Lebanon government likely to fall today... Confirmed : will fall today

It's all democratic, Hezbollah leaves the coalition, government falls, new elections...

Hezbollah to quit Lebanon govt. over STL

Lebanon's resistance movement Hezbollah and its allies have said they will relinquish from the Lebanese government unless their demands over the US-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafiq Hariri are met.

"If the cabinet fails to meet, it means there is no government and as such 11 ministers will tender their resignations this afternoon," Lebanese Health Minister Mohamad Jawad Khalifeh told AFP on Wednesday.

Hariri is SURE to not cancel the UN tribunal on his father's murder... of course, Hezbollah is likely to blame for the assassination... which Hezbollah said would not accept and would cut the hand to whoever tries to arrest one of it's members. The evidence is not clear on who REALLY killed Hariri... Iran/Hezbollah/Mossad/Syria...

Hariri is in Washington DC right now and Hezbollah and it's allies plan to leave the government coalition at the same time Hariri planned meeting with Obama.

Now... if there's new elections, and Hezbollah gain even more seats... or win a majority, I doubt Israel/US would accept that... and invade Lebanon. Or claim that Hezbollah was planning an armed coup and invade anyway.

Israel is stepping up the gathering of information over Lebanon.
Two Israeli warplanes have penetrated the Lebanese airspace and flown over parts of the country in flagrant violation of a UN Security Council resolution.

And on the coast... wouldn't surprise me if that was a spy ship.
Israel ship prompts high alert in Lebanon

Israel has deployed a naval vessel dangerously close to the Lebanese coast, prompting Beirut to put the Armed Forces on high alert.

Something big will likely happen in Lebanon in the next few days. Hopefully this will not culminate in a war... but with Israel/Hezbollah... and Hamas's allies stepping up the rockets attacks on Israel in the last few days... while Hamas calling for calm because they were warned through the back channels that if they didn't stop launching rockets against Israel, war would ensue...

This is going on...and boiling over... while everyone is too focused on either NKorea... the financial crisis... China's military rise... or the killing in Arizona... Nobody is watching the middle-east.

EDIT : Allies of Hezbollah : Syria (arming Hezbollah but from their own words, too weak), Iran and Hamas..maybe parts of the Lebanese army... Jordan just signed a military pact with Lebanon.
Allies of Hariri : USA-Israel.

And Turkey said they would not stand still if Israel invaded Lebanon.

Hizbullah Hezbollah and its allies plan to resign from the Lebanese Cabinet on Wednesday, a move that would likely topple the government over tensions stemming from the international investigation into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, officials said.

12:45pm VDL (100.5): Suleiman’s visitors confirmed that Hariri informed the president his rejection to set an immediate date for a cabinet session.

Meaning Hariri refused Hezbollah demand... meaning they will quit and new elections will happen. Government will fall within hours.

STL indictment may be issued next Monday

That's why Hezbollah wants elections before it comes out... if they can take power before it's released... they can close it.

Israel warplanes make mock attacks over South
How peaceful.

Hezbollah members reportedly mobilized

Hezbollah and some other March 8 parties are implementing an unannounced mobilization of their members in readiness for any negative developments, according to an anonymous Hezbollah source.

“Hezbollah is on alert for any negative escalation of the political situation in the country,” the source told NOW Lebanon in an interview published on Wednesday.

This is serious business.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Could you list the Allies of both or who defends whom in case this escalates please?

An invasion of Lebanon? Seriously mate, I think your going a little bit to far with that one..
Maybe one day, but that won't happen until the west find out there are billions of barrells of oil reserves there...

reply to post by Vitchilo


wouldn't this be the time for Hezbollah to stage a coup against Lebanon government? If they walk away, an unstable government would allow Israel a perfect opportunity to attack. Either way, this would escalate into a war situation. Not good at all.

Originally posted by Misterlondon
An invasion of Lebanon? Seriously mate, I think your going a little bit to far with that one..
Maybe one day, but that won't happen until the west find out there are billions of barrells of oil reserves there...

Actually, there's over a billion barrels of natural gas just sitting on the Lebanon-Israel border. Of course, both says it's theirs. So there's a ``oil`` factor here.

Not to mention... you really think Israel/US would allow Lebanon to be openly and fully controlled by Hezbollah? It would be an open base of operations for Iran right on Israel's border.

No way in hell Israel would accept that.

Not to mention, Israel always said.... if one country uses chemical/biological weapons against Israel, Israel will retaliate with nukes... as they should since chemical and biological weapons are WMDs. Israel deployed nukes when Saddam launched Scuds with chemical weapons on Israel back in 91.. they nearly nuked Baghdad but were only stopped because of the US promising them lots of money and lots of arms if they did not nuke Baghdad.

wouldn't this be the time for Hezbollah to stage a coup against Lebanon government? If they walk away, an unstable government would allow Israel a perfect opportunity to attack. Either way, this would escalate into a war situation. Not good at all.

Hezbollah is staging a ``legal`` coup against the government by withdrawing... that means new elections... they could win the election... or lose seats... if they lose seats, they could claim election fraud, true or not, and war would break out...

Indeed the next week or two will be crucial for Lebanon.

You know what? I really don't care what happens in the Middle East anymore. We need to start minding our own business and taking care of our growing domestic issues. You know, little things like a 9% plus unemployment rate, a 14 trillion dollar plus deficit, the gradual curtailing of freedoms all in the name of security, etc. Little things like that.

reply to post by peter_kandra


I agree with you, but in the middle-east, there's oil. And if war breaks out and Iran join in, the Hormuz strait could get closed... or just the news of it being in danger, oil will spike... and the US economy, which is a fraud, will go KABOOM overnight... which the elite would like to blame it on Iran...

EDIT : Now even Haaretz is reporting it...
Hezbollah threatens to topple Lebanon government over Hariri probe

Group says its ministers and their allies will resign unless PM agrees to urgent cabinet meeting on probe into murder of former premier.

Which he just did half an hour ago.

So serious it's affecting the Lebanese stock market.

Minutes after the Beirut Stock Exchange opened, the shares of the giant development company Solidere - the largest company listed on the stock exchange - dropped about 7 percent.

reply to post by Vitchilo


S&F.
Figures the war depends on whether or not Hezbollah gets elected.

This is really BIG.

This is not good for Israel, the west, and America.

This is good for Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria

So if Hezbollah does leave, we should expect Israel and USA to start making moves in that region.

Many people dont understand the fact that America is doing what its doing only for Israel. With that huge debt america still chooses to pump up the israeli military. They are building an army in israel. Lebanon is bordering Israel, its not Iran or NK, they fear that Hezbollah might then take full control of the country... of course this will lead to another civil war, another proxy war...

We shall know at 9AM Eastern if the Lebanese government falls today.

Khalife: Opposition Meets at 4pm Wednesday to Determine Next Steps

Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalife on Wednesday said the current government headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri is finished if no decision to convene a Cabinet meeting was taken today.

I would say 90%+ chances of Lebanese government falling today.

One of those things can happen...
- Hezbollah wins next election... Israel doesn't accept, invades.
- Hezbollah loses next election... claim fraud... civil war breaks out.
- Hezbollah loses next election... accepts it... STL released... Hezbollah member indicted...they try to arrest them... civil war breaks out.
- Hezbollah loses next election... accepts it... STL released... no Hezbollah member indicted...peace (very unlikely)
- Hezbollah loses next election... accepts it... STL released... Hezbollah member indicted... nobody is arrested because of fear of civil war.

reply to post by Vitchilo

We shall know at 9AM Eastern if the Lebanese government falls today.

So a little under an hour to wait...

I'm not being snip or snide, but, well, what should we expect???

peace

Originally posted by silo13
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

We shall know at 9AM Eastern if the Lebanese government falls today.

So a little under an hour to wait...

I'm not being snip or snide, but, well, what should we expect???

peace

what time would that be in UK time?

reply to post by RizeorDie


Well what's your time in 40 minutes?

We shall see.

Originally posted by silo13
what should we expect???

peace

Probably expect a similar outcome as last time...

The last time Hezbollah walked out of a government, quitting the Cabinet of then-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in 2006, it marked the start of an 18-month paralysis of the government. That culminated in an outbreak of civil strife in May 2008, when at least 80 people were killed after Hezbollah and its allies seized control of west Beirut.

Lebanon's Hezbollah, Allies to Quit Cabinet in Impasse

Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by peter_kandra

 

I agree with you, but in the middle-east, there's oil. And if war breaks out and Iran join in, the Hormuz strait could get closed... or just the news of it being in danger, oil will spike... and the US economy, which is a fraud, will go KABOOM overnight... which the elite would like to blame it on Iran...

EDIT : Now even Haaretz is reporting it...
Hezbollah threatens to topple Lebanon government over Hariri probe

Group says its ministers and their allies will resign unless PM agrees to urgent cabinet meeting on probe into murder of former premier.

Which he just did half an hour ago.

So serious it's affecting the Lebanese stock market.

Minutes after the Beirut Stock Exchange opened, the shares of the giant development company Solidere - the largest company listed on the stock exchange - dropped about 7 percent.

edit on 12-1-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

I know. Every president since Carter or so has promised to continue the push towards energy independence. I haven't seen too much progress though. Gas is at or over $3 again in most parts of the country. I actually lied...I do care what happens in the Middle East...I have 2 sons ages 14 and 10 and I'd hate to see them drafted in a future military conflict. We really need a president and congress who will pass through legislature and give huge tax incentives for renewable energy projects. We need a new generation of nuclear reactors that can make a dent in oil imports and we need to continue increasing the CAFE on automakers.

Hezbollah will likely withdraw... and the government will fall... at the same time Hariri meets Obama... which by then would make no sense since Hariri will have no more power in Lebanon...

This is like an elaborate insult against Hariri.

EDIT: The indictment could even be within HOURS... not days or even weeks... big things will happen real fast.

UPDATE :

3:15pm Future News: Ankara and Riyadh demanded that the Lebanese government be maintained.

So now Turkey and Saudi Arabia come in...

3:06pm Baabda sources to LBC: There is no indication that State Minister Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein would resign if the opposition ministers do.

So they need to find someone else so the government falls...that MIGHT be a problem...

3:05pm MTV from opposition sources: Hariri will only meet Obama as a resigned prime minister.

See...

2:48pm Sources to Al-Jadeed: Some of the Opposition leaders who are not represented in the cabinet have been invited to the Opposition meeting that will be held today, such as former minister Skaff. The meeting will be held at 6:00 p.m., not at 4:00 p.m.

Ah... so delayed until at least 11AM ET.

# 15:06
Sources: Egypt warns Hamas that Israel might launch new Gaza war to curb rocket attacks (Reuters)

Told ya.

The US works for israel, the only reason the US is in the middle east is to protect israel

Israeli and American military officials indicate that the US would resort to military measures if Hezbollah reacts violently to the International Tribunal's potential indictment of its members

US considers Military action against Hezbollah

Israel is in great danger and for that reason israel and the US will move very quickly with stupid decisions

reply to post by Vitchilo


Not surprising since the UN implicated Hezzbullah as being behind the assasination of the former Prime Minister. I am curious how some of their die hard supporters is going to play this off... I am surprised Mossad has not been blamed for being behind Hezzbullah.

I feel sorry for the citizens of Lebanon who have to deal with Hezzbullah and the suffering they are bringing.

Hezbollah Plans to Topple Lebanese Government

The Islamic militant group Hezbollah and its allies plan to resign from the Lebanese Cabinet and topple the government on Wednesday over tensions stemming from the international investigation of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, officials said.

The ministers were planning to resign in the afternoon unless Western-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri — the son of the slain leader — agrees to their demand to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting over the tribunal crisis, Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh said on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV.

A senior official in Hariri's Future Movement, Mustafa Alloush, said Hariri would not succumb to "pressure and ultimatums."

Its funny how their loyalties shift from loving the UN when they released their report on Israli actions and the floatilla (and some wikileaks are showing Hezzbollah committed some war crimes from that incident, including some of the people who were killed were members of Hezzbollah) to dencouncing the UN as a puppet of Israel and the US when the report on the assasination comes out.

Anyone who agrees with the report, according to a Hezzbollah MP said they would be executed as supporters of Israel.

reply to post by Vitchilo

Not to mention... you really think Israel/US would allow Lebanon to be openly and fully controlled by Hezbollah? It would be an open base of operations for Iran right on Israel's border.

Its already occured when Syria occupied Lebanon... One of the reasons for the occupation of the souther ortion of Lebanon was to create a buffer zone where hezzbollah rockets could not hit Israeli territory.

Now that Israel has withdrawn from Southern Lebanon, and is in the process of turning over a border village back to Lebanon (Syria is pissed because they claim the village is theres) Hezzbollah has no standing to attack Israel anymore.

Which is precisely why I see them brining the Government down, reforming under their own banner (which yes its legal - until they dont allow elections) and being used to fight yet another proxy war against Israel by Iran and Syria.

reply to post by Xcathdra


I doubt very much Israel, especially with Netanyahu at the helm, will allow Hezbollah to win the election... After all, Israel didn't accept Hamas even if they were democratically elected.

NNA: March 8 ministers have prepared resignation statements

March 8 coalition ministers have prepared their statements of resignation from the cabinet, the National News Agency (NNA) reported on Wednesday.

Preparations are complete for a meeting of March 8 ministers at Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun’s residence in Rabieh at 4:30 p.m, the report added.

Meeting should take place in about 20 minutes.

Apparently, in a ``total coincidence`` Israel has been doing big military maneuvers off the Israel coast in the last 3 days. Yeah I'm sure it's a coincidence.

Israel is preparing for all contingencies, including war.

Just from this morning...

Home front commander: Tel Aviv will be hit by missiles during next war (Haaretz)

What a coincidence.

And yesterday :

Saudis, Syria fail to reach deal on Lebanon tension (Reuters)

UPDATE :

NOW Lebanon’s correspondent: March 8 ministers arrive in Rabieh

So now those who will resign have arrived at the meeting.