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US Employment December 2010: -2.2% (non-manufacturing), -1.8% (manufacturing)

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posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 02:15 PM
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We just witnessed how US government and mainstream media openly lied to us about employment figures

Services ISM Beats Expectations While Drop In Employment Index Confirms ADP Beat Was An Aberration


www.zerohedge.com...

Following the too good to be true ADP number, the December Services ISM number came at 57.1 on a 55.7 consensus and an improvement from November's 55- a multi-year high. Yet the usual casual glance behind the scenes confirms once again that disparate economic data series are in complete contradiction with each other: the employment index declined from 52.7 to 50.5, which makes absolutely no sense in light of the alleged surge on ADP service-related jobs. Even Goldman has nothing good to say: "The decline in the employment index, however, suggests that the strong ADP employment number has considerable statistical distortion and should therefore be interpreted with care." But such is life when one runs a ministry of truth with far too many controllable variables. Furthermore, the economic growth through inventory accumulation is continuing, as inventories increased from 51.5 to 52.5. And most importantly for EPS numbers, kiss those margins good bye: prices paid increased from 63.2 to 70.0.

Below are the survey respondents comments on the economy:

* "Overall business climate remains reasonably positive." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
* "Pricing pressures are starting to heat up." (Construction)
* "Outlook for 2011 is positive with an increase in spending." (Finance & Insurance)
* "Looks like more budget reductions are coming in the next year." (Educational Services)
* "Cotton prices are moving upward, but prices are being kept in line as the overall Asian market cools somewhat."(Retail Trade)
* "Business picking up for holiday — above expectations." (Transportation & Warehousing)

Summary table:


And most amusingly, Goldman, which was stunned by today's ADP number and said that confirmation of the tremendous beat would be found in the ISM data, has absolutely nothing to be happy about considering the drop in the employment number:

BOTTOM LINE: The ISM nonmanufacturing survey rises ahead of expectations in December, as the indexes for new orders and business activity rise sharply. The decline in the employment index, however, suggests that the strong ADP employment number has considerable statistical distortion and should therefore be interpreted with care.

US-MAP
ISM nonmfg index +3 (3, +1) with +1 judgmental adjustment for strong composition.

KEY NUMBERS:
ISM index up 2.1 points to 57.1 in Dec vs. GS 56, median forecast 55.7.

MAIN POINTS:
1. The ISM nonmfg headline index rises ahead of expectations, up from 55.0 to 57.1 in December. This increase is due to sharp improvements in the index for new orders (up 5.3 points to 63.0) and business activity (up 6.5 points to 63.5). On the basis of this composition, we have judgmentally adjusted the US-MAP reading, which was on the borderline already. The supplier deliveries index eases by 1 point to 51.5.

2. The employment index falls in December (by 2.2 points to 50.5). This decline contrasts sharply with today's upside surprise in the ADP employment report for December-which was mainly driven by gains in employment at service-providing firms-and thus suggests that the ADP surprise should be discounted significantly in considering whether any revision should be made to expectations for Friday's employment report. We continue to evaluate this issue in light of all the new information; pending that review our estimate of a 100k increase in total nonfarm payrolls remains unchanged.

Which is why as we suggested some time ago, the US department of data fudging should import a lot more Chinese individuals who are far better at manipulating bull# data than the amateurs we have right now.




posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 02:23 PM
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reply to post by wisdomnotemotion
 


Christ that's ugly. I was already cynical about all the up numbers they were citing for the 4th quarter, simply because I understand the concept of Seasonal Work. When you look at this it just gets grimmer.



posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 02:30 PM
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Everything in this is an illusion, amazing how making up numbers, gets them a pat on the back.



posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 02:37 PM
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reply to post by wisdomnotemotion
 


Thanks for posting this Wisdom,

Excellent find! I been following this all day on Zerohedge and thought about making a post myself. I suppose the reason I haven't thus far is due to a combination of thinking too much about birds falling out of the sky and being slightly under the weather.

Anyhow, I think this is a great example of the "Boiling Frog" syndrome.

Boiling Frog

This is just another attempt to keep the water cooler so we don't jump out of the proverbial pot. These people actually want us to believe that employment is showing healthy signs because some fu$#ing people were able to get a few jobs of working behind the cash register at the mall during the Christmas Season?



posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 02:47 PM
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Thanks a million for posting. I feel so used and angry



posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 03:42 PM
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reply to post by wisdomnotemotion
 



But such is life when one runs a ministry of truth with far too many controllable variables. Furthermore, the economic growth through inventory accumulation is continuing, as inventories increased from 51.5 to 52.5. And most importantly for EPS numbers, kiss those margins good bye: prices paid increased from 63.2 to 70.0.


Been talking about this for sometime too.

I don't believe any number the government puts out... They certainly do run a ministry of truth. 2011 is going to SUCK!


That doesn't seem to matter right now though.

The market is CALLING for deflation right now to bring down costs. The market can't tolerate price increases because of the very high unemployment rate and lack of confidence. 40 million people on food stamps and what not.

And yet, the government is forcing prices up through QE, and now these companies margins are being squeezed because the cost of raw materials is going up, their customer base can't afford the increase-and now they're stuck between a rock and a hard place....Shares plummet. Now they have a set of choices, all predicated on taking huge chances with little room for error:

1 lay people off and buy a little time while keeping prices low-

2 Raise prices and keep your employees even though this will virtually guarantee that you'll be operating at a skin of your teeth margin, and if prices of raw materials don't stabilize and instead keep going up, the good intention will just turn into postponed pain, and the layoffs will happen anyway.

3 Lay people off and raise prices. Which will also fuel the inflation cycle. Mind you, no where in there do we see wage increases, because that would further squeeze margins. So the price inflation in commodities, and the lack of purchasing power through devaluation and unemployment is squeezing businesses from both sides. What do you do?

4 Restructure(if even remotely possible), file for bankruptcy and manage your debts, or go out of business-meaning, KABOOM.

My guess is companies are going to start laying people off real soon, and the price of goods going up is going to feed on the unemployment and vice versa. This is a BAD position to be in. If wages were going up with inflation we would be able to weather this storm, but that would mean businesses are operating at wide margins, which is not the case. So, Kaboom, basically.


I hope it's not in poor taste to quote myself, but I believe this is what will happen over the next quarter or so. not sure if people will get it even when it starts happening.
edit on 5-1-2011 by projectvxn because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2011 @ 11:44 PM
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reply to post by projectvxn
 



This revelation is merely the tip of the iceberg. Unfortunately, people will still be deluded by mainstream media lies as long as they don't care to look into the entire details/statistics of information.

There will sure be imbalances soon. I presume that Federal Reserve and its puppet companies have been absorbing all the irregularities in recent events. That's why there's no noise, just blossoming flower stories everywhere.

Ability to see the truth is the most gracious gift from God right now, regardless of religion, race and status.



posted on Jan, 7 2011 @ 07:32 AM
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Originally posted by wisdomnotemotion
reply to post by projectvxn
 



This revelation is merely the tip of the iceberg. Unfortunately, people will still be deluded by mainstream media lies as long as they don't care to look into the entire details/statistics of information.

There will sure be imbalances soon. I presume that Federal Reserve and its puppet companies have been absorbing all the irregularities in recent events. That's why there's no noise, just blossoming flower stories everywhere.

Ability to see the truth is the most gracious gift from God right now, regardless of religion, race and status.




The bogus government data and mainstream media propaganda are on full swing.




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