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The problem with discussing SHTF scenarios.

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posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 07:22 PM
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After a while, you seem to notice a pattern. A kind of ingrained disposition that a lot of survivalist have. That disposition makes it hard to construct logical contingency plans for any SHTF scenario.

They always lay out a situation that is predisposed to a specific outcome. A premise, so to speak. A situation that isn’t exactly grounded in reality. A situation that they will not compromise on. That is what the survivors will be presented with, no ifs ands or buts.

The situation they construct in their head has perplexed me to some extent. When I try to logically discuses some of the premises of their hypothetical situation, they will just ignore you. It is almost like they have no firm understanding of why it will be that way, but that is the way they want it to be.

When I try to break down a list of what will, and won’t work, the usually answer will be…. “All of that modern junk will be dead” or something of the like. Where they put the demarcation point indicating the dividing point between “good stuff”, and “modern junk” depends upon the person you are discussing it with.

If you can’t logically pin down what will and won’t be damaged, destroyed, then it is kind of hard to put together an action plan to deal with what is left. Because, according to a lot of them, nothing will be left.

I often wonder if I am ever going to run across a person that will tell me that an anvil will be rendered unusable by an EMP. It is only a mater of time.

It is almost like they construct the situation, not based on an actual understanding of the possible damage, but what would have to be damaged to get the result they want. And why would they want that result? Well. It almost seams like it stems from their hatred with everything modern. They are looking for a reason to justify their hatred. They grasp on different SHTF scenarios to justify why they hate modern life. In their mind, they say that it leaves us too vulnerable to outside forces, so we should go back to a simpler life to get away from those vulnerabilities. It is almost like they are hoping that situation X will happen so they can be justified in their hatred. They will have the chance to say “I told you so!”. They run through their mind that “Everyone else will be sorry for relying on that modern junk”.

That is why they say that “everything modern will be rendered useless” It doesn’t fit reality, it fits what they want to happen. That will allow them to say “I told you so” and give them a reason to throw off all the shackles of modern life for a “Simpler life” where you are free to settle down in the wide open spaces and start your own little homestead with your own little family and friends. And that is also ignoring a fact that another thread pointed out, that other people are already on that land and might not appreciate you dropping in.

Their premise for how communications will happen is one of the main things that opened my eyes to the flawed model. I have toyed with communications for many years (ham radio and the like). I know how what communications goes on behind the scenes to deal with disasters. I have listened to it time and time again. So, when I tried to grasp the premise for how they thought that survivors would communicate amongst each other, I found it quite hard to grasp. It is a premise that has been played out on post Armageddon TV shows, and repeated by people contemplating post SHTF worlds.

Their model of how people will communicate goes as such……… People in small groups will communicate amongst themselves…….. Those small groups will not constructively communicate with other small groups. The small groups will not form into larger groups and communicate with larger groups. That will cause the small groups to become fractured and isolated from the rest of the community and break off to form their own little “communities” and fight amongst the other communities until the city comes apart at the seams. They are basically ignoring basic human behavior to support their model.

The reason they do that, is they believe that everyone should settle down into small sustainable farming communes. They also want the evil people that created this modern world to pay for it in blood, via riot and carnage. They construct the premise on how people communicate to achieve the desired result. If they adopted a more realistic premise then the logical conclusion to the constructed situation X wouldn’t be what they desired.

The illogical construct called situation X begets an illogical conclusion. The conclusion is illogical, but it is the one that they want. Based not upon a logical concept of how the world will respond to such situations, but what they want the world to become.

They are just grasping onto the hope that situation X will produce the result they want. So they construct the premises of situation X to obtain the desired result.

When you try to discus situation X with them to try and determine real world results, and try to construct real world contingency plans, you will get nowhere. That is because their ideas are not based in the real world. In fact, the real world is at odds with their ideas.

When you try to apply a real world premise to situation X you get very different results.

EMP for example………………
The one people have beat to death.
Worst case scenario. Everything with a semiconductor is destroyed, and 90 percent of the transformers on the grid are destroyed.

Lets step back to reality here. Everything that is based on a post 1800AD design will not magically cease to function for ever. The machines of the modern world are built upon the same metal that the rest of the world is made out of. If three is an EMP strong enough to destroy a diesel engine or make a battery cease to function, then there will be no one left to worry about it.

The knowledge that was used to build the modern things isn’t magically going to disappear. If they are broke, people will be able to find out what is broke and be able to fix it in time. The simple things first, the more complicated, later.

Modern things can still run without the help of electronics. Certain types of power stations can be operated or modified to operate manually. Things like electric motors will still run. Especially ones that wasn’t turned on/hooked up when the EMP hit. Power lines will not magically melt and fall from the poles.

The big stuff that is damaged doesn’t have to be completely replaced, it can be repaired, it happens all the time in the daily grind of the industrial world.

All the power plants in the country don’t have to be running to keep the cities livable.

People won’t start slashing each other’s throats after 5 hours of darkness. People keep pointing to Katrina saying that all cities will descend into that chaos. Um . No. That wasn’t the entire population of New Orleans. Most of them fled. The ones that was left, were the type that is normally not helpful in a disaster situation. And they are not the majority of the population. If the majority is there it will not let them act like that. The social pressure will prevent it. They had a hay day because the responsible people were away from home and they had a free pass. Katrina is not something you can use as a reference for the way a city with it’s full complement of people will act after a worst case EMP.

If there is large people movements, then the bad people will try to take advantage of them, but it has been shown time and time again, when you have more good than bad, then the bad are quickly put in their place.

PEOPLE WILL COMMUNICATE!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, a store is out of food, and there is some hungry people. The butcher at the local save a lot says he can get some beef on the shelves if they get him some beef sides, and a generator to run the cutting equipment. The group people from the emergency service and store head around to some of the local farms and see if any of the farmers have cows they can buy and know how to slaughter them to a point where the butcher at the store can take it from there. Most likely they will find what they need. Most cow farmers know how to do the basic slaughter and dressing process. They help the farmer kill 20 cows and hang em up to clean them and take the sides to the local stores. They get enough diesel generators to power the equipment at the local stores that have in house butcher shops and get the product rolling. Repeat as needed.

If they need corn meal, then go to the local grain farmers and buy corn right out of the silos. Bring a generator to the local feed mill, and go from there.

A good portion of diesel trucks will still run.

Food hasn’t disappeared because of an EMP. It is still in the warehouses and in the fields. They can’t call them because they have no phones, but they can hop in the truck with a big wad of money and drive to the warehouse and buy it in cash, or an IOU.

Food processing plants wont come to a halt. A lot of them are relatively simple and lack any critical automation that can’t be operated manually. Just get a power source to the plant to operate the required equipment to do the job.

Fuel will not cease to exist.
Refineries are complicated, but they can be operated manually by a skilled operator, which does exist. The diesel trucks will be available to haul the fuel.

Water can be found. Take a tanker truck to a known clean lake and use a pump to fill it and take it to the city for the water to be distributed. Repeat as necessary.

Cars will not block the road for the rest of eternity. Diesel construction equipment will still run which will be used to clear the roads. That will probably be done pretty quickly.

People won’t just hunker down in their house and point guns at anyone that walks down the street. When they need help to load or offload a truck of fuel food, or other supplies, people will come out to help. When times are hard, people come together to help, They always have, they always will. If the light line workers want to replace a transformer on a pole using a rope hoist, and they need extra manpower to pull the rope, they will ask a few people on the street, then the word will spread and the street will be filled with people coming out to help. That is the way that it has always worked, why expect anything different now?

The big stuff that is damaged (transformers, motors) will be taken to local shops that can take the stuff apart and fix what is damaged, so they can be reused.

There is old and new transformer stock setting around the country unused that won’t be damaged. It won’t be enough to replace all transformers, but there is enough to power essential services. Water pumping stations, sewage treatment, food production ecec……

There will be generating capacity that is not active during the EMP. Peaking stations, base load generators that are offline for maintenance. Ecec. They won’t be damaged. Those can be brought up to power the grid. No they won’t run everything. But even with 10 percent of normal power available (which I know it will be way over 10 percent), it will be able to run basic equipment to keep the city livable until stuff can be repaired. And the actual base load stations that didn’t get damaged by the EMP will be additional capacity to that.

Priority loads will be…… in order of priority.
Sewage treatment.
Water supply.
Refrigeration.
Food processing.
Fuel production.
Home food refrigeration.
Home heating. (if winter)
Basic lighting (comes dead last)

All the first five could be easily ran with 10 percent of the power grids normal capacity available.
Natural gas will still be available. It may take some work to fix things that were damaged, and to set things up to operate manually, but it can be done.

Trains will not cease to exist. There is plenty of older diesel locomotive (non electronically controlled) that can operate coal trains to supply power plants. You can even use some of the steam locos for transport service. Switches can be operated manually. If you don’t have trains to move the coal, then you can use diesel trucks.


And above all, there is countless people that know how to get the job done. They will talk to each other, they will get things organized and they will get things back to livable conditions in time.

Things that were destroyed can be rebuilt. An EMP can’t destroy the knowledge of how to build new stuff.


When times have been tough, the people of the world have always risen to the occasion. To think otherwise, is to grossly underestimate them.

When the German bombers obliterated London, they didn’t riot. When they bombed Moscow, they did not riot. When they bombed Warsaw, they did not riot. When they bombed Poland, they did not riot. When we firebombed Japan, they did not riot. When we bombed Berlin, they did not riot.

I can assure you the citizens were in far worse shape than we would be after an EMP. They didn’t have running water, they didn’t have power, they didn’t have working sewers at times. They often didn’t even have a place to stay in after their homes were destroyed. And worst of all, they had bombers flying overhead blowing up random buildings.

If those people didn’t go at each others throats after months of that crap, I think we can handle an EMP.




posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 07:51 PM
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to be honest.. i only read the start of your post, then bits and pieces until i reached the bottom.. and i havent got a clue what your talking about!



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 07:53 PM
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You are mostly right and I agree with you.
One thing you are not factoring in when this happens is the Human factor. humans are get nervous & scared when things change so much so quickly.

There are a lot of smart hard working people out there that can and will get things back on track given time.

There are also millions of lazy, ignorant people out there who have been living off the system for their whole lives
and could not contribute to rebuilding society if they wanted to, they don't know how.
All they know is how to pick up the food stamps on a certain day and what day their checks come in the mail.
These people don't contribute to society now when it's easy so they sure won't do it when everything is in chaos.

It won't be as easy as you make it sound though as far as getting food to the shelves. That scenario would work in a small farming community where they grow corn & beef. Butchering 20 cows from a farmer wouldn't go very far when you have 4 million people in a large city to feed.

I believe the truth is even if you lost 50%-60% of the transportation millions would starve in the populated areas and chaos would erupt through riots, murders & thefts. And it's understandable because people will do anything when their starving.

That's why now, while things are comparatively good people should take steps to ease their lifestyles while they are able to do so.

Store 6-12 months of food

secure a water supply that isn't "city water"

secure a weapon and train with it so you can defend what you do have that others may want.
(including your family)

STORE SEEDS TO GROW FOOD !!! You can only store so much, you have to learn to grow food.

Don't try to plan for every scenario. Just plan in general and build a skill set that will help you in these days.
My plans are very fluid and not written in stone. The reaction will depend on the situation



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 07:57 PM
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and i dont mean to be rude.. and dont know if it is intentional, but here in london in the uk tranny means transvestite (cross dresser).. maybe its the same in the u.s. but to uk users you are actually calling yourself mr transvestite.
if it is intentional, my apologies and we'll carry on.. but just thought i would let you know that..

anyway, what does shtf mean?



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 08:21 PM
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Originally posted by Misterlondon
and i dont mean to be rude.. and dont know if it is intentional, but here in london in the uk tranny means transvestite (cross dresser).. maybe its the same in the u.s. but to uk users you are actually calling yourself mr transvestite.
if it is intentional, my apologies and we'll carry on.. but just thought i would let you know that..

anyway, what does shtf mean?


(face palm)……….


Tranny is electrician slang for transformer.
“We got a couple trannies to change out get the boom truck in here.”
It is also used by mechanics as a slang for transmission.
So it basically stands for “Mr Transformer”

www.thenakedscientists.com...
www.vintageamps.com...

SHTF stands for S(fecal mater) Hits The Fan.
edit on 7-1-2011 by Mr Tranny because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 08:39 PM
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Originally posted by Mr Tranny

Originally posted by Misterlondon
and i dont mean to be rude.. and dont know if it is intentional, but here in london in the uk tranny means transvestite (cross dresser).. maybe its the same in the u.s. but to uk users you are actually calling yourself mr transvestite.
if it is intentional, my apologies and we'll carry on.. but just thought i would let you know that..

anyway, what does shtf mean?


(face palm)……….


Tranny is electrician slang for transformer.
“We got a couple trannies to change out get the boom truck in here.”
It is also used by mechanics as a slang for transmission.
So it basically stands for “Mr Transformer”

www.thenakedscientists.com...
www.vintageamps.com...

SHTF stands for S(fecal mater) Hits The Fan.
edit on 7-1-2011 by Mr Tranny because: (no reason given)


ok.. sorry mate.. i really didnt mean any offence, it just means something different in my world.. just thought id let you know..
but now you explained and i see your picture it makes perfect sense..

thanks for the shtf explanation too, your post makes alot more sense to me now


edit on 7/1/11 by Misterlondon because: (no reason given)

edit on 7/1/11 by Misterlondon because: (no reason given)

edit on 7/1/11 by Misterlondon because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 08:43 PM
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Tranny is electrician slang for transformer. “We got a couple trannies to change out get the boom truck in here.” It is also used by mechanics as a slang for transmission. So it basically stands for “Mr Transformer”


and here I thought it was a homage to Lord Fanny from the Invisibles.

S&F for your excellent post.
should religious fanatics take control post SHTF [thats S Hits The fan, mate], and want to prevent any further progress, these will be the new sheeple.

and a star for Mwood for your contribution, youve hit the nail on the head.
edit on 7-1-2011 by DerepentLEstranger because: added edit & additional comment



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 08:44 PM
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Love your face palm!

You are right, of course. There's a fine line between being prepared and being obsessed. Of course, that's a matter of definition! My spouse thinks I'm obsessed; I think I'm prepared. Naturally lots of it depends on where you find yourself. Preparing for a SHTF from a flat in London is going to be way different than from a single family home already on a residential island. What really gets me laughing, though, is these 'Bug Out Bag scenarios where people actually think it is a viable alternative to 'run for the hills' when they haven't even been camping since they were in the Cub Scouts. So a dozen MREs, a plastic mylar blanket and a Swiss Army knife and you're all set, right dude?

My idea is to be in a situation so that if 'everything broke,' then all things being equal, I could last for a few months, a full year absolute maximum. Short of complete destruction that you might not survive anyway, So beyond the food, shelter, water, warmth issues, you'll need to decide what kind of interactions you will expect from other survivors. If someone is not prepared, the easiest thing for them to do is appropriate your preparedness for themselves. That means security is high on your list. Having a working understanding with your neighbors is probably just as important as being armed with thousands of rounds. I NEVER see this kind of thing discussed in survivalist threads.

It's kind of like that old adage, "A Plan of Battle never survives first contact with the enemy." Just look at Antony & Cleopatra.



Please forgive typos. I need new glasses and can't see the screen very well.



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 09:09 PM
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You are mostly right and I agree with you.
One thing you are not factoring in when this happens is the Human factor. humans are get nervous & scared when things change so much so quickly.



That is the problem with all the “End of civilization” crap that people keep hyping. It makes the situation worse.

If people know that there is plenty of food after this shipment, if they just wait. Then they will behave and help. If they buy into all that “Armageddon” stuff, then they are a lot more likely to cause problems by trying to take what they want by coercion or force because they are convinced that that is the last of it to be had.


It won't be as easy as you make it sound though as far as getting food to the shelves. That scenario would work in a small farming community where they grow corn & beef. Butchering 20 cows from a farmer wouldn't go very far when you have 4 million people in a large city to feed.


Most large cities are surrounded by farmland and pastures. There will be plenty of cows on the hoof locally to satisfy local meat demand. That will give them time to set up supply lines to more distant farms. Remember. The food is available. You just have to get it to where it is needed. The meat that hits the shelves every day doesn’t come out of thin air. Farmers are shipping out product all the time. There will be plenty of farmers waiting to ship the product. You just got to find them.

If the demand is large enough then you can convert a couple buildings into a makeshift slaughter house.

Corn and other products are also readily available. You just have to know where the product is. That is why you have to communicate mouth to mouth with other people that do know where it is.

And there will still be plenty of finished product in warehouses to supply everyone until food processors can be brought back online. The EMP hype just makes it worse because people are more likely to hoard, which will deplete supplies faster when there is absolutely no reason to.



I believe the truth is even if you lost 50%-60% of the transportation millions would starve in the populated areas and chaos would erupt through riots, murders & thefts. And it's understandable because people will do anything when their starving.


Food transportation doesn’t take up anywhere near %50 of the trucks on the road. The overwhelming majority is taken up by shipment to and from factories and hauling other non food goods. If you didn’t have any of the factories going, then you would literally have row after row of trucks sitting idle. Transportation is not a problem.

After a while, the food processors (grain, milk and meat) will be back on line. And normal packaged product shipments can resume. I would honestly be surprised if it took 3 days to get most of the food plants up and running under generator power.

edit on 7-1-2011 by Mr Tranny because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 09:30 PM
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EMP damage is something few understand.

There are a lot of variables.

IC devices will be damaged but the antenna length is the main factor power lines are the main antenna.

A hand held radio may not be damaged but one plugged into a wall socket may be.

Many modern generators have IC circuits for voltage control.
Many diesels have computers that control emissions.
All modern car and trucks have computers in them for emission control.

But most cars and trucks can take a lighting strike without killing the computers. lighting has a EMP pulse connected

If a electrical idem will be damaged by may never be known until after a EMP event has happened.

I have been a survivalist for 40 years since i was in the Navy and i first learned of EMP damage. Still there is no clear answer to the problem of or what will be damaged by a EMP pulse.

My only advice is if a EMP attack happens is to test everything under power and discard anything that does not work.
And if you have a chance to before a attack unplug everything you can and ground it to a good earth ground,
this limits the antenna factor of the power grid.

Some idems that should have been damaged will likely still work and some idems that should have survived will likely not.

This is what i am going to do.



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 09:36 PM
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Let me add to my last post some.

Refrigeration will not be a problem for grain stocks. It is only a problem for meat stocks. If refrigeration is limited, then you have a limited amount of time between slaughter and consumption. like the good old days. Good thing is there is slaughterhouses located all across the country. Some of the biggest ones are in the biggest cities. And another good thing is that most refer trucks will most likely still work, so long distance transportation isn’t a problem. They will probably use refer trucks as make shift freezers for local food stores. They have done that before in power outages.

And, for those of you that say all newer diesel trucks have electronic engine controls, so they will be dead……….. Remember, I live in Indiana. Cummins engine test facility isn’t that far away. I know where they make the electronic engine control unit for them. I have been in the factory more than once. I know how they test them. I know what they are designed to tolerate. My sister helped design the firmware that they use.

They are designed to meet life critical requirements for use in hospitals, FAA requirements for use in air ports, and ocean bound ship requirements. They are EMP hardened. The people designing them are not brain dead!

I can safely say that if your truck has a Cummins engine, then it will NOT be affected by an EMP.

edit on 7-1-2011 by Mr Tranny because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 10:50 PM
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Wow, one of the most sensible posts I've read on this forum. Don't expect it to get much traction though, your ruining far too survivalist/anarchist wet dreams.
Truth be told, the SHTF scenario's usually discussed in places like this are so far fetched as to be almost laughable. A slow decline is a much more distinct possibility, and being somewhat self sufficient is never a bad thing. Personally, I'm more interested in reducing my cost of living by growing food and such than really preparing for armageddon.
People like to talk about TSHTF situations like they are just going to happen all of a sudden. I wonder how people will know? Will the local news suddenly broadcast "Attention all people,TSHHTF,grab your BOB's and hit the road"? If you live in an area prone to volcanoes,earthquakes or tidal waves, perhaps such fears are founded. For the rest of us, I think we need to relax a bit and take a good look at reality,apart from paranoia.



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 10:58 PM
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never called them trannys,
always called them cans.
youre a journeyman?
5 years school here,
did 25 years of work, got out of it.
you really see it playing out like you say?
on a start up?



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 11:27 PM
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I think the biggest theme i see over and over is.
"As soon as SHTF Im going to get my bug out bag* leave everything i own and live in the woods"

*the bug out bag is a magical bag that has everything you will ever need for living in the wild

The other thing is that people think that morality will go out the window if SHTF scenario happens. This logic also fails. Most examples of this are riots where people loot things they want, sure people will kill each other but murderers are the ones who murder. I like many other people don't kill people because it is wrong not because it is against the law.This goes with rape (which also comes up all the time in this board). Also with "technology being useless" why would anyone be looting? The whole idea of not going to the store to get food because "the store will be empty" also fails, if a supermarket is cleaned out of food that is because people cleaned it out. When SHTF food does not magically just go poof.
People have tow major fixed ideas on survival. One is that they always survive for the most part uneffected and the other is that everyone is out to rape and kill them.
When SHTF im staying out of the wilderness all those guys want to do is kill everyone in the name of "defence".



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 12:02 AM
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Originally posted by HappilyEverAfter
never called them trannys,
always called them cans.
youre a journeyman?
5 years school here,
did 25 years of work, got out of it.
you really see it playing out like you say?
on a start up?


On the more comical days I have heard them called every thing in the freaking book, including “those no good sons of b#$%$”

No, I don’t do wiring.(well.. none that is on the record anyway, screw those wire jockeys
) I work with the things at the ends of the wires. The stuff inside the box.

Electronics, fiber optics, networking, power, transmission, communications, and control.

Need a custom one of a kind control interface. Can do
Need a custom transformer wound for a welder or power supply. Can do.
Need to set up an RF control system. can do.
Need to build an RF amplifier for that control system. Can do.
Need to build a protection/lockout system for an existing installation. can do.
You need a PBX for your phone system. I have got two sitting within 20 feet of me. If you want IP based, then I got to order one.

I have also been know to work on injector pumps, drive trains, and hydraulics for bulldozers/tractors and such when the need arises (for various neighbors.) To say I fix a lot of stuff for my neighbors is an understatement.

Generally, if everyone has given up on it, and walked away, call me, I will have it working in an hour. People constantly complain about me and my magic touch. A team can be working on something for days. I walk up to it, wiggle this, push that, and it hums to life…. Pissed off more than one know it all……….


I have a bunch of 1000A SCR’s sitting around…….. ow the ideas….
Have over 2000 vacuum tubes on hand. I guess I can single handedly rebuild the nation’s communications system with tubes.


To say that I find the whole EMP thing a bit of a laugh, would be an understatement.

The only thing that peaks my curiosity is the fact that I would love to get my hands on some real EMP damaged equipment. I would love to put the scopes, meters, and analyzers on the unit to find out what parts of it is actually damaged. I have never built a full size EMP test cell. Just one large enough to put phones and calculators in. Maybe one of these rainy days….. Just need a large enough space to put a car in.

People think I am gifted, I just think everyone else is stupid.

edit on 8-1-2011 by Mr Tranny because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 09:24 AM
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reply to post by Mr Tranny
 


Youre one of "those" guys !?
The ones there's not enough of?
No wonder
the wire jockey comment.
Since we're doing resumes' and to bring clarity, I guess
currently in communications, television/internet/phone, it suits the abused body now at this age.
Started long ago in residential/commercial and went to school at the same time,
seen everything from substations, electric furnaces, camera systems, prisons, freq drives, hospitals, pbx,
head ends, sat links, overhead cranes, design and calcs, now I relax at a desk during the day and solve problems.

Here's probably one of the best short descriptions for reference.



And again, a little more technical but also a great example,
A high-altitude nuclear detonation produces an immediate flux of gamma rays from the nuclear reactions within the device. These photons in turn produce high energy free electrons by Compton scattering at altitudes between (roughly) 20 and 40 km. These electrons are then trapped in the Earth’s magnetic field, giving rise to an oscillating electric current. This current is asymmetric in general and gives rise to a rapidly rising radiated electromagnetic field called an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Because the electrons are trapped essentially simultaneously, a very large electromagnetic source radiates coherently.
The pulse can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. The first recorded EMP incident accompanied a high-altitude nuclear test over the South Pacific and resulted in power system failures as far away as Hawaii. A large device detonated at 400–500 km over Kansas would affect all of CONUS. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.

The EMP produced by the Compton electrons typically lasts for about 1 microsecond, and this signal is called HEMP. In addition to the prompt EMP, scattered gammas and inelastic gammas produced by weapon neutrons produce an “intermediate time” signal from about 1 microsecond to 1 second. The energetic debris entering the ionosphere produces ionization and heating of the E-region. In turn, this causes the geomagnetic field to “heave,” producing a “late-time” magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) EMP generally called a heave signal.

Initially, the plasma from the weapon is slightly conducting; the geomagnetic field cannot penetrate this volume and is displaced as a result. This impulsive distortion of the geomagnetic field was observed worldwide in the case of the STARFISH test. To be sure, the size of the signal from this process is not large, but systems connected to long lines (e.g., power lines, telephone wires, and tracking wire antennas) are at risk because of the large size of the induced current. The additive effects of the MHD-EMP can cause damage to unprotected civilian and military systems that depend on or use long-line cables. Small, isolated, systems tend to be unaffected.
Military systems must survive all aspects of the EMP, from the rapid spike of the early time events to the longer duration heave signal. One of the principal problems in assuring such survival is the lack of test data from actual high-altitude nuclear explosions. Only a few such experiments were carried out before the LTBT took effect, and at that time the theoretical understanding of the phenomenon of HEMP was relatively poor. No high-altitude tests have been conducted by the United States since 1963. In addition to the more familiar high-yield tests mentioned above, three small devices were exploded in the Van Allen belts as part of Project Argus. That experiment was intended to explore the methods by which electrons were trapped and traveled along magnetic field lines.

Although your body will not feel the immediate effects of emp, to understand that life systems will be affected is very important,
certain installations across the country are protected to a degree but the public in general are not,
you will go without phone and power that is a fact,
for how long is not determinable because firstly this will be an initial event with no precedent to follow.
Human life, will go on, IF people behave themselves and act as a collective support, but in all honesty I really dont see that happening so easily,
There are ways to protect against effects, some are simple some are natural to the design of the devices.


Can we know everything about an outcome?
Not unless we have been involved in government testing and have access to the data,
but we can be logically prepared to deal with anything and hope for a workable outcome.

To be honest, our grid is at best, a mishmash of added components and tapped into confusion to begin with.
Worrying about an emp, I guess would be valid, but I'm more concerned about it's standing health and current conditon anyways, it's old, it's maxed out, and the electric companies dont want to put the capital into it to upgrade.

There's a ton of stuff to read about this, and alot of testing done prior that I would love to get my hands on,
mostly the space testing.(yes they have created emps in space, in orbit, nice huh?)
You behave yourself tranny and 'respect' the tugger man,
someones got to pull the wire
we all start somewhere.



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 10:02 AM
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Hi Mr Tranny, I totally got your thread, nothing confusing about it. I tried to express something similar in a wholly different website forum, and I also got the "I ain't got a clue what you are talking about, you lost me." It is a --complicated-- concept, if one does not think long and hard about how to present it in an easy-to-get way.
Everytime I hear a --specific-- SHTF scenario being touted, I take it with a giant bag of salt and go on living my everyday life as usual. HOWEVER, I have no doubt that some kind of ELE incident ---could--- take place. I am one of those disabled people that the ultra far right wing anarchist Libertarians can't stand. They want to live their life like in the cowboy old west and shoot you if you come onto their property, which a post SHTF would allow, --in their minds---, and someone like me would be sitting in an alley by a dumpster waiting to die of starvation like the society of Charles Dickens. But are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? These types rave about Illuminattic human hygene, but would be the first ones to rally behind putting everyone who isn't like them, on cattle car trains and off to the ovens. Huh.
But after anySHTF situation, if EVERYONE works together and HELPS each other and those who can't, instead of, I-GOT-FOR-ME-AND-MINE, innovative inventive thinking can go a long way. It doesn't have to be Mad Max. Yes, an anvil would never be affected by an EMP, but an anvil can be hoarded away by one greedy selfish person.
"It is almost as if they are hoping situation X will happen so they can be justified in their hatred."
edit on 8-1-2011 by simone50m because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 11:36 AM
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Just keep in mind people, all the above is if you ASSUME every thing with a semiconductor is destroyed with an EMP.

Just a hint from the peanut gallery……….. No it won’t…………..

EMP is way overrated. I would be surprised if 10% of all devices was damaged. Same with sea levels rising, global warming, and all that other crap. It is way overrated.

Earthquakes on the other hand….. There is one fault line that scares me #less. Considering my location, It should be obvious which one that is.



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 11:42 AM
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Plus, I cannot see any magnitude earthquake causing a post ELE Mad Max world.



posted on Jan, 8 2011 @ 01:34 PM
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Hey Mr. Tranny and company,

I agree with many of your sentiments. I wear the label of "self-sufficiency enthusiast" because in the back of my mind is always the question of "what if it never collapses?" I want my family to have a good life if the world DOESN'T end, and practice ethical values in any case.

I posted a thread about Coronal Mass Ejections (solar flares) and the Carrington Event of 1859, which seems to have caused an EMP-style event.

In my plans, I differentiate between three classes.
-equipment which might only be non-functional during the EMP/CME episode per se.
-equipment that would be permanently damaged by the event
-equipment that would probably not be harmed, but is dependent upon a network that might require lengthy repairs.

There was a CME that disrupted much of western Canada's grid in the early 1990's. Some of their systems weren't functional until they were replaced several years later. ( I think the terrain of Canada was at least part of the problem.

In my hunting gear (which is stored alongside what could be called a "bug out bag,") I keep a hand-held GPS device. I use it primarily for cataloging deer habitat, and successful hunts. It may be the case that the GPS would not work for several days or a week during an epic CME. But since the satelites it relies on have no long antennas or power lines, I personally expect that many of the satelites would continue broadcasting from uninterrupted courses. So it would be useable after the event. However, I keep a compass handy, with a handwritten list of benchmarks and lat-lon tables, just in case.

I also keep a crank radio that receives am, fm, ham traffic, etc. It is stored in our tornado safe-room. After a CME/EMP, it would only take a minute to determine that the radio was fried, and set it aside. And if it does work, the ham radio and NOAA information might alter our plans and save lives.

Likewise I have data backed up on CDs. It might be useless. But maybe not, and they don't take up much space, while holding whole libraries of information. I also have a "shredwood" library. I own LEDs and oil lamps, a freezer in the garage full of meat, but a smoker out back in case the power goes out, to salvage at least some of the freezer contents in case of all-hell. I have some sausage in the freezer. I also have our Easter ham hanging in the garage.

In all things, the careful planner will ask, "what is the price of being wrong?"

This applies, not only to the vast public who make no real preparations, but to those of us who do prepare for the worst-case scenario. I prepared for Y2K, even though I personally didn't believe it would amount to anything. I prepared, not because I believed the hype, but because I hate getting caught unprepared. And besides, paper towel prices eventually did go up, and we were saved from the inflation. And we love to camp anyway, so the gear was good to have. And it turned out that all the gold-buying I did back in 1998 wasn't nearly so paranoid as the in-laws thought.



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