Recently having watched movies such as "The Hunt for Red October" and "Crimson Tide" and "WarGames" and played games and sims such as "Defcon" and
"Dangerous Waters", etc I have taken an interest in this subject and have a few questions to ask the opinions of some of the knowledgeable people on
In terms of a potential US first strike on China, what effective deterrents does the PLA have against America in general and what repercussions
would there be?
For example, if the US military believes it can successfully launch a nuclear or thermonuclear first strike on mainland China, would it get away
with it with nearly absolute impunity
or would it calculate and accept "acceptable" loss and causality rates?
With everything that is going on in the world today (Peak Oil, EROEI, population overshoot, resource depletion, petrodollar hegemony, quantitative
easing and the currency and trade wars, demand destruction and pricing out of other nations, etc..) certainty it would appear to the superpowers that
we are living in an era where mutual "cooperation" may not be feasible anymore (despite the hype of globalization, just in time logistics, etc) and it
could be a "winner takes all" proposition..
If that is the case, naturally America may feel that it has the most to gain and least to loss (probabilistically) than any other nation by attempting
a first strike on China. Even though Russia has publicly avowed to be China's strategic partner and Allie, we can't forget the fact that America may
have cut a deal with Russia to carve up China and reap the benefits.. So therefore China may not be able to "count on Russia" to help deter it against
a potential US first strike that could decapitate the Chinese government and informational, economical, transportation, and military
So I would like to know, what options does China have to deter against this?
* Could it build a doomsday device in the form of a HUGE underground thermonuclear weapon that could go off and blow up the entire earth into bits and
pieces, and use this as leverage against any plans of US to devastate China in a nuclear first strike..
* Is it still true that nuclear submarines capable of launching thermonuclear missiles/warheads remain unpreventable deterrent? If America was to
launch an surprise all out first strike on China today, what options would the Chinese have?
I have read that Chinese nuclear subs are much more
louder than US/USSR subs, and that although China MAY have the range to strike US from their own waters, Chinese continental l shelf waters are so
lacking in depth that American spy satellites can spot the subs when those subs are in territorial waters. Can Chinese nuclear subs do substantial
damage in an retaliation strike against the US? Does the US have Star Wars systems that can shoot down those nuke missiles? Maybe the US already know
where each and every China sub are in real time?
* Or conversely, since Chinese since ancient times have historically show to be appeasers and pacifiers, would Chinese government "accept" a US
first strike on China given that they know that "revenge" is not in their genes and attacking America out of vengeance is not in the Chinese leader's
blood? What I mean is, perhaps Chinese doctrine is to deter American first strike, but when push comes to shove the PLA may take the "soft" side of
the MAD doctrine and be psychologically defeated which leads to being physically annihilated. If America were to do first strike against China,
obviously they will implant some kind of false flag and decoy strategy whereby perhaps Obama calls Hu and tells him the USA had a glitch and
"accidentally" set off a couple of nukes and that for China not to worry and don't attack and those nukes will be recalled in short order.. Hu would
not want to start WWIII and if he launched a counteract and it proved that US wasn't doing a first strike then of course America will obliterate
China.. So I mean US may use these psychological tricks to get Chinese to stand off for so long until the last minute and it is too late.
What do you think?
edit on 5-1-2011 by defcon54321 because: (no reason given)