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Asymmetric warfare: China PLA nuclear subs and the doctrine of MAD

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posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 06:08 PM
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Recently having watched movies such as "The Hunt for Red October" and "Crimson Tide" and "WarGames" and played games and sims such as "Defcon" and "Dangerous Waters", etc I have taken an interest in this subject and have a few questions to ask the opinions of some of the knowledgeable people on here...

In terms of a potential US first strike on China, what effective deterrents does the PLA have against America in general and what repercussions would there be?

For example, if the US military believes it can successfully launch a nuclear or thermonuclear first strike on mainland China, would it get away with it with nearly absolute impunity or would it calculate and accept "acceptable" loss and causality rates?

With everything that is going on in the world today (Peak Oil, EROEI, population overshoot, resource depletion, petrodollar hegemony, quantitative easing and the currency and trade wars, demand destruction and pricing out of other nations, etc..) certainty it would appear to the superpowers that we are living in an era where mutual "cooperation" may not be feasible anymore (despite the hype of globalization, just in time logistics, etc) and it could be a "winner takes all" proposition..

If that is the case, naturally America may feel that it has the most to gain and least to loss (probabilistically) than any other nation by attempting a first strike on China. Even though Russia has publicly avowed to be China's strategic partner and Allie, we can't forget the fact that America may have cut a deal with Russia to carve up China and reap the benefits.. So therefore China may not be able to "count on Russia" to help deter it against a potential US first strike that could decapitate the Chinese government and informational, economical, transportation, and military infrastructure.



So I would like to know, what options does China have to deter against this?

* Could it build a doomsday device in the form of a HUGE underground thermonuclear weapon that could go off and blow up the entire earth into bits and pieces, and use this as leverage against any plans of US to devastate China in a nuclear first strike..

* Is it still true that nuclear submarines capable of launching thermonuclear missiles/warheads remain unpreventable deterrent? If America was to launch an surprise all out first strike on China today, what options would the Chinese have? I have read that Chinese nuclear subs are much more louder than US/USSR subs, and that although China MAY have the range to strike US from their own waters, Chinese continental l shelf waters are so lacking in depth that American spy satellites can spot the subs when those subs are in territorial waters. Can Chinese nuclear subs do substantial damage in an retaliation strike against the US? Does the US have Star Wars systems that can shoot down those nuke missiles? Maybe the US already know where each and every China sub are in real time?

* Or conversely, since Chinese since ancient times have historically show to be appeasers and pacifiers, would Chinese government "accept" a US first strike on China given that they know that "revenge" is not in their genes and attacking America out of vengeance is not in the Chinese leader's blood? What I mean is, perhaps Chinese doctrine is to deter American first strike, but when push comes to shove the PLA may take the "soft" side of the MAD doctrine and be psychologically defeated which leads to being physically annihilated. If America were to do first strike against China, obviously they will implant some kind of false flag and decoy strategy whereby perhaps Obama calls Hu and tells him the USA had a glitch and "accidentally" set off a couple of nukes and that for China not to worry and don't attack and those nukes will be recalled in short order.. Hu would not want to start WWIII and if he launched a counteract and it proved that US wasn't doing a first strike then of course America will obliterate China.. So I mean US may use these psychological tricks to get Chinese to stand off for so long until the last minute and it is too late.

What do you think?
edit on 5-1-2011 by defcon54321 because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 6 2011 @ 02:03 AM
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Originally posted by defcon54321
Or conversely, since Chinese since ancient times have historically show to be appeasers and pacifiers, would Chinese government "accept" a US first strike on China given that they know that "revenge" is not in their genes and attacking America out of vengeance is not in the Chinese leader's blood? What do you think?


Clearly, there are those who would disagree that the Chinese are "appeasers and pacifiers", such as your average Tibetan and as your average “Chinese Leader” sits in a political system that has no conscience or scruple in treating their citizenry with contempt (e.g. human rights) I don’t doubt the Chinese are more than capable of unrestrained “vengeance” – take a look at recent history.

Like all “what if” type approaches it does not take reality into account. I have difficulty in considering under what circumstances the USA with all its checks and balances and democratic processes would launch a nuclear attack against China.

In addition (to add to the reality) China has comparatively fewer warheads than the US and would not be capable of overwhelming the USA.

Regards

edit on 6/1/2011 by paraphi because: to correct formatting



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