Southern Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon Watch 2011-2012, page 1

We start early down here in the Southern Hemisphere
And we call our Hurricanes - Cyclones.

First one for 2011 is TC Vania, tracking from Vanuatu down across New Caledonia into the Tasman Sea NW of New Zealand.

Of more concern is the next one TC Zelia, which looks like its going to finish up dead centre of the North Island on the 19th. Looks like Rain and Wind next week for us.

The best source I have found for tracking Indian and Pacific Ocean Cyclones is;
www.australiasevereweather.com...

Great thread and post OP!
Have you checked this site out for info too? www.hurricanezone.net...
There's lots of things to play around with on there.
Cheers!

reply to post by muzzy

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Great job getting this going, and adding the Cyclone/Typhoon elements as well since they were not really covered under the Hurricane thread from last year.

Here are some of the links that I like to use:

National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Stormpulse
www.stormpulse.com...

Swellfinder
www.windfinder.com...

FEMA
www.fema.gov...

Red Cross
redcross.org...

Star and Flag!

Originally posted by crazydaisy
Great thread! I am familiar with the hurricane/cyclone charts in the US and was wondering how I might read the one you put up. Also do you have categories for your cyclones as we have for hurricanes in the US - Category 1 thru 4 with 4 being the worse? I hope this one misses land - we need this thread, big changes recently in the weather patterns. S @ F Stay safe

Think I will go to Stormpulse.com to take a look at the satellite image for this cyclone.

Actually, in the States we have category 1 through 5... 5 is the worst.

Here is the Fiji Met Office site, with Cyclone information
www.met.gov.fj...

Maps here www.met.gov.fj...

latest on TC Vania from Fiji Met Off
www.met.gov.fj...

TC Vania latest (JTWC)
Remarks:
150900z position near 27.2S 165.9E.
Extratropical cyclone (tc) o5p (Vania), located approximately 245 nm south of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked south-southwestward at 22 knots during the past six hours. the system is no longer tropical and has subtropical jet support. it is rapidly exiting the tropics. This is the final warning on this system by the JTWC. the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. maximum significant wave height at 150600z is 17 feet.
www.usno.navy.mil...

TC Zelia latest (JTWC)
remarks:
151500z position near 15.9s 153.7e.
Tropical Cyclone (TC) 07p (Zelia), located approximately 730 nm north of Brisbane, Australia, has tracked southeastward at 06 knots over the past six hours. After maintaining 55 knots for the past day the cyclone has now begun to intensify. The initial forecast intensity is assessed at 60 knots based on dvorak estimates from pgtw and abrf. A 150753z windsat microwave image shows a clear cut microwave eye and sheds fair to high confidence on the 12z position. The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify in favorable waters and low vertical wind shear. The cyclone will accelerate generally southeastward in the wake of ex TC 05p Vania in a high amplitude pattern towards the mid-latitudes. The cyclone will begin extratropical transition near 30s and complete to the west of New Zealand. Maximum significant wave height at 151200z is 21 feet.
next warnings at 160300z and 161500z.
www.usno.navy.mil...

Wind stilling over the continents of the Northern hemisphere in the last 30 years

Source

A study published on 17 October 2010 in the journal Nature Geoscience shows that over the past three decades, surface wind speeds seem to have noticeably decreased in several regions of the world, such as the United States, China, Australia, and in several European countries. Given the often inadequate quality and heterogeneity of wind data measured by anemometers, no long-term study of the evolution of wind speeds on a global scale had been carried out so far.

Despite the fact that this was a study of surface winds, and wind turbines tend to be above mean SL - normally 50m +, this is still an indication that something has changed in the world. Far from the alarmist cries of bigger better badder storms this would indicate the opposite would it not? Does this spell even more problems ahead for wind power?

Only last night we observed at home as the wind got up that the weather was turning 'Irish' again - quite like old times. I was thinking about that this morning since that would suggest that we - at 101 metres - are experiencing the same effects.

reply to post by PuterMan

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Thats an interesting observation, it seems the opposite down here, the winds seem to be a constant this year, pretty much since Spetember. We are in a El Nino pattern which means more wind for us.
Usually October is the worst but this year it seems its always windy.
It could be just my own perseption though I have been working on a roof of a 5 story building for the last month, calm day are rare at that height.

NZ is playing Pakistan in a Cicket Test here in Wellington right now, its on TV, it has been so windy the first 2 days the Umpires had to change their head gear from the Panama hats to Baseball Caps
Don't know if we'll get a result, rain from tommorrow.

The Fiji Met Office (in the link above) predict 6-7 Cyclones this season, maybe 3 Strong ones.

Still waiting for the two ex TC's to hit our area, expected to pass through tonight now.
Had a few showers early on this morning.
Very Humid here in Cook Strait

Heres the weather warning from NZ Met Service
A low is forecast to move over the northern South Island today. Another low, formerly Tropical Cyclone Zelia, lying northwest of Northland this morning will likely pass west of Northland and Auckland this afternoon and evening, move over the southern North Island tonight and pass west of the Chatham Islands late on Wednesday. The path of this second low is still somewhat uncertain, but both these lows are forecast to bring very humid conditions and a period of heavy rain and northerly gales over much of northern and central New Zealand today and early Wednesday. The heaviest falls of 200 to 250mm are expected near the ranges of Westland, Buller and Nelson north of about Franz Josef.Expect 70 to 150mm about the Marlborough Sounds, in the southwest of the North Island, and in a belt from Taranaki to southern Waikato across the central North Island to eastern Bay of Plenty and the north of the Gisborne region, but up to 200mm on some ranges. Streams and rivers are expected to rise quickly and there are likely to be slips and surface flooding on some roads.The strongest winds will depend mainly on the track of the second low. At this stage they are likely to be from Taranaki and Taumarunui to Taihape and inland Wanganui with gusts around 130 km/h in exposed places this evening. Note that there is a watch for possible severe gales in many other exposed North Island areas also Marlborough Sounds and parts of Nelson. There is the potential for damage to trees, powerlines and insecure roofs, and driving conditions could be hazardous.
www.metservice.com...

Messy.
this is the map for rainfall at 7pm tonight

reply to post by muzzy

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Thanks for the Thread Muzzy. I am not use to watching the hurricanes other than those that develop in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. Will try and watch your area but am at the moment under a Winter Storm Warning yet again- Expecting 8" of snow tonight along with a bunch of Ice. --- Makes for a great sliegh ride down my driveway tomorrow though = no work cause i'll be throwoing sand on the driveway after fun is done . Be well my friend.

Two more Tropical Cyclones, Wilma currently over Samoa, heading for New Zealand

Looks like to pass over us 7pm next Friday to 7pm Sunday according to the Met Service models
metservice.com...
I actually find the Fiji Met Office Advisories easier to read then the USNavy, they actually say whats happening without all the BS
www.met.gov.fj...

And TC Anthony currently in the Coral Sea headed straight for New Caledonia



FWIW just had a Tropical Depression pass over the North Island last few days, flooding in Auckland and Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Firth of Thames area. nz.news.yahoo.com...
Very strong SW winds here in Cook Strait for last 5 days, rained all day yesterday, seems to be easing this morning, still spitting at 8am

reply to post by muzzy

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Appreciate the update!

I know it is very far out, but could TC Anothony linger once it gets brushed off the coast of Australia? Do these storms spin the same way as our hurricanes? I would hate to see it spinning moisture south at the end of it's projected trajectory on the great graph you provided. Isn't that the area that is already saturated?

Thanks in advance. Been a hurricane tracker for a long time, but I'm new to looking at storms in the southern hemisphere, and I am looking for to learning a lot.

reply to post by lasertaglover

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Yeah latest map has it turning back towards the East Coast of Au.
www.usno.navy.mil...

Wilma is over Tonga right now 8:56pm , airport is closed.
www.usno.navy.mil...
Southern Hemisphere Cyclone rotate in the opposite direction to NH Hurricanes, same as water down the plug hole

Is the Herald Sun decent for news in that region?

www.heraldsun.com.au...

"QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh has reactivated the state disaster management group as two possible cyclones threaten to hit within days of each other.
Cyclone Anthony could intensify from a category one to a category three storm and hit the Burdekin Coast, between Cardwell and Bowen, on Monday, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says.

Meanwhile, it's feared a tropical low about 1500km northeast of Vanuatu could build into a category four cyclone and hit north of Gladstone on Thursday.

"In a worst-case scenario, Queensland could see two tropical cyclones cross the coast in a matter of three or four days," Ms Bligh told reporters in Brisbane."

ex TC Wilma crossing the top of the North Island right now.

nz.news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover

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Well it's mainstream media, but that news is about the general concensus in all the media outlets. These are the forecast maps for the next 4 days in Australia:

reply to post by muzzy

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Hey Muzzy, hope all is well down your way. It seemed to go through fairly quick. Was there much damage or rain?

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