids. However they have been unable at present to see the changes,as quoted at the end.The convergence has already occurred. very interesting.

Comet Elenina entered the asteroid belt, while it is in a rarefied part of it, near the far border. Due to the fact that the orbit of the comet is unique in its small inclination for long-period comets (the second example could be the comet C/2007 N3 (Lulin), it was decided to calculate the close encounters of the comet with the main belt asteroids. Search encounters held on the interval from 18 February to 18 June 2011, with the help of software package ArtemisSIMULATOR. Refine approach distances were held in the program EPOS. As a result, 4 were found convergence: - 28 February 1999 with the asteroid TV67, distance 1,774,707 km (0.012 AU); - April 7, with the asteroid 4336 Jasniewicz, distance of 1,119,713 km (0.008 AU); - April 19, with the asteroid 2009 TJ9, distance 325,428 km (0.002 AU); - May 20, with the asteroid 1999 RQ176, distance 338,403 km (0.002 AU) Of particular interest are the last two flights, astroid will pass through a sufficiently dense dust tail of a comet. Perhaps we will be able to capture the data closer to using large telescopes. Determine the influence of gravitational perturbations of a comet to an asteroid, using ground-based optical observations, unfortunately not succeed.

edit on 4-3-2011 by gringoboy because: (no reason given)

Please stand by!

edit on 4-3-2011 by gringoboy because: (no reason given)

reply to post by Phage

Phage you need to stop putting peeps down. You may think you know everything there is to know in the universe but your rude, perturbing manner gets on loads of ATS members nerves.

You have been found out as in the thread that I had commented on and you tried to flame one of the commentators but it backfired on you as illustrated:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I am making a point in question to the contradictory statements people make in trying to bring others comment down. As you will read phage slags off Daz for using the science.nasa.gov website saying his sources are garbage.

Phage: I'm sure you can post garbage "sources" for weeks. How about some that makes some sense.

Daz: At least I have garbage sources. Have you brought anything to the table yet. Or is it your objective to spread disinformation and derail the thread. LINEAR may have disappointed casual stargazers, but it is intriguing professional astronomers with unpredictable behavior including jets that are perturbing the comet's orbit and an outburst in July that may have sent a fragment hurtling away from the comet's core. science.nasa.gov now continue with your disinformation. peace to you daz__

As you will read phage then uses the same source to back up his theory:

Yes, the orbit of comets can be affected by jets but not enough so you would notice, unless you were around for a long time. LINEAR S4's erratic jets make predicting the long term fate of the comet tricky. "The large nongravitational effect complicates the calculation of long-term motion," continued Marsden. "Without the nongravitational effect, comet LINEAR would be back in some 30,000 years. With it, I don't know." science.nasa.gov...

So you see the dilemma of how you can get caught out when you 'forget' you are using the garbage sources in your research as well??? CASE CLOSED please move on and check your facts before you blow your trumpet again. Taste of your own medicine springs to mind!

reply to post by kalenga


Comet elenine is coming no matter what is the case,and technically anyone who posts on elenine,niburu,tyche is a hoaxer.Elenine is highly speculative subject matter as being a rare new find but is not a hoax by any means,neither is yu55 asteroid although simulations do limit its impact trajectory to within 100 years from now ,which took NASA sometime to exclude and the same can be said for Elenine,all these bodies are being observed which is worth something.
Its coming no matter and possibly reorbiting asteroids into new orbits, time will tellwww.abovetopsecret.com... exciting times ahead .

reply to post by gringoboy


The tail of this thing if it gets close, or dusts our atmosphere is going to be Catastrophic and is told in the myths and legends of old all over the world, coinciding with reset buttons and disasters. And the comet tail of Honda, on its more recent pass, flung meteors out at Venus.

The tails are dangerous.

reply to post by Unity_99


We went though the tail of Halley's comet in 1910 and suffered no ill effects.

reply to post by Unity_99


Heres a interesting comet from nasahere Talk about no niburu`s

Astronomers say Mira's tail offers a unique opportunity to study how stars like our sun die and ultimately seed new solar systems. Mira is an older star called a red giant that is losing massive amounts of surface material. As Mira hurtles along, its tail sheds carbon, oxygen and other important elements needed for new stars, planets and possibly even life to form. This tail material, visible now for the first time, has been released over the past 30,000 years.

and nasa
from article proving dangers of comets and cme`s from sun.

Comet Encke was traveling within the orbit of Mercury when a CME scrunched the tail and eventually tore it off the comet. Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) made the observations using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) in NRL's Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) telescope suite aboard NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A spacecraft.

I hope this deludes the deluded although fragments can break of and hit earth,it is rare but can occur.

reply to post by kalenga

Whom did I "put down"? An anonymous astronomer?

Please indicate where what I said in another thread "backfired". Perhaps you should have included the context of that discussion.

never mind the naysayers. when it comes to comets the so called experts have no idea how to predict where an object is going to be. comets are the lawless ones and their orbits change by the hour. the best minds in nasa could not predict where comet hale bopp was going and were constantly left scratching their heads and updating their orbit predictions.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The context was that the orbits of comets could be so wildly unpredictable that they could change enough to become an impact risk. The claim was that Hale-Bopp was completely beyond the ability of prediction. I showed proof that the accuracy of the orbit was good as a result of the first observations and very good with later observations. The orbital elements did not appreciably change. There was no head scratching about the orbit.

All of the comets mentioned followed their predicted orbits to within the calculated margins of error as has the orbit of Elenin. With more observations that margin of error is lessened.

It was not I who moved the goalposts in that discussion.

Originally posted by gringoboy
reply to post by Unity_99

 

Heres a interesting comet from nasahere

That's no comet, if you care to read the article. It's a star that's travelling through interstellar space with great velocity. The tail is only visible in UV.

and nasa
from article proving dangers of comets and cme`s from sun.

Comet Encke was traveling within the orbit of Mercury when a CME scrunched the tail and eventually tore it off the comet. Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) made the observations using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) in NRL's Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) telescope suite aboard NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A spacecraft.

I hope this deludes the deluded

Dangers of comets and cme's from the Sun? I fail to see any such notion from that article. The Sun IS dangerous to comets when they get too close, but it doesn't affect us here on Earth.

reply to post by wildespace


Its a pun for niburu types ,oh dear seriousness prevails again,Elenine is a new comet and is entering into its crib.Incoming data will reassure of less danger but thats months away ,hence the russians observing the asteroids near the comet in 18 feb -18th june.It is a interesting comet and no doubt will be discussed until it passes, hopefully without incidence but there are margins for error as earlier post reveals.
Thanks Gringo.
Realiable source NASA

Comet Encke was traveling within the orbit of Mercury when a CME scrunched the tail and eventually tore it off the comet. Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) made the observations using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) in NRL's Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) telescope suite aboard NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A spacecraft.

Well history would be in the making if a chunk splintered off as can be proved in quote above.
if you don`t believe watch this
DENY IGNORANCE. DENY DISINFO.