Slow-Leaks: Release of Cablegate Files to Take Twenty Years?

Last Saturday evening during a discussion with a friend about current events, the subject of Wikileaks came up. He's not much of a follower in terms of what's being released; instead, he casually follows the story as reported by the mainstream media. I briefly described some of the things that I'd found interesting, admitting that I'd probably read only 5% of the cables that had been released. It was at that moment I'd remember the overall count on the Cablegate page showing the total progress of the cable release:


(Will edit with direct link if this doesn't display correctly; doesn't seem to be working in preview)

The first batch of cables was released on November tenth, meaning that the leaking has been an ongoing process over the past 62 days. If we take a look at the total number of released cables to date, we see 2017 as of this post. Averaging the total number of posts over the total number of days gives us 32.53 cables released per day. Let's subtract the released cables from the total number of cables, which is 251,287. That leaves us with a number of 249,270. If we divide that by the average number of cables released per day, that tells us that by this average, releasing the remainder of the cables will taker roughly 7,553.64 days. Divide that by 365, the number of days in a year and you get 20.69, or nearly 21 years.

Now, watch me do it with less words, just because executing the above was so much fun!

2017 cables released over
62 days
= approx. 33/day

249,270 cables remain
33 released/day
= approx. 7,554 days

7,554 days converted to years
= approx. 21 years



I, for one, do not wish to wait that long! Suspense is one thing, but this, in my opinion, is kind of unfair. My mildly-interested friend even though it odd. Now, granted, there's no indication that the leaks will continue at this slow of a pace, but:

1) If Assange has ALL of the files, why not put them out?
2) If other organizations have indeed acquired the files, as some papers are reporting, why don't we all have them yet?
3) Why are we, as a population, especially here on ATS, content to sit back and watch this unfold like it's a soap-opera, rather than contact Wikileaks directly to encourage the immediate release of the information. Public interest is public interest.

There is a related thread here. The topic explores why it's taking so long for the release. Good speculation.

Did this realization dawn on you a long time ago, and I'm just a bit slow on the intake?

Looking forward to your comments and ideas!

-Eleph

Nice math, but there's no reason the future rate should resemble the past rate. It's not like you are computing the time it takes to get to Mars. If it DOES take that long, then Epic Fail. So far the cables afre hardly earth-shattering. They amount to some diplomatic gossip. Governments are not going to rise and fall on this stuff. Surely if there were important revelations to be had, they would already have been reveealed.

I suspect the release of the cables is slow because they are so utterly boring that the promise of more cables is more newsworthy than the cables themselves. Assange has milked this about as far as he can. He got his $1.5 million book contract and all we got are these lousy cables.

reply to post by schuyler


Well said. I agree that the rate most likely will not remain constant. I also agree that the content of the cables so far is not damaging enough to bring down governments. I think an accurate adjective being thrown around is "embarassing."

Thanks for your input.

Edit to add: 33 being the average, January's releases thus far include one date where only 3 cables were released, one with only 7, and one with only 8. Maybe more food for thought?

But if it is a constant rate, and I don't think the current rate will stand, but if the rate is current it will simply be a ploy to keep the spot light on the site. I have a feeling that there is a well defined time line designed to have maximum impact on global politics. Notice that the big Sh** Storm about this seemed to flared up around the midterm elections? I wonder if they had anything to do with the rate and magnitude of the leaks?

reply to post by Obinhi


I believe it's valid to discuss the timing.

Say that the "average" (which may no longer be a good thing to cite) shoots up to 200 per day. It will still take 2.25 years to release the motherload. Are we possibly waiting for an 'incident' where Wikileaks will be 'forced' to release the rest of the cables in bulk?

Stay vigilant.

Assange is following the strategies of Sun Tsu's Art of War - among others.

Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate. — Sun Tzu

Hehe...check this out. Released this morning...

Checked again this morning.

5,116 cables have been released over 94 days.

If you haven't had a chance to look the cables over, I'd recommend it...just bring a tall glass of water and some aspirin.

The new "average" is 54 cables per day since they began releasing them.

At the current rate, it will now take 12.7 years to release the remainder of the data.